SHACK ATTACK: Radioshack fail dismally!

[Benotti69]

I think that no one can tell who is peaked and who will peak in a GT till after the event.

top 3 (AC, AS & LA) are riding well at the moment, Schleck the less so due to his prologue performance but weather may have been a factor also his injuries may have influenced whether he reduced risks and lost time that way. who can say. He rode a great stage over the cobbles for someone carry previous days injuries...Uniballer would have been with Contador but for a puncture so it looks like all are going well and the real test of who is going really well will not come until the big mountains where you can't hide your form..

 

[Publicus]

Obviously it only holds when accounting for other factors such as rider type. Concellara won't climb well even after an unusually strong TT. Andy Schleck will never win a TT no matter what form he's in. I do think comparing a rider to his usual standard gives and indication.

Based on that I'll stick my head out and predict some combination of:
1) Lance climbing relatively well.

2) Wiggins doing relatively badly.

3) Menchov doing relatively badly.

4) Andy perhaps not being quite up to his usual standard. (this one I'm least confident of, perhaps because I hope I'm wrong.

After the first couple of real mountain stages we can get back to this and start arguing about what "relatively well" means and and whether getting for example 2 right and 2 wrong proves I'm right or that I'm wrong .

So if the prologue is a good reference for climbing ability, Contador's prologue means what? I took it to be a good demonstration of his actual power and that he's going to wreck havoc in the mountains (if he's producing that kind of power on a flat course where he is sitting up in the corners, he's going to be a monster when it goes up). Last year both TTs had climbs in the middle, which is what propelled him (IMO) to 2nd and 1st. If they had been flat, he wouldn't have done as well compared to other bigger/stronger riders (pure wattage-wise).

But if I understand your theory correctly (I think that i do), it means he's going to climb at a lesser level compared to last year because of his prologue results. And if that's right, then all bets are off. This is anyone's race.

I just don't get that sense though. Armstrong was getting gapped at the Tour de Suisse and struggled over the first half of the prologue and TT courses that had climbs. Didn't look fluid, or light, or fast. What am I missing? (Honest question)

 

[Cerberus]

betting is based on odds and it also based on the amount bet on a certain, team, candidate, rider, horse etc....

so if no one bet on Contador winning the TdF his odds would get bigger and if everybody was betting on Robbie McEwen winning the odds would reduce as bookies hedge the potential losses...

so betting is not a great guide.

I'm talking about bookmakers sites and they have a fairly strong interest in getting their odds right since they're putting their money where their mouth is. Bookmakers odds are IMO the single best indicator of these kinds of things.

 

[scribe]

I think that no one can tell who is peaked and who will peak in a GT till after the event.

top 3 (AC, AS & LA) are riding well at the moment, Schleck the less so due to his prologue performance but weather may have been a factor also his injuries may have influenced whether he reduced risks and lost time that way. who can say. He rode a great stage over the cobbles for someone carry previous days injuries...Uniballer would have been with Contador but for a puncture so it looks like all are going well and the real test of who is going really well will not come until the big mountains where you can't hide your form..

Indeed. aka: Hiding their form until the queen stage.

 

[Cerberus]

So if the prologue is a good reference for climbing ability, Contador's prologue means what? I took it to be a good demonstration of his actual power and that he's going to wreck havoc in the mountains (if he's producing that kind of power on a flat course where he is sitting up in the corners, he's going to be a monster when it goes up). Last year both TTs had climbs in the middle, which is what propelled him (IMO) to 2nd and 1st. If they had been flat, he wouldn't have done as well compared to other bigger/stronger riders (pure wattage-wise).

But if I understand your theory correctly (I think that i do), it means he's going to climb at a lesser level compared to last year because of his prologue results. And if that's right, then all bets are off. This is anyone's race.

No that's not what I'm saying. I think that Prologue results should be judged according to rider types. Contador is a light climber type. Finishing 6th on a pancake flat prologue is IMO a fairly good result for him. I expect him to dominate as much this year as the last.

