SHACK ATTACK: Radioshack fail dismally!

[Siriuscat]

are there no windy stages left?? Between alpes and pyrenees I think.

No, the transition stages veer towards the Massif Central rather than the Carmargue and southern coasts.

 

[Ten Percent Grade]

What race are you watching? It's the 4th day not the 14th

I understand that. I'm saying that things have not gone according to plan for th e Shack and now they will be forced into the offensive perhaps sooner than they would have liked. They need to make up time somewhere between now and the mountains and my question to everyone was "where might they try to make that happen?"

 

[perico]

and how many times has a GC candidate lost a race because of bad luck... it happens all the time.

This is funny because

1. Lance has always had luck on his side
2. He has been a complete **** and claimed his luck was skill and nobody else had skill and they all had "a lot to learn"

Really what happened here is lance had a racing incident, that he is lucky hasn't happened to him more times in his career. Mr. Holier than thou 6 hours a day on a bike has a lot to learn

Delgado in 1989
LeMond in 1985
Millar in 1985 Vuelta

 

[vrusimov]

I understand that. I'm saying that things have not gone according to plan for th e Shack and now they will be forced into the offensive perhaps sooner than they would have liked. They need to make up time somewhere between now and the mountains and my question to everyone was "where might they try to make that happen?"

...maybe stage 7 to Station des Rousses on saturday...a real roller-coaster course with two long cat 2 climbs at the end...

...my guess is that they won't make up the time unless something freakish happens...riders will be too fresh to let any GC favorite go up the road...not to say that Shack should'nt try...

...fact of the matter is that unless Armstrong is sitting on form we have'nt seen since 2005 he'll find it more difficult to reach the podium this year...his luck will need to turn once the road tilts up...saturday and sunday will reveal much about all the favorites...the course will start to bite...

 

[Oldman]

Agreed. I think the most telling comment from Lance was that he was on the rivet/exhausted once they hit the fourth section of cobbles. That can't be a good sign of his fitness level (IMO).

He also admitted that his training couldn't prepare him for this level of racing; something others have suggested he could manage with his program. The recovery from those efforts are tough to duplicate in the lab rat world, too. That's his next challenge.

 

[Mellow Velo]

Lance yesterday, Cav today.
Yup, The Tour of California in mid May is excellent Tour prep compared to the Giro.
Just ask Evans™.

 

[flicker]

Originally Posted by Publicus
Agreed. I think the most telling comment from Lance was that he was on the rivet/exhausted once they hit the fourth section of cobbles. That can't be a good sign of his fitness level (IMO).

I cannot believe this. All of a sudden the people in this forum believe Lance?

In the top level of this sport people shadow box. The days of Merckx domination are over.
Lance will use a psycological edge wherever possible. As long as I have watched him he has done this.

 

[Oldman]

Originally Posted by Publicus
Agreed. I think the most telling comment from Lance was that he was on the rivet/exhausted once they hit the fourth section of cobbles. That can't be a good sign of his fitness level (IMO).

I cannot believe this. All of a sudden the people in this forum believe Lance?

In the top level of this sport people shadow box. The days of Merckx domination are over.
Lance will use a psycological edge wherever possible. As long as I have watched him he has done this.

He was "faking" missing pulls in pursuit of the leaders? That's Academy level acting as he really looked like he was struggling. Lance setting up his Hallmark Theatre exit from the sport is more believable and you can seek comfort in the fact that he'll be acting right to the curtain close.

 

[eleven]

Here's a question:

Now that Armstrong's chances have gone from dismal to virtually non-existent, where does everyone expect the Shack to go for broke and be ultra aggressive? I know the real battle will be in the mountains but are there any other possible opportunities?? They have to be planning something because I don't think they'll take it laying down...

I don't think Armstrong's chances are nonexistent- and I'm quite certain he had his team don't believe that. The question is what kind of form he brings to the mountains. in 2000-2005, he could have made up that 2 minute deficit after one day in the mountains.

Personally, I don't think he has much of a chance of dropping all those guys and getting two minutes again. But he'll certainly move up in the mountains and if a couple guys have bad days while his form strengthens he could find himself on the podium....and he can take some decent time from the likes of Andy Schleck etal in the final TT.

His biggest problem trying to move up is that he's not likely to get time from Contador in the mountains or in the TT....Nor is anyone else.

 

[alberto.legstrong]

Lance yesterday, Cav today.
Yup, The Tour of California in mid May is excellent Tour prep compared to the Giro.
Just ask Evans™.

More commonly known as 'Whistling past the Graveyard"

 

[flicker]

He was "faking" missing pulls in pursuit of the leaders? That's Academy level acting as he really looked like he was struggling. Lance setting up his Hallmark Theatre exit from the sport is more believable and you can seek comfort in the fact that he'll be acting right to the curtain close.

