Schleck should give up yellow.

[jobiwan]

Hopefully Andy has finally heeded the wise words of Alfred Lord Tennyson:
"Tis better to have attacked and lost, then never to have attacked at all"

 

[Franklin]

What is classed as 'good' though? Earlier you ruled out Pantani as an exception to the rule saying his final TT was 'fantastic'. Now, Pantani came 3rd in the TT, but let's compare times.

In last TT 1998: Pantani lost to Ullrich by 2'35
In last TT 2011: Schleck lost to Evans by 2'31

How is one fantastic and the other terrible? The loses are virtually identical.

Admittedly, Pantani's TT was 9km longer, but he had also lost 4'20 in a TT earlier in the Tour (and 43s in the Prologue).

Surely, it's a complete accident and coincidence

I mean, sure, Pantani.. a fluke! His last TT in the Giro.. a fluke!

Every single winner of the TdF... also a fluke?

Van Impe.. he was Epoing so hard his ears bleeded

TT-ing is so unimportant versus the real thing! The mountains! lemond.. always won in the mountains. Fignon.. pure climber. Hinault.. known for his panache in the mountains.

I have bridges to sell you guys.

Not a single response has clearly shown why Shrek doesn't need to improve his TT.... All I see is : he needs to win more in the mountains! And yet nobody finds it odd that not a single climber managed to do without a good TT. Not a single one!

Because no. I don't think it's remotely accurate to say losing 2.39 against Ulrich is the same as losing 2.39 against Cadel. Call me crazy when I say Ulrich was a much better TT specialist than Cadel ever will be.

And just call me crazy for pointing out a fact from the statistic. I simply do not believe this rule is easily broken.

 

[Duartista]

Surely, it's a complete accident and coincidence

I mean, sure, Pantani.. a fluke! His last TT in the Giro.. a fluke!

Every single winner of the TdF... also a fluke?

Van Impe.. he was Epoing so hard his ears bleeded

TT-ing is so unimportant versus the real thing! The mountains! lemond.. always won in the mountains. Fignon.. pure climber. Hinault.. known for his panache in the mountains.

I have bridges to sell you guys.

Not a single response has clearly shown why Shrek doesn't need to improve his TT.... All I see is : he needs to win more in the mountains! And yet nobody finds it odd that not a single climber managed to do without a good TT. Not a single one!

Because no. I don't think it's remotely accurate to say losing 2.39 against Ulrich is the same as losing 2.39 against Cadel. Call me crazy when I say Ulrich was a much better TT specialist than Cadel ever will be.

And just call me crazy for pointing out a fact from the statistic. I simply do not believe this rule is easily broken.

All of the examples you give are from Tours with far more TT'ing than has been the case since 2008, and are therefore irrelevant. No-one is arguing that Schleck would have much chance in a TDF with two 50km TTs. In a TDF with one TT, he has a chance.

BTW, when Bahamontes won the TDF he lost 6 minutes in the final time trial.

 

[Franklin]

All of the examples you give are from Tours with far more TT'ing than has been the case since 2008, and are therefore irrelevant.

Indeed, even the last tours the TT was irrelevant.

No-one is arguing that Schleck would have much chance in a TDF with two 50km TTs. In a TDF with one TT, he has a chance.

But the odd, odd thing is that it's still the TT that decides. Maybe, just maybe the granite rule still stands?

BTW, when Bahamontes won the TDF he lost 6 minutes in the final time trial.

A good find! 52 years ago, but yes, that is an exception.

The fact we need to go 52 years back surely has no bearing whatsoever on the significance of the granitre rule

I mean Schleck is a world class better than Bahamontes.

 

[Sophistic]

The comparison between Pantani and Schleck dont make much sense because of their relative weight. Schleck is heavier than Conti & about the same as Evans, so the absolute power output is there to be competitive in ITTs.. Pantani was 15kg lighter than Armstrong & Ullrich, so there was no way around losing time to them in flat ITTs.

