Sky GT Lineup 2012

[Ferminal]

I've only been following cycling for the last couple of years, so I miss out some of the intricacies. Particularly something I don't understand is the circumstances in which Wiggins is likely to get isolated, and how having an entire team around him helps?

Obviously if he crashes/gets held up on a stage then the team might work for him to get back to the group, but presuming that doesn't happen every day I don't really get how having four or five team-mates with him in the mountains helps that much - say he's following the heads of state up a mountain, and Contador, Evans and Schleck take turns to attack surely he either holds on or he blows up? I don't really understand how trying to follow a team mates wheel who is following Contador's wheel would make holding on any easier than just following Contador himself. (If that makes sense.) (And see the Angrilu in this year's Vuelta when the presence of Frome didn't help him much!)

Sorry, not meaning to be argumentative, these are genuine questions coming from ignorance. But let's say Cav has two/three break pullers and two others in the train, and then there's Wiggins with say Uran and Frome working for him in the mountains, what are the situations in which Wiggins would need the others, and how would they working for Cavendish on some of the flat stages affect their ability to help?

It's not a silly question at all. I actually think it's a valid point.

A teammate on an MTF isn't going to get you to the line much quicker, unless that teammate is stronger, and if they're stronger overall, they shouldn't be working for you to start with. Look at Evans, no real team support at all on the MTFs yet he was convincing enough in the mountains to win the race. Evans doesn't actually want a high tempo in the mountains if all he needs to do is defend against Schleck and Contador (and because he's the strongest, when they do attack it's him not a teammate who would be chasing). It's the opposite for the attacking climbers who want teammates to apply pressure early on so that their attacks have more impact. If all goes to plan in the ITTs, Wiggins is going to play it similar to Evans.

The exception to the above is if you can play a tactical bluff on your opponents, like Nibali & Szmyd on Finestre

Of course, Evans' lack of team almost cost him as he had no one to chase Andy on the long flat/false flat. This is the scenario when you do need someone who can climb in your team. The best thing about Sky though is that they have guys like Rogers, EBH and Porte who can be useful on the flat, but also get over most of the early climbs on a mountain stage. Wiggins has looked a bit shaky descending so teammates would be good help there also. As long as a few guys get over Grand Colombier on 10 and Croix de Fer on 11 with him he should be fine.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

it's true. Team mates in the mountains can only get you so far. AT the end of the day you gotta have the goods.

However thier usefulness can be seen when one wants to control the pace, whetear it be rapid or a reduced pace. Also as ferminal suggested having riders to do crucial chases after cols can make a world of difference even in regards to ones enery reserve. ALso with punctures, water collecting etc. Always useful to have. And of course when on ehas a bad day, having a team mate to help on front for not can be a great help. And of course patiently neutralizing on and off tempo attacks.

As for actually destorying the field, this is more useful to the higher rated climbers. One who has used it well in the past is obviously basso, as he enjoys a harder tempo.

 

[greenedge]

If Sky assume the race lead ( Wiggins/ Froome ) riders like EBH/ Eisel shall have to ride on the front for them.

TDF team:
Cav
Wiggins
Froome
Uran
Porte
EBH
Rogers/ Knees/ Pate
Flecha/ Sutton/ Swift
Eisel.
If Sutton were to go that would free up riders like EBH to not only chase wins/ help Cav ( not as a lead-out ) but also help Wiggins on the flats and maybe if in good form the mountains ( allevard ) and the hills.

 

[greenedge]

It's not a silly question at all. I actually think it's a valid point.

A teammate on an MTF isn't going to get you to the line much quicker, unless that teammate is stronger, and if they're stronger overall, they shouldn't be working for you to start with. Look at Evans, no real team support at all on the MTFs yet he was convincing enough in the mountains to win the race. Evans doesn't actually want a high tempo in the mountains if all he needs to do is defend against Schleck and Contador (and because he's the strongest, when they do attack it's him not a teammate who would be chasing). It's the opposite for the attacking climbers who want teammates to apply pressure early on so that their attacks have more impact. If all goes to plan in the ITTs, Wiggins is going to play it similar to Evans.

The exception to the above is if you can play a tactical bluff on your opponents, like Nibali & Szmyd on Finestre

Of course, Evans' lack of team almost cost him as he had no one to chase Andy on the long flat/false flat. This is the scenario when you do need someone who can climb in your team. The best thing about Sky though is that they have guys like Rogers, EBH and Porte who can be useful on the flat, but also get over most of the early climbs on a mountain stage. Wiggins has looked a bit shaky descending so teammates would be good help there also. As long as a few guys get over Grand Colombier on 10 and Croix de Fer on 11 with him he should be fine.