I saw him driving when he was in the group ahead of Contador. After he flatted
he did look like he was struggling trying to hold Popos wheel. When the cobble section came I saw him drive on the pave and close to the next group quickly.
I think Lance had plenty left in the tank in the last 5k. Anything he says are smoke and mirrors. Typical socio/psycotic bruyneel/armstrong spin.
It is odd to have classics type races in the tour, where you have guys like leipheimer and the spanish climbers who are not classics racers. Also guys like vandevelde and gesink getting hurt.

 

[alberto.legstrong]

I don't think Armstrong's chances are nonexistent- and I'm quite certain he had his team don't believe that. The question is what kind of form he brings to the mountains. in 2000-2005, he could have made up that 2 minute deficit after one day in the mountains.

Personally, I don't think he has much of a chance of dropping all those guys and getting two minutes again. But he'll certainly move up in the mountains and if a couple guys have bad days while his form strengthens he could find himself on the podium....and he can take some decent time from the likes of Andy Schleck etal in the final TT.

His biggest problem trying to move up is that he's not likely to get time from Contador in the mountains or in the TT....Nor is anyone else.

Move up in the mtns? On who? Cancellara? ok yes, and any other non-climber that's currently placed ahead of him, but which climbers is he going to move ahead of? Take time on Andy in the final TT? OK, that's a definite maybe, but otherswill likely take time on him.

Podium? That's going to be a long shot.

I think you need to re-boot and try the post again.

 

[Barrus]

Lance yesterday, Cav today.
Yup, The Tour of California in mid May is excellent Tour prep compared to the Giro.
Just ask Evans™.

or Petacchi

 

[Maxiton]

For those who want the original lance shouting at contador picture

http://www.daylife.com/photo/0ez0adD9gW5Ua

Thanks. Was wondering where that got off to.

He was foolish enough not to recognize that Contador and Iban Mayo are not one and the same. He really should have caught on last year when his efforts to intimidate Contador only motivated him more.

I know. It's kind of funny to see this massive attempt at imtimidation backfire. Contador just puts his head down and goes faster - dropping Lance in the process. I guess not much is intimidating when you can drop people at will.

I think they're shell-shocked by AC's performance. The expectation was that he would lose at least a minute to Armstrong on this stage, not gain time on him. It appears that inspite of the years that they spent working closely with Contador, they have once again underestimated his resolve. How many times does Contador prove them wrong till they recognize what they are truly up against? Even I had my doubts and hoped for minimal time losses but after this stage I am simply even more impressed with Contador effort and cool under fire. Before the stage he did say in an interview that he was calm and not going to get stressed about stage 3. Tranquilo.

Should definitely be Contador's new nickname.

... as in: "I don't have a great team" ?!

I guess Lance agrees with whoever started this thread

Yep. Would not have wanted to be on that bus after the stage. And the thing is, but for the poor choice of wheels and tires they might have been better able to follow the plan.

If you have a chance, check out Kloden's tweeter feed if you want a good glimpse of the psychological aftermath of yesterday's stage. Radio Shack put a lot of eggs in the AC falters/Armstrong excels basket. Horner made similar comments in his blog. I wonder when we will hear from Bottle.

Here's what Kloden had to say:

"a word about yesterday. I hope now the organization of the TdF is glad that the race was decided yesterday by material damage and falls."

Oh to be a fly on the wall in the bus after that mess!

They were supposed to be up there with Saxo all day putting time into AC and wearing Astana down. How'd that go!?

I don't think Lance is one to bite his tongue or sugarcoat things in private (to put it mildly). he is a jerk, but his team let him down more than some failing of his own. Much as I dislike him, he looked tragic and brave trying to fight back after the flat. (Who am I kidding? Watching him eat *** is just fabulous! Ok, so I am conflicted. Kill me.)

Anyone else think he went ballistic after the stage?

See above..

Ok, in all seriousness, it's an interesting question. And frankly, it's actually a liberating situation for the entire Radio Shack team. They aren't that far out of contention (reminds me of the Giro when everyone pronounced Basso's race over) and they've got enough live dogs on their team to make their presence known and felt over the next two weeks.

Psychologically is where I wonder how they respond. They (along with a number of other GC candidates) seem to put a lot of stock in AC loses significant amounts of time (if not crashing out) today. That didn't happen. It will be interesting to see if they can put this behind them and race the race that is now in front of them (instead of the one they prepared for in their minds).

This comment by Publicus is among the most perceptive I've seen. I think the Bruyneel/Armstrong approach to strategy is actually pretty rigid, on account of having worked well for seven Tours. (They haven't had to change it.) When flexibility is called for, as here, they are out of the game. They've already lost the race in their own minds.

