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Bad news: they have just three high mountain stages (11,16,17) to gain time on Sky; 6 days between stage 11 and 16.
MTF at Colombier and loopless finish in Foix (Peregue 26km before finsh) would have meant they have 5 stages to attack (10,11,14,16,17).
Good news: 11,16,17 are multiple climb stages and it is possible to gain minutes in these stages.
If they drop Wiggins once or twice but don't get 4-5 minutues to be safe for ITT there might be question if Wiggins was the best rider or has Wiggins won because of lame high mountain stages.
MTF at Colombier and loopless finish in Foix (Peregue 26km before finsh) would have meant they have 5 stages to attack (10,11,14,16,17).
Good news: 11,16,17 are multiple climb stages and it is possible to gain minutes in these stages.
If they drop Wiggins once or twice but don't get 4-5 minutues to be safe for ITT there might be question if Wiggins was the best rider or has Wiggins won because of lame high mountain stages.
I don't think there is anything that Evans can do to gain back time on Wiggins (barring accidents etc). It would take a rider like Contador or Andy to take off on a climb and distance Wiggins. Evans is just not that type of rider, he doesn't have the rapid accelaration on climbs.
The only person in the current TDF peleton that I could see putting time into Wiggins on a mountain top finish is Froome, who would unfortunately be castrated if he tried anything.
The only person in the current TDF peleton that I could see putting time into Wiggins on a mountain top finish is Froome, who would unfortunately be castrated if he tried anything.
Simple job to Evans to win the Tour in my opinion.
If he continues his massive attacks in the last 300 meters of each stage and wins a second for each stage, in just 114 stages he will have the yellow jersey!
If he continues his massive attacks in the last 300 meters of each stage and wins a second for each stage, in just 114 stages he will have the yellow jersey!
SantiBotero said:
And then after one ITT, he'll be down 2 minutes again!
I'd like to see Evans take the approach of "it's the yellow jersey or nothing" and go for broke for the rest of the TDF.
Wiggins behaved 'respectless' against Nibali, according to Nibali
http://www.cyclingweekly.co.uk/news...ts-out-at-wiggins-after-tour-frustration.html
http://www.cyclingweekly.co.uk/news...ts-out-at-wiggins-after-tour-frustration.html
Just tossing stuff at the wall to see what sticks:
1. Get teammate who is a solid climber into the break on a big mountain stage, preferably with HC as the penultimate climb, while the rest of your team sets a torrid pace at the front with the rest of your teammates over the previous mountains to hopefully isolate Froome/Wiggins.
2. Teammate in the break gets about halfway up penultimate climb, then begins dropping back, while you make multiple attacks about 1/3 of way up climb and force Froome/Wiggins to respond.
3. When teammate on breakaway is nearly caught, jump onto his wheel and have him burn himself up riding a crazy high tempo while you work to recover from previous efforts. Attack out of his slipstream as soon as he tires or as you get close to the top of the climb.
4. Go absolutely nuts on the descent. Hopefully you get a gap you can stretch and solo to the finish or catch the remaining break and work with them. If that doesn't work to get a gap, have another contender with a teammate in the break try the same thing on the final climb of the day.
Repeat whenever possible. If I'm Evans or Nibali, my goal is to make sure that every time Sky sees a BMC or Liquigas rider in the break, they freak out because they know that attacks are coming early and often on the climbs, with further help coming from above.
Something has to happen - these little attacks by Cadel at the end aren't going to work, though I like the fighting spirit. If Sky isn't put under pressure soon, the only hope will be attacking near the top of the last climb and dropping thumbtacks on the road as you go over the top.
1. Get teammate who is a solid climber into the break on a big mountain stage, preferably with HC as the penultimate climb, while the rest of your team sets a torrid pace at the front with the rest of your teammates over the previous mountains to hopefully isolate Froome/Wiggins.
2. Teammate in the break gets about halfway up penultimate climb, then begins dropping back, while you make multiple attacks about 1/3 of way up climb and force Froome/Wiggins to respond.
3. When teammate on breakaway is nearly caught, jump onto his wheel and have him burn himself up riding a crazy high tempo while you work to recover from previous efforts. Attack out of his slipstream as soon as he tires or as you get close to the top of the climb.