All good points but Wiggins also needs teammates with him in the sense that he is not as good a climber as Evans. So it's a bit different.
Next year however he shall have a lot of help ( even with Henao not in the TDF team ). I would love for Henao to help Froome at the Vuelta.

 

[greenedge]

I didn't pick him for my CQ team due to the uncertainty of his program, but Geraint not doing the cobbled classics It's just wrong.

Pick him up cheap next year. Though he might get a lot of points for the start of the year ( he won't at the end ) but the start will be indicative of his talent/ whether he will be worth it for 2013.

 

[RownhamHill]

Didn't see Froome pulling Wiggo at the Vuelta?

A helper is needed when you are weak, when you want to make hard a climb, when you have to counter a move like Andy (and his team) at Galibier or when you want to make a move like Andy.

If Wiggo is alone with the heads of state in the last climb with 4 to go, well, pick up your pace and cut the losses, you'll lose small time. French Mountains aren't to steep so Wiggo can hold. The only weakness for him is the stage 7 and maybe the ardennes stage, here he needs his team. Of course he will be outclimbed by Andy and Contador if they are good.

But I think RadioSchleck will replicate a massive attack with Andy in one of the mountain stages so he'll need his team fresh. With only 3-4 riders Cav can't catch the breaks and build a train. Maybe Greenedge can take the rol but I think they'll play poker with Sky.

Velits and Tony Martin have been scaped from Cavendish to get a free role at least at Great Tours. For a sponsor is better to be involved in a GC battle than winning sprints and the green yersey. The audience in a "GC stage" is huge. I bet Sky won't succed at this two fronts

Thanks for this reply, but still I'm a bit confused. What happens if Wiggins isn't alone in the mountains, but he's with Uran and Froome? That still leaves five riders to work for Cav (+him of course) on the flats - doesn't it?

And if radioshack do a massive attack in the mountains, surely all (!?) Wiggins still has to follow Andy's wheel through it all and then at the end? Not saying that's easy, but I just don't really get how having three or four of your own jerseys in the pace line ahead of you helps you hold onto the attack.

Still I'm not saying they'll succeed on two fronts - just not sure how Wiggins having eight team mates working for him solely would help him succeed! Thanks again for the response though, it's appreciated.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

All good points but Wiggins also needs teammates with him in the sense that he is not as good a climber as Evans. So it's a bit different.
Next year however he shall have a lot of help ( even with Henao not in the TDF team ). I would love for Henao to help Froome at the Vuelta.

are you for real?? guys like uran and henao will outcxlimb froome and wiggins certainly. especially wiggins is so overrated. have you guys not sene the vuelta? not following riders like mollema up the mountains means you will have a very hard time making top ten wether there are time trial kilometers or not. the mountains always decide

 

[RownhamHill]

It's not a silly question at all. I actually think it's a valid point. . .

. . .. Wiggins has looked a bit shaky descending so teammates would be good help there also. As long as a few guys get over Grand Colombier on 10 and Croix de Fer on 11 with him he should be fine.

it's true. Team mates in the mountains can only get you so far. AT the end of the day you gotta have the goods. . .
As for actually destorying the field, this is more useful to the higher rated climbers. One who has used it well in the past is obviously basso, as he enjoys a harder tempo.

All good points but Wiggins also needs teammates with him in the sense that he is not as good a climber as Evans. So it's a bit different.
Next year however he shall have a lot of help ( even with Henao not in the TDF team ). I would love for Henao to help Froome at the Vuelta.

Thanks for all these further responses as well, should have read the thread fully before replying above. I do get that he needs some help from team mates, just not sure why he needs more than a couple of them in almost every given situation, with the rest working for Cav!

Although obviously if Wiggins assumes the leadership at some point then all bets would be off for using the team to setup stage wins (although unless green jersey rivals got in the break this wouldn't necessarily hurt Cav's chances of the green jersey would it?).

