Schleki's won't win TDF

[karlboss]

are the "Andy always waits for Frank" based on more than ventoux 2009?

 

[Christian]

yea i really prefer it when frank works for andy and andy attacks solo. Andy will go all out this way instead of waiting for frank which irritated me when he did so on the mont ventoux

It appears the "Andy waited for Fränk on Ventoux" hypothesis is a common misconception of what really happened on the final slopes of that epic mountain ... Andy explained it in a radio interview last year:

According to him, he was willing to break away from the group, but was aware that he could not drop Contador. He then asked Contador to collaborate with him, and then fight it out for the stage victory. Contador however refused this, pointing to the fact that he had Armstrong in the group. Andy then decided not to go on the attack, as he would only have dragged Contador to the finish line and presented him a prestegious stage win on a silver platter. Keep in mind that these final 6 kms drag on forever and there is an awful lot of wind - if Andy had had to do all the work, Contador would have had no problem to drop him.

In another video on youtube, he said that they were "trying to drop Armstrong", but one does not necessarily exclude the other - after the initial plan (get Contador to collaborate) had failed, they went to plan B (get Fränk on the podium).

 

[El Pistolero]

Without Contador, the race is more open. Which means more unorthodox. Which doesn't suit Andy.

As for Fränk, well, that'll only mean there'll be two very confused Leopards instead of one.

Without Contador, the race is easier.

Do you believe all the talk of working together against one stronger person so he won't win? Doubt we'll see a lot of attacks since most GT contenders these days are pussies.

 

[hrotha]

Without Contador, the race is easier.

Do you believe all the talk of working together against one stronger person so he won't win? Doubt we'll see a lot of attacks since most GT contenders these days are pussies.

No, I believe in a 2006 scenario.

 

[Havetts]

What that someone who can climb pretty ok gets 30 minutes? No way.

 

[El Pistolero]

No, I believe in a 2006 scenario.

So you believe someone will get a lot of time in a large breakaway but still end up losing?

 

[hrotha]

No, I don't believe Pereiro will win, if you want to take everything literally just so that you can argue a bit more. What I meant should be pretty obvious.

 

[El Pistolero]

No, I don't believe Pereiro will win, if you want to take everything literally just so that you can argue a bit more. What I meant should be pretty obvious.

Yeah, but in your 2006 scenario the person getting in the large breakaway still ended up losing

I'm pwetty sure AS is smart enough to know when he has to attack. He was actually one of the only one's last year that did attack.

Besides, with Cancellara in their team there's no way a breakaway can get up to 30 minutes with a half decent climber in it. Unless you think a breakaway with such a time gap will establish it self on a mountain stage where Cancellara would be cancelled. Again, doubt it.

I wasn't talking about Pereiro, he's retired.

 

[hrotha]

Sigh.
My point is that I wasn't talking about a breakaway taking it at all.

 

[El Pistolero]

Well, that was the 2006 scenario. Unless you're talking about the 2006 doping exodus.

But 2006 was way more open than this year will be, so still no.

What you meant isn't obvious by the way, as everybody thinks about the big breakaway group with Pereiro when talking about 2006 scenario.

 

[hrotha]

The 2006 scenario is not only the Montélimar breakaway. It's also the Landis thing, and basically the whole race being unpredictable, with no team managing to control it as the overwhelming favourite and boss of the race had decided to spend a couple of seasons at home. Yes, I would think this is obvious.

 

[El Pistolero]

The 2006 scenario is not only the Montélimar breakaway. It's also the Landis thing, and basically the whole race being unpredictable, with no team managing to control it as the overwhelming favourite and boss of the race had decided to spend a couple of seasons at home. Yes, I would think this is obvious.

Not really. In 2006 a whole bunch of favorites weren't able to start and Armstrong retired(just in time). Valverde crashed out pretty soon as well(probably his only chance to have ever won the Tour), hence the race was very hard to control. US Postal/Discovery used to control important parts of the race, but with their leader gone they were headless.

Now it's just Contador and Menchov(who never attacks anyway). And it's not even sure if Contador won't be there. While the race will be open, it won't be as open as in 2006. Thus less chaotic and I do hope the sport is somewhat cleaner than 5 years ago.

2006 had no overwhelming favorite, 2011 has. That's the difference.

 

[hrotha]

But a cleaner sport doesn't mean less havoc and more easily controlled races. Quite the contrary, actually.

Anyway, that's why I said if something unorthodox happens. Of course if everyone lets Leotard do the race they want, nothing'll happen. I also don't think Andy has earned being considered the "overwhelming" favourite just yet.

 

[El Pistolero]

But a cleaner sport doesn't mean less havoc and more easily controlled races. Quite the contrary, actually.

Anyway, that's why I said if something unorthodox happens. Of course if everyone lets Leotard do the race they want, nothing'll happen. I also don't think Andy has earned being considered the "overwhelming" favourite just yet.

I know, I know, but I'm not really hoping for another Puerto case right before the Tour starts this year

 

[La Pandera]

like one guy said before: "contador sees every problem as a nail, the thing is that he is very good with a hammer"

contador isn't tactic inept. the fact that he didn't let himself fall into the trap bruynnel and lance and set up for him in 2009 says all.

It baffles me all this talk of Contador being tactically inept. This ridiculous belief inspite of his record in stage races. This belief inspite of his wins in the 2008 Giro and 2009 and 2010 Tours, with the extreme emphasis on the 2009 Tour. Obviously many are simply blinded by a strong dislike for the fellow. I guess if a rider doesn't win at the end by 5 minutes or more they're just not cutting the mustard in some eyes.