I just don't get that sense though. He was getting gapped at the Tour de Suisse and struggled over the first half of the prologue and TT courses that had climbs. Didn't look fluid, or light, or fast. What am I missing? (Honest question)

I can definitely see how you'd think he wasn't strong based on that, and it's perfectly reasonable to draw that conclusion. Personally however I'm hesitant to draw conclusions based on pre-tour races because the main contenders for the Tour might not ehm, let's say "prepare" as well for those races as they do for the Tour.

 

[python]

No he should not because Cancellara is a specialist. A prologue, even a flat one, is an indicator of form and form is an indicator of climbing ability. Andy's disappointingly poor prologue, even by his standard indicates (but does not prove) poor form. Armstrong's unexpectedly strong prologue indicates (but does not prove) good from. if you looked at betting sites you could see the odds on Andy and LA moving in response to the performances, more I think than the gain or loss of a few seconds would justify.

That didn't stop you from speculating that his form would be no better than last year. I think my assumption that he's likely to climb better because he TTs better is more reasonable than you assumption that he's likely to climb no better because of.. well whatever you base that on.


It's not my first choice either, but since I don't own a time machine I can't check what happens on any of the actual mountain stages.

all your assumptions are based on wishful thinking and little evidence of armstrongs actual performances this year.

you basically look silly or incompetent by stating that a 4th place in a 10 minute flat prologue somehow indicates armstrong's high mountains performance.


all i did i cautioned you and i gave armstrong credit.

and you now try to win an argument by further nonsensical speculation.

your posts wont be merited from now on.

 

[Cerberus]

all your assumptions are based on wishful thinking and little evidence armstrongs actual performances.

No, if I was making assumptions based on wishful thinking I'd have predicted that Andy Schleck would win the Tour and If I wanted to venture into la-la land I'd predict Fuglsang coming in 2nd. I'm a Saxo fan in case you missed the memo.

your posts wont be merited from now on.

However shall I survive.

 

[Publicus]

No that's not what I'm saying. I think that Prologue results should be judged according to rider types. Contador is a light climber type. Finishing 6th on a pancake flat prologue is IMO a fairly good result for him. I expect him to dominate as much this year as the last.

I can definitely see how you'd think he wasn't strong based on that, and it's perfectly reasonable to draw that conclusion. Personally however I'm hesitant to draw conclusions based on pre-tour races because the main contenders for the Tour might not ehm, let's say "prepare" as well for those races as they do for the Tour.

Interesting. Ok. I'm not willing to draw too many inferences from Armstrong's prologue because I think some of the earlier riders were influenced by the conditions so it could skew his actual results a bit (same with Contador). Interestingly enough, I think Frank was the strongest of the Schleck Brothers (because of the prologue) and I think his loss is going to weigh heavy on the team.

 

[python]

you have a way of stretching simple things into wild projections and conclusions. that's wishful thinking. i care little if you post but i do hope you survive. good buy.

 

[Mellow Velo]

Today was an indication of desperation for the Shack.
They rode 100kms at the front of the peloton.
Why?
Hoping for a crosswind that never looked like materialising.

IMO, A pretty good indication that Lance doesn't think he can climb his way back into contention over Contador, Schleck or Cuddles.
Not really a surprise.

 

[Cerberus]

Interesting. Ok. I'm not willing to draw too many inferences from Armstrong's prologue because I think some of the earlier riders were influenced by the conditions so it could skew his actual results a bit (same with Contador).

Ok, weather is clearly a factor, I was under the impression based on the Danish commentators that the weather hadn't changed that much, but if it did clearly you have to factor that in (or throw the entire thing out the window).

Interestingly enough, I think Frank was the strongest of the Schleck Brothers (because of the prologue) and I think his loss is going to weigh heavy on the team.

Drawing conclusions based on the prologue? My cult is gaining followers .

Just don't let Python hear you, he'll never respect you again.