 

[Angliru]

The comparison between Pantani and Schleck dont make much sense because of their relative weight. Schleck is heavier than Conti & about the same as Evans, so the absolute power output is there to be competitive in ITTs.. Pantani was 15kg lighter than Armstrong & Ullrich, so there was no way around losing time to them in flat ITTs.

Is weight always so important? If that were the case most of the sprinters and cobbled classic specialists would clobber the gc riders in the ITT's that are primarily flat. Training time spent on the TT bike and natural ability has to come into play at some point. I'm sure Cancellara would love to have won the Tour ITT but 2 lightweights finished ahead of him. Certainly he was fatigued from his domestique duties but so were Evans, Contador and even Martin. Of course motivation to do well has some bearing as well and the gc riders' have a bit more on the line than the rest.

 

[AussieGoddess]

If there's more than one ITT he would. 6 minutes at least. I also bet you that Fab will gone in a year when he doesn't get his classics team (he's got one eye on Thor and how he's being looked after at BMC). Without Canc in the team there's another lost 5 minutes in the TTT and keeping the Shleck's out of trouble in week one.

I'm finding it hard to see how either of the Shlecks can win a Tour in their careers. They're fairly good climbers but both are as thick as two bricks and have not a lot else to offer. Maybe if it was still 1998 they could "prepare" the old way which might have helped them in the ITT.

I think Andy is incredibly talented. Certainly talented enough to win the Tour.

IF (and only if) he gets a new DS/tactician that he will actually listen to.

I think a lot will depend on how their end of season review this season goes.
The results they got
- 2nd at MSR, RVV, PR, LBL (2nd and 3rd) ...and I cant see them beating Gilbert at GdL so 2nd at best at that too ....
- 2nd and 3rd at the Tour ...

If they look at these results and say 'well we got podiums in everything, we are a new team and had a GREAT season .... and they clap each other on the back and say how wonderful they all are .... then Andy will never win.

If on the other hand, they actually review the results, the riders and team they had, and say ... we should have won most of those - what did we do wrong? What should we have done? What do we learn? ....... then perhaps Andy has a chance.

He needs to overcome his massive ego problem, and accept that he is not yet a champion .... and one day he might become one

 

[Orvieto]

Andy will probably win a Tour one day, but will likely look back on his career and think that he should have won more. This year was a missed opportunity.

He shouldn't give up on winning the yellow jersey, but he should stop focusing on only winning the yellow jersey. He needs to race more and by race more, I mean compete more, rather than riding races as training exercises. This year showed just how much he has to learn. He has to learn that you can't always win a tour with a single day's dramatic attack. He's got to learn to turn up and compete on parcours that he doesn't particularly like. He's got to learn to press his advantage when there is one. He's got to learn how to use his team, especially Frank. He's got to learn that the Tour isn't his private duel with Contador and that there are other riders in the race who will beat him if he doesn't beat them.

Will he ever learn? Maybe not, maybe he can't learn, but the way to do so is to race and compete more often. He needs to learn to win.

 

[Swabian Lass]

Yes, I think he made a big mistake this year by focusing on Contador. He didn't start to watch Evans until it was too late.

If it's really true that he doesn't train (I'm never sure how true that is, I find it difficult to believe, but what do I know?), then he needs a DS who's going to give him a good kicking and get him to work harder and crucially to race more. The only way to learn race tactics is to race.

He's also got to learn that there is no point having one of the strongest teams in the world (on paper) unless you get out there as a leader and deliver the goods for them. I think that one of things Cavendish gets right is understanding that he wins the race, but that's because of the work his team puts in up to that point. Leopard Trek will find it hard to hang on to riders if they don't think that he can compete.

 

[Angliru]

Yes, I think he made a big mistake this year by focusing on Contador. He didn't start to watch Evans until it was too late.