 

[La Pandera]

very good post. problem is that the tour parcours aren't hard enough. it will be very difficult for a team to use their super domestics to isolate andy( which won't happen cus he will have frank) and then to continually attack him. tho if all top contenders agree on this i can see if happen.

The first time he does something completely stupid and as I see it, disrespectful to his opponents like dropping back to the team car on a climb to fetch bottles for his teammates, ATTACK HIS ARROGANT DERRIERE, if only to show that this display of complete disdain and disrespect for his opponents is not being ignored. If it gets under his craw and creates anger in his belly, well so be it.

 

[hrotha]

It baffles me all this talk of Contador being tactically inept. This ridiculous belief inspite of his record in stage races. This belief inspite of his wins in the 2008 Giro and 2009 and 2010 Tours, with the extreme emphasis on the 2009 Tour. Obviously many are simply blinded by a strong dislike for the fellow. I guess if a rider doesn't win at the end by 5 minutes or more they're just not cutting the mustard in some eyes.

His record? He wins because he's the best, not because his tactics are particularly good - they're just not bad enough to outweigh his physical advantage. What did he do in the 2009 Tour that warrants saying he's good tactically? Attacking in the last kilometers of a climb with a headwind? What about the Le Grand Bornand stage? What about Morzine-Avoriaz and Mende in the 2010 Tour?

 

[palmerq]

Obviously many are simply blinded by a strong dislike for the fellow.

That never happens on the internet :S

I think most of it comes from the time he did his bizzare half attack that dropped his team mate klodi and left him with the 2 schlecks on one of the stages on the tdf 2009.. But I was very impressed with his attack on verbier I think(could have been one of the others), he had lost 20 seconds cause of the wind to one of his team mates who wasn't as strong as him(I forget his name) and it looked like astana were moving that guy into the yellow jersey which would have made it very awkward for contador to assume proper leadership of the team, I thought his attack there was very clever and avoided the trap


Andy is still going to win the tour though, although I'm going to bet money on someone else.. Menchov isn't going to be there either is he? Who's going to beat andy?

 

[hoolaparara]

If you watched last year when Andy attacked (especially on the col du tourmalet) Contador was the only one who could stay with Andy riders like Samu were not able to stay with him... Sure it could be different this year, but judging on past performance they cant.

Of course last year after making the gap he had Contador to work with to keep the gap. I'm very interested in how Schleck will work and in general how he'll react without a favourite ahead of him. He does not have much of a history of doing that given his attitude outside the TDF.

 

[La Pandera]

His record? He wins because he's the best, not because his tactics are particularly good - they're just not bad enough to outweigh his physical advantage. What did he do in the 2009 Tour that warrants saying he's good tactically? Attacking in the last kilometers of a climb with a headwind? What about the Le Grand Bornand stage? What about Morzine-Avoriaz and Mende in the 2010 Tour?

What palmerq said.

Additionally, winning the Giro while racing with a cracked elbow, no reconn of the course, and arguably not the same level of prep as his opponents takes a level of tactical acumen and discipline. He showed both at the Giro. The only fault I can find in his 2010 Tour is his attempts to respond to all the attacks at the end of the Morzine-Avoriaz stage eventually won by Andy Schleck. The Mende stage is an example of his tactical acumen, not an argument against it. If his team's primary goal is winning the Tour and the opportunity arrises to gain time on your chief rival, Andy Schleck, then one makes the most of that opportunity. This is regardless of if you have a teammate up the road. Of course it was likely hoped that once Contador and Purito reeled in Vino, if in fact they did (it wasn't necessarily a certainty at the start of the attack from the group of primaries), that Vino may have enough to take the sprint which of course he did not. Of primary importance was the time gained on Andy Schleck.

 

[The Hitch]

Obviously many are simply blinded by a strong dislike for the fellow.

Actually the "contador is tactically inept" discussion in this case was introduced by his biggest fan.

And 90% of the time that Pisti is arguing with someone about whether Contador is tactically inept or not, he is arguing with me and im also a fan of Contador. So no, its not a case of bias. Bias doesnt explain everything.

I think most of it comes from the time he did his bizzare half attack that dropped his team mate klodi and left him with the 2 schlecks on one of the stages on the tdf 2009..

And this

http://cyclocosm.com/2010/07/if-all-you-have-is-a-hammer/

Andy is still going to win the tour though, although I'm going to bet money on someone else.. Menchov isn't going to be there either is he? Who's going to beat andy?

Samu Sanchez

 

[hrotha]

And this

http://cyclocosm.com/2010/07/if-all-you-have-is-a-hammer/

Exactly. Nailed it.

 

[palmerq]

I don't have great faith in sanchezs chances of beating andy, but if his odds are good I might place a few quid on him.

 

[dlwssonic]

Of course last year after making the gap he had Contador to work with to keep the gap. I'm very interested in how Schleck will work and in general how he'll react without a favourite ahead of him. He does not have much of a history of doing that given his attitude outside the TDF.

did you watch the col du tourmalet. Andy had to do all the work by himself because alberto was sitting on his wheel, he had to do all the work by himself.

 

[La Pandera]

did you watch the col du tourmalet. Andy had to do all the work by himself because alberto was sitting on his wheel, he had to do all the work by himself.

He didn't "have to", but if he wanted to win the Tour and gain enough time prior to the ITT, of which he obviously didn't have much confidence in his own abilities at the time, he had to work to drop Contador. They both were racing with the mutual understanding that if AS couldn't drop Contador on the Tourmalet and gain some time that the ITT was a lost cause for AS. That proved to be incorrect of course.