Obviously Gesink has a way better future ahead of him. Samu has a few years left at best.
But at the 2011 Tour you dont get points for having a better future ahead of you, orherwise Peter Sagan would be up there
All there is is the bike, and the rider and what happens there that day. Not in the future, not in the past, but THAT DAY. There and then.
He lost major time on the cobbles (not here this year) and broke his wrist on the Tourmalet stage, meaning he underperformed significantly on the Tourmalet and at the tt.
The ttt is only 20km so i think hell lose about a minute. Which is a lot better than losing 3 minutes on the cobbles ( i have no idea what happened that made him so crap there).
And its a hell of a lot better than the further minutes he lost on Tourmalet and itt. I think a conservative estimate would be to say that he lost 45 seconds on each thanks to his broken wrist.
SO even if he doesnt come in with top form and loses a minute on the ttt, thats still 4 minutes better off than last year (unless he has more misfortune of course). And hes already targeted tour podium as his only aim for the season. So forget Vuelta Pais Vasco, forget Ardennes.
And why wouldnt he be able to be as good as last year. Hes not like Wiggins, coming 4th out of nowhere. Hes the olympic champion (on a very hard course) and a Vuelta runner up. He came 7th in the Tour a few years back. Its no fluke. Hes one of the best gt riders out there full stop.