Seriously though, I was also considering whether Frank might be the stronger, partially because of the prologue and partially because of the early season where Andy clearly hasn't been where he should be even for the Ardennes that he was targeting. I'm a bit concerned that it's more a matter of Andy being weaker than usual than Frank being stronger though. I guess we'll see about that in the coming weeks, at least for Andy's part.

 

[SpartacusRox]

Armstrong was fastest Radioshack rider in position 32. Hmm - if that is a team success, I would not like to see their failures...

Given that this is one stage in a long race, it is incredibly dumb to talk of 'failure'. Plus 'position' is hardly a good indicator given that time is the critical issue not position and you could finish 50th in a bunch sprint and have the same time as the winner.

Riding on the pave is always a bit of a lottery and punctures at the wrong time cost riders dearly, as they did with Chavenel, Rogers, Sastre, Geisink as well as Armstrong.

 

[SpartacusRox]

all your assumptions are based on wishful thinking and little evidence of armstrongs actual performances this year.

you basically look silly or incompetent by stating that a 4th place in a 10 minute flat prologue somehow indicates armstrong's high mountains performance.


all i did i cautioned you and i gave armstrong credit.

and you now try to win an argument by further nonsensical speculation.

your posts wont be merited from now on.

While I agree in part, historically the prologue positions of the GC contenders have been fairly good indicators of their final positions.

 

[hrotha]

While I agree in part, historically the prologue positions of the GC contenders have been fairly good indicators of their final positions.

I'm not going to deny that assertion, but has anyone actually studied it? Can we get some statistics? It could be interesting.

Also, the prologue was not enough to say Fränk was better than Andy but when you take the TdS + an abysmal ride by Andy in the prologue... Sure, definitive judgment needed to be postponed until the first mountain stage, but it didn't bode well for Andy.

 

[Publicus]

Ok, weather is clearly a factor, I was under the impression based on the Danish commentators that the weather hadn't changed that much, but if it did clearly you have to factor that in (or throw the entire thing out the window).
Drawing conclusions based on the prologue? My cult is gaining followers .

Just don't let Python hear you, he'll never respect you again.

Seriously though, I was also considering whether Frank might be the stronger, partially because of the prologue and partially because of the early season where Andy clearly hasn't been where he should be even for the Ardennes that he was targeting. I'm a bit concerned that it's more a matter of Andy being weaker than usual than Frank being stronger though. I guess we'll see about that in the coming weeks, at least for Andy's part.

It wasn't just the prologue. I don't think Andy takes this stuff seriously sometimes. Like he can turn it on and off at a whim. His form has been spotty all year. At the prologue Frank looked like he was on excellent form and his result was pretty good for him. Just overall, I thought he has on the upward slope more so than Andy--who, as I said, looked like he was expecting it all to come together at some point over the next week or so.

 

[Dominar]

It wasn't just the prologue. I don't think Andy takes this stuff seriously sometimes. Like he can turn it on and off at a whim. His form has been spotty all year. At the prologue Frank looked like he was on excellent form and his result was pretty good for him. Just overall, I thought he has on the upward slope more so than Andy--who, as I said, looked like he was expecting it all to come together at some point over the next week or so.

This has been my exact thought for the past several months, based on watching the various riders' tweets (yeah, scientific, I know ). It's hard to quantify it, but I got the impression he was kicking back just a bit too much compared to what the others were doing. His attitude was too casual, if that makes sense. So, while I expect his talent and his youth to allow him to improve as the Tour moves into the 3rd week, he's going to have to learn more discipline as he gets older -- age reduces your ability to cut corners -- or else he may never fully achieve his potential as a rider.

 

[alberto.legstrong]

Ok, weather is clearly a factor, I was under the impression based on the Danish commentators that the weather hadn't changed that much, but if it did clearly you have to factor that in (or throw the entire thing out the window).
Drawing conclusions based on the prologue? My cult is gaining followers .

