Schleck To Go Early

[indurain666]

A lot of guys are daydreaming about Andy's TT abilities. He lost 30 seconds to Contador over 10 k at the prologue.

Contador has been a world class time trialer since his junior days. He was Spanish Under 23 champ when he was only 19, top 20 in the U23 world champs at 20 years just befure turning pro. Nowadays, he is one of the top guys in the world against the clock.

You could say he is a natural tter who learned how to climb.

Anyone thinking that Andy's time at the TT is going to be within a few seconds of Alberto's time is delusional.

 

[boardhanger]

.......well the last TT he took serious he won. That's right he's Luxembourg TT champ. Fact.

 

[Cerberus]

A lot of guys are daydreaming about Andy's TT abilities. He lost 30 seconds to Contador over 10 k at the prologue.

Contador has been a world class time trialer since his junior days. He was Spanish Under 23 champ when he was only 19, top 20 in the U23 world champs at 20 years just befure turning pro. Nowadays, he is one of the top guys in the world against the clock.

You could say he is a natural tter who learned how to climb.

Anyone thinking that Andy's time at the TT is going to be within a few seconds of Alberto's time is delusional.

You could, but you'd be wrong, Contador has always been a strong climber, he's never been a TT specialist. I doubt he was nicknamed Pantani (at age 15) for his TTs and his first victories (as an amateur) was climbing qualifications. It's possible he has always been an all-rounder, but he has never been a pure TT specialist.

That being said, whenever he developed those skills, Contador is a strong TTlist and clearly Andy's record in that department is a lot more spotty. I'd be shocked to see Andy lose less than a minute and two is probably more realistic.

 

[Train in Spain]

Tourmalet = the Alberto and Andy Loveboat. As they cross the line they'll be holding hands and talking about their next holiday together. It's the third summer of love out there . . .

 

[indurain666]

.......well the last TT he took serious he won. That's right he's Luxembourg TT champ. Fact.

He won against who???

I am not sure how serious he was at the TDF's 8.9km..but he was beaten by 121 guys...some of them were not even going going full on (i.e. sprinters, domestiques)

If you are trying to say he took the Luxembourg race seriously and not the TDF prologue...give us a break dude.

 

[Publicus]

Tend to agree with this, altho' top 10 feels more like it to me. I think the last time AS needed a big TT (Giro 08?) he went top 10, right? I also don't look for Cancellara to win TT, because if by chance Schleck gets back into yellow tomorrow and starts last, it doesn't help his chances to have Cancellara go out fast-- then all the top GC guys have his splits for comparison/motivation.

Good point. It was the 2007 Giro and he only lost 1'28" to Salvodelli (sp). It was a more lumpy route than this year's TdF, but he was much more competitive.

 

[alberto.legstrong]

He won against who???

I am not sure how serious he was at the TDF's 8.9km..but he was beaten by 121 guys...some of them were not even going going full on (i.e. sprinters, domestiques)

If you are trying to say he took the Luxembourg race seriously and not the TDF prologue...give us a break dude.

I've always been curious when the say AS is the Lux TT champ. Champ against who and on what route. You guys breathe this stuff...where do we find that kind of info? Last year's TT in Annecy looked to be about his best effort, though, again, I don't watch streaming video for hours at a time, it's just too grainy.

OT: bag on VS all you want, it's same day and on my tv. so really they are 90% there and we are just complaining about the last 10%.

 

[MacRoadie]

.......well the last TT he took serious he won. That's right he's Luxembourg TT champ. Fact.

I think you probably need to keep in mind that the entire population of Luxembourg is 500,000, or 1/16th the population of the CITY of New York...

 

[ridley]

One thing I have not read in this thread is the fact that there is a LOT of prestige associated to clain a win on top of the Tourmalet.

If Saxo cooks the rest of the peloton, Andy will have to do all the work by himself on the climb. As for most of the race, Astana can sit back and does not HAVE to lead out the peloton at all, granted if there is no serious contenders in an early break. But true to a few of the other posts, AS need to bring out the battle ax to defend his current podium position, or is he willing to sacrifice another second place in the TdF?

