Schleck To Go Early

[vcampbell]

Saxo need to make sure there is a good selection on the Soulor - maybe about 10 or so I'm thinking and then smash it on Tourmalet.

I reckon the ideal would be get on of the domestiques in the early break, then drop back to meet Schleck and a few others before the Tourmalet, pace him up the early slopes and then when Andy attacks, try and make Contadors job hard to chase.

I think the Soulor is too early for Schleck to do an all out attack, perhaps he should team up with a Rabobanker?

If this happens, when the Saxo riders drop back, then the Astana team will go to the front, will go with a brutal speed, and in two minutes there won't be no one with Schleck. This works only, when Schleck makes a move before they catch his teammates, like in Madeleine.

 

[hscoach2]

No way. People are reading way too much into the fact that AS got a 20m gap, once, when AC was boxed in and napping at the back of the group. When AC started his counter attack (just as AS had his mechanical) he looked like he had a rocket up his backside and was closing way faster than Schleck had been moving. We'll never know if Schleck could have dropped him, or what may have come of the counter-attack.

I agree wrt the initial attack not being enough to make that assumption, but what about Schleck's chase? He lost about 30 seconds with the mechanical, but had it down to about 12-13 at the summit. The rest he lost becuase there were three against one on the descent and flattish run-in.

I think he MIGHT be able to get some time on Contador. I wonder who goes in early breaks; whether teammates or not, they may turn out to be allies on the road for either AC or AS.

 

[hrotha]

Riis doesn't know what "going early" means. He thinks his riders can just destroy everyone in the last climb like he did, but he forgets the, huh, "circumstances" are different now.

 

[hrotha]

Today it was all about taking care of myself and staying with the leader's jersey. If the front group had been closer I would have tried to reach them but the gap was too big.

Yeah right. Nevermind that many riders tried and made it.

 

[Eyeballs Out]

There's way too much valley between the Soulor and the Tourmalet. He'd get chased down easily and countered by Contador, Vino, Menchov, Sanchez et al. Attacking on the Soulor would be just plain dumb

Tourmalet is plenty long and hard enough to get a good gap if you have the legs - even if you wait till the last 5km. I actually think the more patient he is the better he'll do. He needs Contador to be isolated and the best way for that to happen is to let Menchov and Sanchez attack each other first preferably with Vino getting involved. Play possum perhaps - maybe a little poker by risking his podium position. If Menchov goes up the road eventually Contador will panic and have to chase

I don't think Schleck needs to gain as much time as most people think

 

[Cerberus]

Yeah right. Nevermind that many riders tried and made it.

He was talking about teh situation on Aubisqu not on the first climbs. Attacking from the start of the stage while marked by the entire Astana team with Rabobank and Euskatel likely lending support if needed would have been blatantly idiotic.

 

[El Pistolero]

I agree wrt the initial attack not being enough to make that assumption, but what about Schleck's chase? He lost about 30 seconds with the mechanical, but had it down to about 12-13 at the summit. The rest he lost becuase there were three against one on the descent and flattish run-in.

I think he MIGHT be able to get some time on Contador. I wonder who goes in early breaks; whether teammates or not, they may turn out to be allies on the road for either AC or AS.

Contador didn't go full out on the climb because he needed Samuel Sanchez for the descend. You could see him look back all the time, no way was he going full out like Andy Schleck did.

On the other hand, we have seen the full power of Andy Schleck when he tried to come back. I was not impressed. That attack he made before the chain fell of was clearly doomed to fail.

 

[hrotha]

He was talking about teh situation on Aubisqu not on the first climbs. Attacking from the start of the stage while marked by the entire Astana team with Rabobank and Euskatel likely lending support if needed would have been blatantly idiotic.

If the race hadn't slowed down there would be no Rabobank or Euskaltel riders chasing (Samu had been dropped, remember), other than the leaders. It would have been just Vino. If it became a leader showdown, I don't think Andy would necessarily have lost, considering the kind of shenanigans that happens in chasing groups.

Sure it was a risk, but Andy needs serious time and he can't do it by the book.

 

[boardhanger]

I think alot of us are forgetting that it's personnal now......

 

[indurain666]

Some recent "epic" IMO ...maybe I should say...good rides:

94 Hautacam: Indurain destroying the field on the Lourdes-Hautacam climb only LeBlanc could follow.

95 La Plagne: Indurain again crushing the field on a climb showing he's got more than TT legs

96 Hautacam: same climb with Riss

97 Arcalis: Ulrich droppin Pantani and Virenque and claiming YJ

98 Telegraph-Galibier: Pantani..EPIC...enough said..if you saw that stage you know what I am talking about

99 Sestriere: Lance answering some questions about his actual climbing form. Zulle was within 30 seconds of catching him but about 6 mins behind on the overall thanks to USPS lack of "fair play"

06 Saisies: Landis attack...I know I know..but it was an epic ride

 

[indurain666]

Contador didn't go full out on the climb because he needed Samuel Sanchez for the descend. You could see him look back all the time, no way was he going full out like Andy Schleck did.

On the other hand, we have seen the full power of Andy Schleck when he tried to come back. I was not impressed. That attack he made before the chain fell of was clearly doomed to fail.

We also saw Andy's full strength at the Madeleine. It is good enough to drop Sanchez or Menchov but Alberto had no problems whatsoever.

 

[Anonymous]

Yes but...

I think alot of us are forgetting that it's personnal now......

Its not "Frankenandy" like it has always been in the past, its just "Andy". Have we ever seen "Justandy" on a stage like this?