 

[will10]

are you for real?? guys like uran and henao will outcxlimb froome and wiggins certainly. especially wiggins is so overrated. have you guys not sene the vuelta? not following riders like mollema up the mountains means you will have a very hard time making top ten wether there are time trial kilometers or not. the mountains always decide

To be honest, this probably didn't help his Vuelta "prep"

 

[JRanton]

Thomas not being at the Tour is a pretty massive blow in my opinion because he could act as a specialist lead out for Cavenish as well as offering good support to Wiggins in the hilly stages and probably even the odd mountain stage too. He's basically the perfect support rider for the dual goal of winning green and yellow.

I think it could all end in tears if EBH is the final lead out man for Cavendish. EBH is great but he's not exactly the bravest when it comes to the jostling for position in the last 1 km. Obviously Eisel would play a big role as the third to last man in the train but it would still get very messy at times when he hands over to Hagen. The question is, can you afford to select someone like Sutton as a specialist lead out for Cavendish and still have enough support for Wiggins when the race goes uphill? That would be Sutton, Cav, Eisel and at least one punch puller such as Pate who wouldn't be of any use.

Some very interesting selection decisions for Sky but I think the balance and strength of the support riders would have been close to perfect had Thomas been able:

Wiggins
Froome
Uran
Rogers
Thomas
EBH
Eisel
Cavendish
Pate

Brailsford is understandably aware of the challenge:

The key dilemma for Dave Brailsford and his managers will be how to select the five riders who will support Wiggins and Cavendish, and the other two automatic selections, the Vuelta runner-up, Chris Froome, and the Norwegian all-rounder Edvald Boasson-Hagen. Those five will form a "super team within a team" according to Brailsford, and, he says, can "make or break" the race for Sky.

"They have to be world-class riders in their own right. They will have to have the mind-set that they are the guys that actually make this team win. That's what has been taxing our minds, we have been putting a lot of thought into that, about what type of rider and what it would take in order to take on that challenge."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2012/jan/04/bradley-wiggins-mark-cavendish-tour?newsfeed=true

 

[Dancing On The Pedals]

Thanks for this reply, but still I'm a bit confused. What happens if Wiggins isn't alone in the mountains, but he's with Uran and Froome? That still leaves five riders to work for Cav (+him of course) on the flats - doesn't it?

Still I'm not saying they'll succeed on two fronts - just not sure how Wiggins having eight team mates working for him solely would help him succeed! Thanks again for the response though, it's appreciated.

My point was that although the domestiques will be equally adept at working on the flat and when the road goes up, the problem lies in the fact that they will be working on nearly every stage. They won't get any 'time off' as it were, of being able to conserve energy by rolling in 10 mins down on a flat stage because they'll have been bringing the break back etc. And then the next day they'll be expected to be doing a job for Wiggins in a mountain stage.

I think he showed in the Vuelta that he doesn't need a full team driving the pace up a mountain - he can follow wheels and then tt his way the the top as and when he needs to, but he will at least need some support to get him to the base of the final climb having been protected out of the wind etc all day.

And at the risk of incurring the wrath of Ryo, Henao is unproven in Europe - although I look forward to seeing what he can do at the Vuelta, and Uran seems a bit inconsistent. And at what point were either Froome or Wiggins sufficiently outperformed by Mollema that they were struggling for the top 10? The Vuelta I was watching, they finished 2nd and 3rd, ahead of TGBM.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

froome was better than mollema yes. I didn't mention him. but wiggins finished 3rd because of the itt, in mountains/hills mollema was at least equal of wiggins save angliru, but mollema took time on him again in pena cabarga asnd some in smaller time in other uphill finishes. I think wiggins is a good climber but he is very overrated in my book. the guy is very unexplosive and herefore will always lose time on punchy finishes. see also last years tours 4th stage where uran was within the first and wiggins wasn't. according to uran he has a free role in the tour and he wont'have to help wiggins unless uran is out of a gt placing. he wants to win the white jersey which honestly is much better price than wiggins finishing 5th or 6th or something

 

[RownhamHill]

My point was that although the domestiques will be equally adept at working on the flat and when the road goes up, the problem lies in the fact that they will be working on nearly every stage. They won't get any 'time off' as it were, of being able to conserve energy by rolling in 10 mins down on a flat stage because they'll have been bringing the break back etc. And then the next day they'll be expected to be doing a job for Wiggins in a mountain stage.

I think he showed in the Vuelta that he doesn't need a full team driving the pace up a mountain - he can follow wheels and then tt his way the the top as and when he needs to, but he will at least need some support to get him to the base of the final climb having been protected out of the wind etc all day.