If it's really true that he doesn't train (I'm never sure how true that is, I find it difficult to believe, but what do I know?), then he needs a DS who's going to give him a good kicking and get him to work harder and crucially to race more. The only way to learn race tactics is to race.

He's also got to learn that there is no point having one of the strongest teams in the world (on paper) unless you get out there as a leader and deliver the goods for them. I think that one of things Cavendish gets right is understanding that he wins the race, but that's because of the work his team puts in up to that point. Leopard Trek will find it hard to hang on to riders if they don't think that he can compete.

I don't believe anyone says that AS doesn't train, just that one of his ds' stated that he doesn't like to train and prefers to get his miles in in races.

 

[Damiano Machiavelli]

I don't believe anyone says that AS doesn't train, just that one of his ds' stated that he doesn't like to train and prefers to get his miles in in races.

What races? He spends his time boozing during the few races that he does do.

Neither of the Schlecks was in good form this year. They were not glass cranking around France because they were scared of Contador. They did not have the form to do anything else.

 

[ManInFull]

Andy will probably win a Tour one day, but will likely look back on his career and think that he should have won more. This year was a missed opportunity.

He shouldn't give up on winning the yellow jersey, but he should stop focusing on only winning the yellow jersey. He needs to race more and by race more, I mean compete more, rather than riding races as training exercises. This year showed just how much he has to learn. He has to learn that you can't always win a tour with a single day's dramatic attack. He's got to learn to turn up and compete on parcours that he doesn't particularly like. He's got to learn to press his advantage when there is one. He's got to learn how to use his team, especially Frank. He's got to learn that the Tour isn't his private duel with Contador and that there are other riders in the race who will beat him if he doesn't beat them.

Will he ever learn? Maybe not, maybe he can't learn, but the way to do so is to race and compete more often. He needs to learn to win.

The bottom line is that he didn't have the form that he had in 2010. Because of that, he couldn't drop any of the GC contenders in the mountains. Instead, he had to make a last-ditch effort in hopes of getting time on Cadel.

 

[Damiano Machiavelli]

The bottom line is that he didn't have the form that he had in 2010. Because of that, he couldn't drop any of the GC contenders in the mountains. Instead, he had to make a last-ditch effort in hopes of getting time on Cadel.

Uh-oh. Now you have done it. Dozens of aussies will soon pour in to express outrage at the suggestion that Evans' rivals were riding in subpar form or had crashed out or were not invited.

 

[Angliru]

What races? He spends his time boozing during the few races that he does do.

Neither of the Schlecks was in good form this year. They were not glass cranking around France because they were scared of Contador. They did not have the form to do anything else.

Well I'm not privvy to the intimate details of AS's extracurricular activities but considering what little he does in the events that apparently don't interest him I figure he would have no qualms about hitting a bar or two in the middle of a stage race.

 

[lostincosmos]

Uh-oh. Now you have done it. Dozens of aussies will soon pour in to express outrage at the suggestion that Evans' rivals were riding in subpar form or had crashed out or were not invited.

heck, i've been arguing with two of those people in a different thread

take my word for it folks, do NOT point out the obvious. it only leads to pain

 

[Mambo95]

Uh-oh. Now you have done it. Dozens of aussies will soon pour in to express outrage at the suggestion that Evans' rivals were riding in subpar form or had crashed out or were not invited.

If they were subpar or crashed, that's not his fault. A Tour winner is a Tour winner - no caveats. (Even for Pereiro).

 

[El Pistolero]

If they were subpar or crashed, that's not his fault. A Tour winner is a Tour winner - no caveats. (Even for Pereiro).

Yes, caveats. For Pereiro, not for Evans though.
(Besides cycling fans most people wont know who the hell Pereiro is and he never won it on the road)

 

[Mambo95]

Yes, caveats. For Pereiro, not for Evans though.
(Besides cycling fans most people wont know who the hell Pereiro is and he never won it on the road)

I disagree. He'd been top 10 before. If everyone else dismisses him and lets him gain 30 minutes, then that's smart by him and stupid by everyone else. Time can be taken anywhere.

