theyoungest said:
Plenty of riders in the past have been hot favourites to win races but been beaten. On paper, I agree about Andy Schleck but lots of things can go wrong over three weeks and I think if Schleck makes any mistakes or has one bad day, then there will be three or four other riders waiting to take advantage. In the TDF sometimes, it's easy to get caught out on flat windy stages at the wrong time as we have seen over recent years. Lose a minute or two and you can lose the race especially when some riders can't make up big time in the time trials on other GC riders.
- Aug 18, 2009
- 4,993
- 1
- 0
theyoungest said:
I think it's 'easier' for Andy to gain time on the others if he's 'duelling' with Bert than it is if he's attacking solo. Partly because they pull each other on, partly because they have more teammates between them to inhibit the chase, partly because Bert has more clout: people fear him more.
taiwan said:
I agree. If Schleck is not as aggressive in the mountains as he would be with Contador, it will cost him. Last year it turned into a match race in the mountains. This year, Schleck will have to do it on his own. His brother will not be able to keep up with him and that puts more pressure on Andy Schleck. Attacking in the last two km's won't be enough.
theyoungest said:
Contador had a shocker by his standards. Wiggins beat him by a over a minute, Menchov just under a minute. Contador would normal be in or around these results.
- Mar 13, 2009
- 29,413
- 3,482
- 28,180
I've actually taken a bet he will finish at least 3 minutes behind Gesink. Can't wait till the Tour nowFeyRRR said:
- Jul 18, 2010
- 707
- 0
- 0
ferryman said:
...but maybe if I concentrate and try really, really hard it might.
Their, or should I say, Andy's dominance is what I'm truly hoping against. For the sake of my personal viewing pleasure, his coasting to a Tour win, with daily displays of his smug arrogance, stating how "weak" his opponents were, will simply ruin my month of July.
- Jul 16, 2010
- 17,455
- 5
- 0
hrotha said:
No, Andy would still tear him apart in the climbs. According to you Contador is tactically inept anyway, so you don't need to have the slightest idea of what to do to win GTs according to probably most this forum that believe Contador is tactically inept.
Besides, Frank will be there.
well andy is a favorite but i think there is a couple of ways for the other favorites to handle him so here are my pointers to defeat andy.
1) stay with him find allies in other gt riders if possible. andy is no alberto and although better than the rest as far as climbing (in theory) he will not give a spectacle of a race like contador vs ramussen; or contador on verbier. he does not command the same respect and fear as contador. if you stay with contador and he makes you redline one day he will make you pay on a tt. andy cannot do this. do you hear cadel evans?
2) attack and attack there are climbers like samu that wil be able to stay with andy and surge at the end to maybe take some seconds off or that might be able to torture him like basso by setting a medium high pace for a whole day on a climb. here robert might have a chance as well if he is willing to make the sacrifice and go all out in some stages.
3) be better mentally. remember last year when he tried to get rid of contador and he couldn't. he was a broken man at the end of that day while contador just hoped off his bike like nothing; it was devastating for him. who ever stays close to him better keep his cool even if he appears to get dropped, dig deep to keep up with him and it will get to him.
4) if you have the support make leotard suffer (liquigas, and rabbo). cancellara is a great tt'er but he cannot ride for andy day in and out. i do not think that he has that strong of a support cast. Again his team is good but no astana with alberto, lance and kloden.
1) stay with him find allies in other gt riders if possible. andy is no alberto and although better than the rest as far as climbing (in theory) he will not give a spectacle of a race like contador vs ramussen; or contador on verbier. he does not command the same respect and fear as contador. if you stay with contador and he makes you redline one day he will make you pay on a tt. andy cannot do this. do you hear cadel evans?
2) attack and attack there are climbers like samu that wil be able to stay with andy and surge at the end to maybe take some seconds off or that might be able to torture him like basso by setting a medium high pace for a whole day on a climb. here robert might have a chance as well if he is willing to make the sacrifice and go all out in some stages.
3) be better mentally. remember last year when he tried to get rid of contador and he couldn't. he was a broken man at the end of that day while contador just hoped off his bike like nothing; it was devastating for him. who ever stays close to him better keep his cool even if he appears to get dropped, dig deep to keep up with him and it will get to him.