OK, that makes perfect sense, thanks for explaining for me!

 

[Captain_Cavman]

Thomas not being at the Tour is a pretty massive blow in my opinion because he could act as a specialist lead out for Cavenish as well as offering good support to Wiggins in the hilly stages and probably even the odd mountain stage too. He's basically the perfect support rider for the dual goal of winning green and yellow.

I think it could all end in tears if EBH is the final lead out man for Cavendish. EBH is great but he's not exactly the bravest when it comes to the jostling for position in the last 1 km. Obviously Eisel would play a big role as the third to last man in the train but it would still get very messy at times when he hands over to Hagen. The question is, can you afford to select someone like Sutton as a specialist lead out for Cavendish and still have enough support for Wiggins when the race goes uphill? That would be Sutton, Cav, Eisel and at least one punch puller such as Pate who wouldn't be of any use.

Some very interesting selection decisions for Sky but I think the balance and strength of the support riders would have been close to perfect had Thomas been able:

Wiggins
Froome
Uran
Rogers
Thomas
EBH
Eisel
Cavendish
Pate

Brailsford is understandably aware of the challenge:



http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2012/jan/04/bradley-wiggins-mark-cavendish-tour?newsfeed=true

I agree with your points about Thomas. To the extent that it may not be worth taking anyone specifically for Cavendish if there's no one good enough and let him fend for himself in the bunch finishes.

Interesting about Froome being an automatic choice. No hint of the Vuelta performance being a one-off. Maybe going as a wild card, race your own race and see where we are come crunch time.

 

[JRanton]

froome was better than mollema yes. I didn't mention him. but wiggins finished 3rd because of the itt, in mountains/hills mollema was at least equal of wiggins save angliru, but mollema took time on him again in pena cabarga asnd some in smaller time in other uphill finishes. I think wiggins is a good climber but he is very overrated in my book. the guy is very unexplosive and herefore will always lose time on punchy finishes. see also last years tours 4th stage where uran was within the first and wiggins wasn't. according to uran he has a free role in the tour and he wont'have to help wiggins unless uran is out of a gt placing. he wants to win the white jersey which honestly is much better price than wiggins finishing 5th or 6th or something

No way will Uran have a free role. He'll be working for Wiggins in the mountains. It will be hard enough supporting Wiggins and Cavendish without Uran riding for himself and targeting the white jersey. We might well even see Uran pulling back breaks on the front of the peleton for Cavendish if things get really desperate.

 

[Frosty]

Obviously Cav is going to be the man to beat in the sprints so there will be a lot of work to do. However, wont Greenedge be pretty keen for it all to come back together too? Maybe Cav's team will have more help than in previous years, especially if the likes of Goss and Greipel do well early this season. Difficult to tell how much of a factor this will be until closer to the time.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

No way will Uran have a free role. He'll be working for Wiggins in the mountains. It will be hard enough supporting Wiggins and Cavendish without Uran riding for himself and targeting the white jersey. We might well even see Uran pulling back breaks on the front of the peleton for Cavendish if things get really desperate.

yeah I;m sure uran was lieing and you know better

 

[simo1733]

I think he's already said he won't be riding the track again after London. A home Olympics only comes around once in a rider's career, sometimes not even that often. He has plenty of years to go for Flanders and Roubaix from 2013 onwards.



Clashes with Track Worlds

This is true,but I don't think GB will beat the Aussies and maybe not even the Kiwi's

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Obviously Cav is going to be the man to beat in the sprints so there will be a lot of work to do. However, wont Greenedge be pretty keen for it all to come back together too? Maybe Cav's team will have more help than in previous years, especially if the likes of Goss and Greipel do well early this season. Difficult to tell how much of a factor this will be until closer to the time.

The ideal situation for Sky would be for 1t4i or whatever Skil are now called to get a wildcard. That would mean that there would be two teams (including GreenEdge) who would be pretty much all about the sprints, plus the possibility of some assistance from Lotto and Garmin. Sky will always fancy Cavendish to get the better of Kittel, Goss, Farrar and Greipel more times than not.

If they don't get some significant help from those teams on the flat stages, then the different ambitions of Wiggins and Cavendish will cause significant wear and tear on the domestiques.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

yeah I;m sure uran was lieing and you know better

I don't think it's about lying. Teams can leave a lot of things ambiguous before the season starts, and presumably Sky will have been making soothing noises to all of their significant talents about how they'll get their opportunities.

