Schleck To Go Early

[boardhanger]

A.S needs to attack early on Thursday if he wishes to gain time. There is no point on waiting till last climb to gain anything, It needs to be all or nothing once the flag is lowered. Riis knows this and should be bringing the CERA right up to room temperture just about now.............

 

[scribe]

If he goes early he fries, no gain, no energy to defend podium spot in the ITT. Oh hell, it's over anyhow

 

[boardhanger]

If he goes early he fries, no gain, no energy to defend podium spot in the ITT. Oh hell, it's over anyhow

Nah this stage has 'epic' written all over it. We might'n see another like it for 10years friend.....!!

 

[Kender]

Nah this stage has 'epic' written all over it. We might'n see another like it for 10years friend.....!!

or until next year when AS will be even stronger than this year

 

[Hillavoider]

if he attacks early he will have 5 astana riders on his wheel

 

[scribe]

if he attacks early he will have 5 astana riders on his wheel

Geezus. They gonna destroy his wheel this time?!

 

[boardhanger]

or until next year when AS will be even stronger than this year

I agree A.S has moved up. A.C has either moved down or plauteaued at best.

 

[Hillavoider]

A.S needs to attack early on Thursday if he wishes to gain time. There is no point on waiting till last climb to gain anything, It needs to be all or nothing once the flag is lowered. Riis knows this and should be bringing the CERA right up to room temperture just about now.............

how early?

 

[boardhanger]

how early?

B4 Alberto gets outa bed!!!

 

[Road Hazard]

From what I've seen, I'm not entirely convinced that Contador could stay with Schleck if he launched a serious attack from say low/mid-way up the hill.

 

[Hillavoider]

B4 Alberto gets outa bed!!!

lol they could be in bed together

i cannot work out how he can go early without being isolated, he really needed frank at this point.

 

[Moose McKnuckles]

how early?

There will have to be a major sort-out on the Soulor. If all the contenders have teammates at the bottom of the Tourmalet, then Schleck has left it too late.

AS can't just win. He has to dominate or Contador will destroy him in the TT.

 

[boardhanger]

From what I've seen, I'm not entirely convinced that Contador could stay with Schleck if he launched a serious attack from say low/mid-way up the hill.

I agree. He had him on Monday no problem. Thats why I suspect if Saxo ride hard and I mean hard i.e finished after 15KM of pulling then the tour is up for grabs.

 

[Anonymous]

There will have to be a major sort-out on the Soulor. If all the contenders have teammates at the bottom of the Tourmalet, then Schleck has left it too late.

AS can't just win. He has to dominate or Contador will destroy him in the TT.

Yea, if Schlecklet isn't ahead by the top of the Soulor, he needs to have put AC on the ropes and dropped all of his team on the climb so that when they hit the bottom of the Tourmalet, he can gap early. I feel fairly certain that Vino will be hard to get rid of by the bottom of the Tourmalet though. If he can make AC blow, A LOT of time can be lost on that final climb. Judging by the performance of the two teams, AS needs to seriously worry about being isolated and AC having not just Vino, but maybe one or two more.

I'd say going early will be very difficult for AS. I think like you have pointed out, the more likely attempt would be to completely blow the race apart on the Soulor and then see what happens. Then again, my skills at predicting anything are pretty poor, so take what I have said, and know that it will be completely different than that...

 

[Anonymous]

I agree. He had him on Monday no problem. Thats why I suspect if Saxo ride hard and I mean hard i.e finished after 15KM of pulling then the tour is up for grabs.

He definitely looked stronger...but not THAT much stronger, at least to me.

 

[boardhanger]

............

.........well what would you do considering the rest of the route????

 

[S2Sturges]

From what I've seen, I'm not entirely convinced that Contador could stay with Schleck if he launched a serious attack from say low/mid-way up the hill.

I rode the Tourmalet a couple of years ago cycle touring and it is a real pig,amazingly hard, especially from the side they're going up...AS could go with 3-4 k to go and floor it, I think he could put AC into the red.. tough to say how the teams are going to managed, that will be the big issue, who is the smarter team tactician.. normally, I'd say Riis, but despite the differences in the two teams, they are fairly evenly matched, how Jens will ride after his shunt is unknown, and he is the big motor..
Regardless of the outcome, I think it will be a really amazing stage from start to finish, the stages afterwards will be anticlimactic...

 

[Benedict XVI]

AS should forget about AC and think how to save his podium place in Paris. Otherwise, Menchov and Sanchez will smack his pink whiny *** in TT, lol

 

[Blakeslee]

If Schleck waits for the Tourmalet to attack it will be too late. Even if he rides well on the Tourmalet and manages to drop Contador, it is unlikely he would gain enough time to have a realistic chance of holding onto the lead after the time trial. Saxo needs to try to blow the race up and draw out the GC contenders early, the usual tactic of using the team to drive the pace on the early climbs and waiting for the finishing line to attack just won't gain enough time.

 

[Hillavoider]

i don't think schlep and his team are capable of that. what i think the answer could be is, when AS attacks and gets about 5 meters off the front, Jens goes down at the front of the bunch, just takes one for the team, then fabiass neutralizes the race leaving AS off the front to gain as much time as possible.

 

[Teddler]

schleck won't drop contador anywhere on this tour, I think we'll see schleck attack 2, 3 or 4 times, really big digs, Contador will go with him and then go himself and finish 30secs to 1 min up.

Contador will win the tour by 2-3 mins. Schleck needs to be concerned about finishing on the podium at all.

 

[dsut4392]

I agree. He had him on Monday no problem. Thats why I suspect if Saxo ride hard and I mean hard i.e finished after 15KM of pulling then the tour is up for grabs.

No way. People are reading way too much into the fact that AS got a 20m gap, once, when AC was boxed in and napping at the back of the group. When AC started his counter attack (just as AS had his mechanical) he looked like he had a rocket up his backside and was closing way faster than Schleck had been moving. We'll never know if Schleck could have dropped him, or what may have come of the counter-attack.

Saxo don't have the firepower to ride Astana off their wheels, as evidenced by the fact that AS was solo when AC still had 2 teammates in the group. If Saxo ride hard, they will destroy Liqui, the Shack, and themselves, but won't be hurting AC.

AS can't go early, he hast to leave it late then go all in to break AC.

 

[Sophistic]

Schleck can't and shouldn't drop Contador at the Soulor but he should push the pace hard enough to make everyone already hurt, the Soulor is steep enough over the last 8k so that draft will not be a signficant factor, no teammates needed and there are other riders who should have a smiliar strategy.
The longer the real race is the bigger the time difference could be at the end obviously but a longer race also favors Schlecks strengths, i don't see him dropping Contador in a short fight.

 

[Rob_Roy]

Remembering the madeleine cimb I think Andy must surprise Contador as Contador wont have any troubles at all followin wheels.Andy may do a few early attacks just to see how Contador answers,and if it isnt the answer he hopes for he will decide to work together with Contador to take 2nd place overall.

In the Giro 2008 Contador wasnt at top shape,just as it appears now,but he still managed to hold the wheels uphill.

 

[danyela]

Saxo need to make sure there is a good selection on the Soulor - maybe about 10 or so I'm thinking and then smash it on Tourmalet.

I reckon the ideal would be get on of the domestiques in the early break, then drop back to meet Schleck and a few others before the Tourmalet, pace him up the early slopes and then when Andy attacks, try and make Contadors job hard to chase.

I think the Soulor is too early for Schleck to do an all out attack, perhaps he should team up with a Rabobanker?