4) if you have the support make leotard suffer (liquigas, and rabbo). cancellara is a great tt'er but he cannot ride for andy day in and out. i do not think that he has that strong of a support cast. Again his team is good but no astana with alberto, lance and kloden.
- Aug 5, 2010
- 11,027
- 89
- 22,580
robertocarlos said:
very good post. problem is that the tour parcours aren't hard enough. it will be very difficult for a team to use their super domestics to isolate andy( which won't happen cus he will have frank) and then to continually attack him. tho if all top contenders agree on this i can see if happen.
The best way for Andy to lose a Tour wihtout Contador would need a similar situation as 03 with Armstrong. 2 riders close in time, that are completely different characteristics. IN 03 you had Ulrich who was the diesel that sat on Armstrong, forcing Lance to chase the other rider, Vinokourov, a naturally aggressive rider.
The aggressive rider is close enough in the GC forcing the leader to chase, while the Top TT can sit on the favorite and maybe pipe him in the end for a couple of seconds here and there. The aggressive rider doesn't havent to be a Top TT, but at least one of good quality to where on a normal day he may not lose much more then a minute in the TT.
Unfortunately, I am not sure we can produce that duo this year. I think Cadel could come close to playing the role of Ulrich, he seems to be climbing well and looks more like his old TT form, but the closest I see to the aggressive rider, would be Vino, and as much as I love to see it, I just dont think he will contend as long as Schleck is in good form and bad luck free.
I do have a feeling though that if Contador is not there, I think we will have a surprising podium result, whether if its Andy not winning, or an outsider Like a Vino, maybe a Vande Velde type, one who has finished Top 5-10, but nothing impressive to make one think they could do more, or even Tony Martin, a really good TT that can limit losses in the mountains. The way the course is, I think he can lend itself to a surprise.
The aggressive rider is close enough in the GC forcing the leader to chase, while the Top TT can sit on the favorite and maybe pipe him in the end for a couple of seconds here and there. The aggressive rider doesn't havent to be a Top TT, but at least one of good quality to where on a normal day he may not lose much more then a minute in the TT.
Unfortunately, I am not sure we can produce that duo this year. I think Cadel could come close to playing the role of Ulrich, he seems to be climbing well and looks more like his old TT form, but the closest I see to the aggressive rider, would be Vino, and as much as I love to see it, I just dont think he will contend as long as Schleck is in good form and bad luck free.
I do have a feeling though that if Contador is not there, I think we will have a surprising podium result, whether if its Andy not winning, or an outsider Like a Vino, maybe a Vande Velde type, one who has finished Top 5-10, but nothing impressive to make one think they could do more, or even Tony Martin, a really good TT that can limit losses in the mountains. The way the course is, I think he can lend itself to a surprise.
robertocarlos said:
If you watched last year when Andy attacked (especially on the col du tourmalet) Contador was the only one who could stay with Andy riders like Samu were not able to stay with him... Sure it could be different this year, but judging on past performance they cant.
- Jun 22, 2009
- 10,644
- 2
- 0
Parrulo said:
yeah.
The course isn't that bad really.
With the pace of the tour, martin will have no chance.
- Jun 22, 2009
- 10,644
- 2
- 0
Marcus135 said:
honestly with the older guy it is unlikely their progress will be much.
Younger guys like Gesink in theory are more likely to close the gap, But I don't think he will come close to Andy.
- Jul 16, 2010
- 17,455
- 5
- 0
TRENDING THREADS
-
Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread- Started by DNP-Old
- Replies: 36K
-
Teams & Riders Tadej Pogačar discussion thread- Started by Lequack
- Replies: 41K
-
Teams & Riders The Great Big Cycling Transfers, Extensions, and Rumours Thread- Started by RedheadDane
- Replies: 13K
-
Il Lombardia 2025, monument, October 11- Started by Krzysztof_O
- Replies: 792
-
European Championship 2025: Men’s RR, October 5- Started by Berniece
- Replies: 854
-
-
Facebook
Twitter
Instagram