My $0.02

 

[Dutchsmurf]

I've always been curious when the say AS is the Lux TT champ. Champ against who and on what route. You guys breathe this stuff...where do we find that kind of info?

He beat his brother and the always dangerous Christian Poos.
Results.

 

[Publicus]

One thing I have not read in this thread is the fact that there is a LOT of prestige associated to clain a win on top of the Tourmalet.

If Saxo cooks the rest of the peloton, Andy will have to do all the work by himself on the climb. As for most of the race, Astana can sit back and does not HAVE to lead out the peloton at all, granted if there is no serious contenders in an early break. But true to a few of the other posts, AS need to bring out the battle ax to defend his current podium position, or is he willing to sacrifice another second place in the TdF?

My $0.02

He's talking like he's laying it all on the line on the Tourmalet. I don't know if that is true or not, but that's what he is saying. AC, conversely, is saying that he will race smart, but if there is a chance to bury AS (paraphrase of course), then he will take it. He's operating with the knowledge that there is a tomorrow. AS apparently isn't. So we could see a spectacular stage tomorrow. I'm calling in sick (*cough, cough**).

 

[roundabout]

He's talking like he's laying it all on the line on the Tourmalet. I don't know if that is true or not, but that's what he is saying. AC, conversely, is saying that he will race smart, but if there is a chance to bury AS (paraphrase of course), then he will take it. He's operating with the knowledge that there is a tomorrow. AS apparently isn't. So we could see a spectacular stage tomorrow. I'm calling in sick (*cough, cough**).

So Contador is waiting for Schleck to drop his chain again.

But seriously it will be a damp squib like Ventoux last year.

 

[Publicus]

So Contador is waiting for Schleck to drop his chain again.

But seriously it will be a damp squib like Ventoux last year.

Well I assume Andy will be nervous enough, so he very well may bollix up another shift during an attack. Though, there is no unwritten rule that says AC is supposed to wait in that instance is there? Somebody really should write down this unwritten rules...

In all seriousness, AC did mention Ventoux--that it might be a lot like that. Personally I think it might be more like Stage 16 at the 2007 Tour, with AS playing the role of AC.

EDIT: I was correct that he mentioned Ventoux, but it was in a different (and in my mind better) context.

“Andy and I are almost equal on the climbs, so there’s no need to panic,” Contador said. “What’s sure is that the stage is going to be spectacular. It won’t be like last year on Mont Ventoux when I had a much stronger grip on the yellow jersey. This stage will be explosive.”

 

[Ryaguas]

Well this battle will be finished in Le Tourmalet...

Well seems that a lot of ppl here are quite optimistics about Andy tomorrow no...? are you talking about Andy dropping El Pistolero in his favorite climb ever??? well maybe you are nuts...

lets see Le Tourmalet profile:

We saw the "all in" attacks from Andy in La Madeleine but he cannot drop Contador... We saw an "All in" attack from Contador in Mende and Andy was dropped big time... well you can see that that climb was steep and short and for Andy was really difficult to find his rythm and Le Tourmalet is pretty long and so Andy can find his rythm and he is also angry and will go "All in" but with a tougher attack... I don't know but what is going to happen in Le Tourmalet will be something like:

The selected group arrives au Tourmalet... If Vino, Dani and Tiralongo are still with AC Andy is going to attack to drop them and select more the group that group will be AC, Andy, Samu, Menchov, VdB and maybe other 2 or 3 riders... they will start to see each other and Andy will start to attack so prolly the last group will be AC, Andy, Samu and Menchov...

So here they will start to gamble will be attacks a lot I'm pretty sure but after 4km or 3km after one attack from Andy El Pistolero will counter-attack with a really BIG GAMBLE, he will attack like he did in Verbier and maybe he will gap 40 secs to 1.30min to the others... Le Tourmalet is for him...

There is not other end to this stage... IMHO...

 

[ilillillli]

OK, Schleck's good, but he still rides for Bjarne Riis. I'll bet you right now, they're in the team bus going over the ride-tempo-until-3k-remaining strategy. The first move Andy needs to make tomorrow is to disregard the shoddy advice he's getting from his DS.