 

[blaxland]

Yes....He should focus on the Giro or Vuelta instead...This was by far the best opportunity for him to win...Unless his TimeTrial improves he wont win...

 

[luckyboy]

Andy doesn't like training? It's the joy of riding a bike.

I can't see a better opportunity for him than the past two years.

 

[karlboss]

If there are only 42.5km of ITT in a tour Andy's TT need not improve, however if we return to the 100km+ days he will really struggle without a better TT.

Having said compared to his last 2 tours this TT was bad. Last year the most he lost to another contender was 2:23 to Menchov, and only 31 to Contador in a longer TT that suited Schleck even less than this one and the year before only 1:44 to Contador in an almost identical TT. To drop 2:30 I would think is not only indicitive of a bad time trialist(by GC standards), but also a bad day.

 

[woodburn]

The bottom line is that he didn't have the form that he had in 2010. Because of that, he couldn't drop any of the GC contenders in the mountains. Instead, he had to make a last-ditch effort in hopes of getting time on Cadel.

Is it possible that he had a similar form to last year? Look at the difference. Contador had the Giro and was slower. Basso and Cadel didn't ride the Giro and were much close to Shleck the previous year. Frank didn't crash out. The only guy that showed marked improvement with a similar schedule to Andy was Sanchez and Voeckler.

 

[Damiano Machiavelli]

Is it possible that he had a similar form to last year? Look at the difference. Contador had the Giro and was slower. Basso and Cadel didn't ride the Giro and were much close to Shleck the previous year. Frank didn't crash out. The only guy that showed marked improvement with a similar schedule to Andy was Sanchez and Voeckler.

They could not drop Voeckler. Cunego was right up there. As much as I like Cunego, he is not an elite climber, not day after day for three weeks The fact that those riders were in the final group on climbs tells us all we need to know about the level of climbing. It just was not that good.

 

[movingtarget]

They could not drop Voeckler. Cunego was right up there. As much as I like Cunego, he is not an elite climber, not day after day for three weeks The fact that those riders were in the final group on climbs tells us all we need to know about the level of climbing. It just was not that good.

Voeckler is a fighter and if he has a reason like wearing the yellow jersey he can tough it out. Cunego had good form in the Tour De Suisse which he carried into the TDF apart from his usual miserable TT ability. Andy did not do well at the Tour De Suisse but some people said, "he will be ready for the Tour, he always is." I think Cunego and Voeckler were riding at their best but if Schleck is a bit off that's his fault.

Why is is that Contador and Evans can win races throughout the season while still aiming for a TDF win while Schleck bases his whole season around one race and still cannot be at his best ?

Sometimes talent is not enough. You also need to be strong psychologically, tactically and be willing suffer regularly. Apart from the Galibier stage I did not see much evidence of this from Andy. But it's also the tactics of his team that I question. They need someone like Riis giving them advice and they don't seem to have that at the moment. Personally I would be happy to see Andy win but he does not seem to be getting closer to a win. I think Robert Millar was correct when he said that Andy was trying not lose while Evans was trying to win. Evans seemed to have more confidence in himself and his team.

 

[greenedge]

Sanchez was inconsistent though and could not use his teammates at all. Evans would have had great form for last year's TDF as well last year then something i like to call a "crash" occurred. He had a 1:40 buffer on Contador as well. The crashes happen all the time ( last year to Armstrong/ Cadel/ Sanchez ) and it was a pity Menchov and Sastre were not invited but i don't know how well they would have gone ( GC wise ) anyways. Sastre is not the force he used to be in the mountains and is not great ITTing. Menchov benefits from the same race situations as Cadel, where he can ride his own tempo but Cadel did attack and is punchier on short climbs. Menchov is also like the same age as Cadel. The Vuelta will suit them.