 

[unsheath]

I agree wrt the initial attack not being enough to make that assumption, but what about Schleck's chase? He lost about 30 seconds with the mechanical, but had it down to about 12-13 at the summit. The rest he lost becuase there were three against one on the descent and flattish run-in.

I think he MIGHT be able to get some time on Contador. I wonder who goes in early breaks; whether teammates or not, they may turn out to be allies on the road for either AC or AS.

Schleck went à bloc. The others didn't.

 

[Publicus]

Yeah right. Nevermind that many riders tried and made it.

Looking at his, AC's and others faces, they were exhausted yesterday. I think the real factor tomorrow will be who has recovered the best during the rest day. One of the favorites is simply going to implode. Sanchez is a definite possibility, but so is AC and AS. The real beneficiary from all of this will likely be the Silent Assassin.

 

[Carstenbf]

Contador will win the tour by 2-3 mins. Schleck needs to be concerned about finishing on the podium at all.

Perhaps had the TT been in the first week. This Tour has been ridden so hard that coming into the last week, it's not as much about who's a mountain expert or a TT machine, but rather who's dealing best with exhaustion/fatigue.

I predict a top 5 result for Schleck in the final TT, and I expect his time loss to be a matter of seconds rather than minutes. Same reason I don't expect anything from Cancellara. He's been looking like a corpse for the last week or so.

 

[movingtarget]

Schleck won't risk his second place by attacking early. He will attack on the Tourmalet. His lack of aggression has cost him. He has been more concerned with Contador than attacking further from the finish and taking risks. With the difficulty of the stage he won't want to be isolated before the Tourmalet. I think he has already lost the race. Contador only has to mark him now and if Schleck lets Menchov or Sanchez go up the road again he will also lose second place.

 

[Publicus]

Perhaps had the TT been in the first week. This Tour has been ridden so hard that coming into the last week, it's not as much about who's a mountain expert or a TT machine, but rather who's dealing best with exhaustion/fatigue.

I predict a top 5 result for Schleck in the final TT, and I expect his time loss to be a matter of seconds rather than minutes. Same reason I don't expect anything from Cancellara. He's been looking like a corpse for the last week or so.

You were sounding all reasonable up until that second paragraph and then your promptly fell off a cliff.

EDIT: Unrelated to the above poster, but the Tourmalet is an 18 kilometer climb right? When was the last time a competitor for the overall attack at the base (let alone on the penultimate climb) and soloed to victory?

 

[roundabout]

2008, Sastre.

 

[bill1109]

movingtarget...I agree and think that is how it plays out and too, Schlek has already lost. There is no way he is dropping Contador (at least not enough to make a difference) and I think Contador will get 30sec to one min on him on the Tourmalet, or just mark him. After AS saying Menchov is no threat which I think shows lack of respect for someone who has actually won grand tours, I hope Menchov either hangs with him or doesn't lose much and crushes him in the time trial to take second place.

 

[boardhanger]

Schleck won't risk his second place by attacking early. He will attack on the Tourmalet. His lack of aggression has cost him. He has been more concerned with Contador than attacking further from the finish and taking risks. With the difficulty of the stage he won't want to be isolated before the Tourmalet. I think he has already lost the race. Contador only has to mark him now and if Schleck lets Menchov or Sanchez go up the road again he will also lose second place.

Big talk given that the jersey is held by 8 seconds? Your theory doesn't add up.

 

[The Hitch]

Perhaps had the TT been in the first week. This Tour has been ridden so hard that coming into the last week, it's not as much about who's a mountain expert or a TT machine, but rather who's dealing best with exhaustion/fatigue.

I predict a top 5 result for Schleck in the final TT, and I expect his time loss to be a matter of seconds rather than minutes. Same reason I don't expect anything from Cancellara. He's been looking like a corpse for the last week or so.

what your saying is unprescedented. Even in difficult tdfs you dont get someone like schleck coming top 5 and losing a few seconds. + people like cancellara have been going easy in the mountains. Sure its not easy to get over the tourmalet twice in 3 days but i think cancellara, who goes over them in the autobus will recover quicker than someone like schleck going all out.
+ For him to lose seconds he would have to be realtively fresh with contador very tired. We have not seen anything which suggests this to be the case. They might be both fresh or more likely both tired. Either way contador is a much better tter.

I think Andrew will lose minutes.

 

[2wheels]

Perhaps had the TT been in the first week. This Tour has been ridden so hard that coming into the last week, it's not as much about who's a mountain expert or a TT machine, but rather who's dealing best with exhaustion/fatigue.

I predict a top 5 result for Schleck in the final TT, and I expect his time loss to be a matter of seconds rather than minutes. Same reason I don't expect anything from Cancellara. He's been looking like a corpse for the last week or so.

Tend to agree with this, altho' top 10 feels more like it to me. I think the last time AS needed a big TT (Giro 08?) he went top 10, right? I also don't look for Cancellara to win TT, because if by chance Schleck gets back into yellow tomorrow and starts last, it doesn't help his chances to have Cancellara go out fast-- then all the top GC guys have his splits for comparison/motivation.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

He is gonna need to attack and attack. AC will follow easy enough early on in the climb. He needs to break the elastic, and if he does crack AC, he can win big time -- even if say 5-7km from the end.

 

[scribe]

Tend to agree with this, altho' top 10 feels more like it to me. I think the last time AS needed a big TT (Giro 08?) he went top 10, right? I also don't look for Cancellara to win TT, because if by chance Schleck gets back into yellow tomorrow and starts last, it doesn't help his chances to have Cancellara go out fast-- then all the top GC guys have his splits for comparison/motivation.

A strong Canc TT would actually improve Andy's morale, I think.

 

[avantage]

If not Cancellara, then Martin or Wiggins will set a fast early time.