The thing is though that Sky will be going into the Tour with very real ambitions to both win a bunch of stages and Green with Cavendish and put in a serious GC challenge for Wiggins (on a parcours that presents a once in a decade opportunity for him). That means that there will be immense strain on their support riders, at least three of whom (EBH, Froome, Uran) might under most circumstances be given their head.

I'm profoundly dubious that any team can go to the Tour and make a serious attempt to win Yellow with one rider, Green and stages with a second, White with a third, stages with a fourth and then also hope for a decent GC showing from a fifth rider. In fact, scratch the dubious bit. It simply can't be done. I strongly suspect that the closest thing to a "free role" anyone will be getting will be EBH getting a shot on an intermediate stage or tricky finish or two and even he'll be working like a dog the rest of the time.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

what will happen is the same as last year. uran won't have to do any work and whoever rides the best in the mountains or is placed the best after certain stages will be the leader. he won't be pulling for cavendish. that's for sure

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

what will happen is the same as last year. uran won't have to do any work and whoever rides the best in the mountains or is placed the best after certain stages will be the leader. he won't be pulling for cavendish. that's for sure

Wiggins crashed out last year and there was no Cavendish, so of course the likes of Uran had their freedom. Sky hope to have bigger fish to fry this year.

Why would they give Uran a free role? As opposed to EBH or Froome? (I don't think that either of them will be getting a proper free role either). Are you really suggesting that they are going to the Tour with the best sprinter and a GC podium contender and then just let their other riders do what they want?

Sky would have to be stone cold mental to spend huge money on Cavendish and then not have the team work for him.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

because ebh can't do a gc or win massprints. he can win in escapes and I'm sure he will be allowed that. other stages he will have to work while uran can win the white jersey, which is his personal goal he said. wiggins can't win any jersey nor stages as his itt isn't better than martin and that leaves only cavendish yes. he will be helped out well, but not as well as with htc I would think. Don't expect uran to be in his train he can't position too well. froome we have yet to see what he is capable of. according to brailsford he isn't even sure of riding the tour which says a lot to me. still I think is froome and uran will do the tour they will do better than wiggins for sure. froome in the mountains and uran will be with him and froome's itt is better than uran and none of them will wait for wiggins to drag his *** up the climbs for a 6th place in gc. nobody cares about that. they probably go into the tour saying wiggins this and that so the pressure is on him and not the others but it was pretty clear even begore wiggins crashed out last year uran was a protected rider

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

because ebh can't do a gc or win massprints. he can win in escapes and I'm sure he will be allowed that. other stages he will have to work while uran can win the white jersey, which is his personal goal he said. wiggins can't win any jersey nor stages as his itt isn't better than martin and that leaves only cavendish yes. he will be helped out well, but not as well as with htc I would think. Don't expect uran to be in his train he can't position too well. froome we have yet to see what he is capable of. according to brailsford he isn't even sure of riding the tour which says a lot to me. still I think is froome and uran will do the tour they will do better than wiggins for sure. froome in the mountains and uran will be with him and froome's itt is better than uran and none of them will wait for wiggins to drag his *** up the climbs for a 6th place in gc. nobody cares about that. they probably go into the tour saying wiggins this and that so the pressure is on him and not the others but it was pretty clear even begore wiggins crashed out last year uran was a protected rider

Not rating Wiggins is one thing (and not an unreasonable position to take given that he's produced a decent result only twice in Grand Tours), but there's a difference between thinking that he will do poorly and thinking that Sky believe he will do poorly.

Sky obviously think that he has what it takes to get a Tour podium, and they'll only be more convinced of it with this parcours. They are paying him a lot of money, he is one of the main public faces of the team, he had a very good Vuelta coming back from injury and they had Froome working for him until very late on. I know that you rate Uran more highly than Wiggins, but surely even you have to accept that yours is a minority opinion and not one that Sky are remotely likely to share.

If Wiggins bombs then Froome or Uran will get their head (more likely Froome). But unless and until that happens I think you are going to be very unpleasantly surprised when it comes to Sky's priorities. A GC leader + the best sprinter = little in the way of opportunities for anyone else. Winning White would be a big deal for Uran, but it's not a big deal for Sky.

 

[Mambo95]

Sky have seven riders who have finished in the top 20 of a Grand Tour in the last three years.

Uran isn't one of them.

He needs to focus on making the team.