Just don't let Python hear you, he'll never respect you again.

Seriously though, I was also considering whether Frank might be the stronger, partially because of the prologue and partially because of the early season where Andy clearly hasn't been where he should be even for the Ardennes that he was targeting. I'm a bit concerned that it's more a matter of Andy being weaker than usual than Frank being stronger though. I guess we'll see about that in the coming weeks, at least for Andy's part.

Frank seemed like he had better form this season and that doesn't even factor in the prologue. the prologue just confirmed Andy's form. I think people saying Andy isn't going to miss/need Frank are jut spinning. That weakens Andy's chances. Andy has been off all year.

Evans is the bigger threat to AC.

 

[Arnout]

Gert Steegmans visited the RadioShack teambus today and reports tension an hour before todays stage in the team bus was surprisingly high. He didn't know the details (or didn't want to tell it).

But I thought you might want to know to laugh some more at Lance

 

[roundabout]

Schlecks were reasonably close in form in the spring classics (2 top 10 for both) with Andy having his preparation derailed by knee problems.

Fränk was apparently in a shape of his life and does historically show more form before the targetted events.

All in all, losing Fränk is a setback, but i wouldn't write Andy off because of a singular bad day.

 

[alberto.legstrong]

This has been my exact thought for the past several months, based on watching the various riders' tweets (yeah, scientific, I know ). It's hard to quantify it, but I got the impression he was kicking back just a bit too much compared to what the others were doing. His attitude was too casual, if that makes sense. So, while I expect his talent and his youth to allow him to improve as the Tour moves into the 3rd week, he's going to have to learn more discipline as he gets older -- age reduces your ability to cut corners -- or else he may never fully achieve his potential as a rider.

I think the three of us (Publicus) are echoing each other's impressions of Andy too much.

He strikes me as a guy who has had a huge book report due at school since the 1st week of the semester and just procrastinated beyond any hope of submitting a paper that will get him above a C grade. He also seems like it doesn't matter too much to him that he got a C when he is obviosuly one of the smartest kids in the class.

I noticed it last year after the tour. He really seemed unfazed and 'Oh Well...' that he came in 2nd. I suppose it is good to an EXTENT that that sort of thing doesn't put him out on the ledge, but he goes too far the other way.

 

[VeloCity]

Andy Schleck finished this years prologue almost exactly the same amount of time behind Contador - ~40-50 secs - as last year's prologue. I don't understand why this year's prologue should be any more an indication of his form than last year's???

 

[alberto.legstrong]

Gert Steegmans visited the RadioShack teambus today and reports tension an hour before todays stage in the team bus was surprisingly high. He didn't know the details (or didn't want to tell it).

But I thought you might want to know to laugh some more at Lance

Not much of a shock there. They rode like they had a lot to learn. Watching him skipping from side to side of the cobbles he appeared panicked.

 

[Publicus]

Schlecks were reasonably close in form in the spring classics (2 top 10 for both) with Andy having his preparation derailed by knee problems.

Fränk was apparently in a shape of his life and does historically show more form before the targetted events.

All in all, losing Fränk is a setback, but i wouldn't write Andy off because of a singular bad day.

I don't think anyone is writing Andy off. At least I know that I am not. He could certainly round into form and be an absolute terror in the mountains this year. I was just comparing his form to his brother's form. Part of what made Saxo Bank such a powerful and dangerous team was the dual threat posed by Frank and Andy in the mountains. You had to watch both. You had to follow any move either made or else. Now? Just Andy. And they are down a super domestique. While I don't doubt that the rest of the squad will lay it on the line for Andy when the time comes, I'm positive he would be better with Frank there.

 

[Publicus]

andy schleck finished this years prologue almost exactly the same amount of time behind contador - ~40-50 secs - as last year's prologue. I don't understand why this year's prologue should be any more an indication of his form than last year's???

8.9 km < 15 km.

 

[El Oso]

8.9 km < 15 km.

+ pancake flat vs. climbing