 

[guilder]

They all have races planned out in their minds, not just LA/JB. LA has had his most success by foiling others plans and making them choke on them.

The successes AS and AC have had were pre-planned to the letter.

 

[eleven]

Move up in the mtns? On who? Cancellara? ok yes, and any other non-climber that's currently placed ahead of him, but which climbers is he going to move ahead of? Take time on Andy in the final TT? OK, that's a definite maybe, but otherswill likely take time on him.

Podium? That's going to be a long shot.

I think you need to re-boot and try the post again.

What in the world are you talking about? You start by claiming I was wrong in my post, then you go about agreeing with just about everything I said:

1. He'll move up in the mountains. We agree.
2. He'll take time on AS in the TT. We agree.
3. He COULD find himself on the podium. We agree.

I swear some people disagree for the sole purpose of being disagreeable. Amazing.

 

[Angliru]

They all have races planned out in their minds, not just LA/JB. LA has had his most success by foiling others plans and making them choke on them.

The successes AS and AC have had were pre-planned to the letter.

Like Contador's Giro win? Or his attack on Arcalis to regain his position in the gc ahead of Armstrong? Or maybe his attack on Verbier to cement his superiority over Armstrong? I'm sure the latter two were pre-planned by Contador and were looming like dark storm clouds over Armstrong/Bruyneel's
goal of Lance's triumphant return to Tour glory, metaphorically p--ing on their planned parade.

 

[Cerberus]

Move up in the mtns? On who? Cancellara? ok yes, and any other non-climber that's currently placed ahead of him, but which climbers is he going to move ahead of? Take time on Andy in the final TT? OK, that's a definite maybe, but otherswill likely take time on him.

Podium? That's going to be a long shot.

Honestly I don't see why you'd consider it a such a longshot. Armstrong was expectantly strong in the prologue, and while there's no 1 to 1 correlation between prologue performance and GC performance it has historically been an indicator. Sure he lost time on the cobbles, but not enough to be out of the GC.

I think he has a chance of beating all the guys in front of him save Contador. Andy should be able to beat him to, but his form is still a question mark. Cadel is 2 minutes up which is a fair amount, but he could be tired from the Giro and Armstrong did much better in the prologue indication better form.

Aside from Cadel and Schleck he's within a minute of everybody. Not saying he definitely will podium, but he's got a very respectable chance.

 

[Benotti69]

... They've already lost the race in their own minds.

I got that impression from seeing them all riding at the front today.....like it was pre-planned cos LieStrong was gonna be in yellow after RadioSmack took everyone out on over the cobbles and they had no plan B so stick to plan A without he jersey.....

If that was Astana i imagine they would have been trying to create havoc, attacking in feeding zones etc.....

 

[Maxiton]

I got that impression from seeing them all riding at the front today.....like it was pre-planned cos LieStrong was gonna be in yellow after RadioSmack took everyone out on over the cobbles and they had no plan B so stick to plan A without he jersey.....

If that was Astana i imagine they would have been trying to create havoc, attacking in feeding zones etc.....

Exactly. The plan's not working but it's the only plan we have . . . .

 

[flicker]

At this point Lance losing a minute on Contador could serve Lance well. Good to take the preasure off the Shack. As good as Cadel tired from Giro, Andy lost brother and has been injured for last 7 months, Menchov overated in tour I think the top step is between Lance and Contador/ advantage Contador.

 

[this_is_edie]

got to say that I'm still snickering about the results of the stage. After pre-race PR where Radioshack, LA, Bruyneel and their fans were salivating about the smackdown they would put on the field and Contador. It was Contador who rode brillantly (for a skinny climber), didn't panic when he had a wheel problem and put some time into Armstrong.

ha ha ha

 

[turtlesoup]

At this point Lance losing a minute on Contador could serve Lance well. Good to take the preasure off the Shack. As good as Cadel tired from Giro, Andy lost brother and has been injured for last 7 months, Menchov overated in tour I think the top step is between Lance and Contador/ advantage Contador.

its still at the end of the day is just 1 minute, if 1 minute to AC on stage 3 ended his race he was looking for a way out to begin with.

 

[python]

anyone too optimistic about armstrong's podium chances this early in the game is missing a huge chunk of info - we dont know how he will climb compared to the other gc contenders.

yes we saw an excellent prologue but that's just too little to extrapolate.

we also saw armstrong at his absolute limit on the cobbles (by his own admission) and that wasn't where everyone thought he'll be.

by my reckoning, he will climb (relative to his competition) no better than last year.

 

[therhodeo]

by my reckoning, he will climb (relative to his competition) no better than last year.

Which still had him leaving Wiggo when he wanted to.