The only way Sastre won in '08 was by ignoring the brilliant "no attacks ever" strategy laid out by Mr. Riises Pieces. Andy will have to do the same.

 

[Cerberus]

OK, Schleck's good, but he still rides for Bjarne Riis. I'll bet you right now, they're in the team bus going over the ride-tempo-until-3k-remaining strategy. The first move Andy needs to make tomorrow is to disregard the shoddy advice he's getting from his DS.

The only way Sastre won in '08 was by ignoring the brilliant "no attacks ever" strategy laid out by Mr. Riises Pieces. Andy will have to do the same.

Yeah, I think someone mentioned that on another thread, I asked for evidence that the attack was in defiance of team orders and I got nothing, do you have any?

 

[woodburn]

OK, Schleck's good, but he still rides for Bjarne Riis. I'll bet you right now, they're in the team bus going over the ride-tempo-until-3k-remaining strategy. The first move Andy needs to make tomorrow is to disregard the shoddy advice he's getting from his DS.

The only way Sastre won in '08 was by ignoring the brilliant "no attacks ever" strategy laid out by Mr. Riises Pieces. Andy will have to do the same.

Plus he doesn't have himself and his brother to break the attacks of the peleton like Sastre did. AS needs to go before the Tourmalet to eliminate all the domestics and make it a head-to-head battle on the final climb.

Otherwise, he cannot get more than a minute under the best circumstances unless Contador completely blows. That has happened one time in the last three years.

 

[Dedelou]

Nah this stage has 'epic' written all over it. We might'n see another like it for 10years friend.....!!

I worry about "Epic" when we expect it. Then grandest
"Epics" are best not predicted. But boy do I pray for a Titan's battle. enough of track's stands and mechanicals .. Give us some old fashion climbing

 

[Dedelou]

movingtarget...I agree and think that is how it plays out and too, Schlek has already lost. There is no way he is dropping Contador (at least not enough to make a difference) and I think Contador will get 30sec to one min on him on the Tourmalet, or just mark him. After AS saying Menchov is no threat which I think shows lack of respect for someone who has actually won grand tours, I hope Menchov either hangs with him or doesn't lose much and crushes him in the time trial to take second place.

woaw.. you want that kid to hurt bad. Come on be nice. Why don't they "just get along" and come together holding hands a la "lemon and badger" in l'alpes d'huez
and with the press we have now we could call it "epic"

 

[Dedelou]

You were sounding all reasonable up until that second paragraph and then your promptly fell off a cliff.

That list would be too long to print here. ( Yellow jerseys attacking was a thing quite courant in the old days )
But the last time was probably Sastre i think. The last time the Tourmalet was used for a MTF was over 60 years ago, I believe

 

[Dedelou]

.......well the last TT he took serious he won. That's right he's Luxembourg TT champ. Fact.

yes Andy was 4 riders ahead of the last one.

 

[ilillillli]

Yeah, I think someone mentioned that on another thread, I asked for evidence that the attack was in defiance of team orders and I got nothing, do you have any?

so i'll confess i just sort of understood this to be true, but can't find anything that directly states it. if i'm perpetuating an incorrect rumor, that's not my intention.

i think there IS a lot of empirical evidence that suggests riis is a tempo-loving, attack-hating, uber-conservative DS, though. i think ax-3 "track stand" was a pretty striking example of his favored style.

i'll continue to look for some sastre info, but right now i'm just glad the french have been good protagonists in this edition. i hate the tempo-fest-except-for-one-day tours that riis seems to love.

 

[Publicus]

Given what he's said in press conference today, I think it is pretty clear that Andy is going to try and take a flyer on the penultimate climb.

 

[ilillillli]

Given what he's said in press conference today, I think it is pretty clear that Andy is going to try and take a flyer on the penultimate climb.

really? i read it a different way:

money quote: "'There's only one way (to win) and that's on the climb of the Tourmalet. If you go before you won't succeed,' he said."

 

[hrotha]

really? i read it a different way:

money quote: "'There's only one way (to win) and that's on the climb of the Tourmalet. If you go before you won't succeed,' he said."

That was Riis. God I hate Riis. How can he be so conservative? Gah.

I hope they're just playing games and hiding their actual intentions.