4. Go absolutely nuts on the descent. Hopefully you get a gap you can stretch and solo to the finish or catch the remaining break and work with them. If that doesn't work to get a gap, have another contender with a teammate in the break try the same thing on the final climb of the day.
Repeat whenever possible. If I'm Evans or Nibali, my goal is to make sure that every time Sky sees a BMC or Liquigas rider in the break, they freak out because they know that attacks are coming early and often on the climbs, with further help coming from above.
Something has to happen - these little attacks by Cadel at the end aren't going to work, though I like the fighting spirit. If Sky isn't put under pressure soon, the only hope will be attacking near the top of the last climb and dropping thumbtacks on the road as you go over the top.
Oh boy Wiggo is playing with fire, did anybody tell him that Nibali is Sicilian? Does he know he's a direct descendant of Vito Corleone.Dekker_Tifosi said:
Armanius said:
I think Evans cares about finishing as high up as he can in GC though. If he can't win, he'll want to be 2nd.
cineteq said:Oh boy Wiggo is playing with fire, did anybody tell him that Nibali is Sicilian? Does he know he's a descendant of Vito Corleone.
Post of the year.
Dekker_Tifosi said:
I don't see anything wrong with a little taunting! Best way to pay it back is by dropping Wiggins tomorrow.
Dekker_Tifosi said:
i'm definitely more a fan of nibali than wiggins, but nibs asked for it when commented that wiggins didn't rate as a contender.
wiggins gesture won't exactly help him in the PR department though. he continues to come off as a d$ck of the highest degree.
Nibali being given a taste of his own medicine?
Fact is Nibali is not and will never be good enough to win the tour. Evans however can, but he needs to go with JVDB and actually attack more than 300 metres from the finish line.
Fact is Nibali is not and will never be good enough to win the tour. Evans however can, but he needs to go with JVDB and actually attack more than 300 metres from the finish line.
Moviefan1203 said:
If that's the case, Evans won't need to attack. Just suck Wiggins' wheel for the rest of the TDF. But having won once already, I'd think that Evans is at the point of his life where a 2d or 3d place finish isn't a priority. Just my thought.
In theory it would help to drop Wiggins at a crucial time and force Sky to choose between having Froome stay with Bradley or go with Cadel. But the problem with that is Froome is TTing so much better than Cadel.
Hayabusa said:
I'ts beyond me how you can be sure about this when freaking Oscar Pereiro has won a TdF not longer than 6 years ago.
Plus Nibali is a better rider than Cadel was at his age.
I don't mind the taunting by Wiggins though. He enjoys playing the villain.
Dekker_Tifosi said:
I recall Nibali also said something similar about Contador last year on Zoncolan. He must have some sort of fixation with other riders looking at him.
SafeBet said:
Pereiro "won" due to a long breakaway. Nibali would never be allowed such freedom, Nibali is a 4-10th place guy, occasionally might achieve more in situations such as this when Contador and Schleck aren't competing but he will never win a Tour.
He's not good enough, he's a talented cyclist but he lacks the top end that a guy like Contador has.
SafeBet said:
Maybe, but Evans was a mountain biker at first, he only switched to road in mid-2000, when he was already 23 years old.
Nibali's been a professional for 7 years. Cadel had a 2nd in the TDF in his 6th year as a professional in 2006.
A lot of people are better than Cadel was at the same age. Not a lot of people are better than Cadel was with the same amount of experience.
Hayabusa said:
Contador is the best of the best. Nobody's got his top end.
And I'll repeat myself. You can't be sure of what's gonna happen in the future. At 27 Cadel was not the rider he is now. Same goes for another TdF winner as Sastre. Some riders peak later in their careers, and Nibbles is still improving as a rider.
I'm pretty sure there plenty of fans claiming Evans would have never won a Tour when he was 27.
Warhawk said:
You're right.
In fact I'm not saying Nibali will be better than Cadel at 34 or 35. I'm saying you can't discard he will. And you can't be sure he'll never win a TdF, as previously stated by Hayabusa.
SafeBet said:
FWIW I agree, just saying that Cadel's not the best measuring stick in this situation.
Granted I'm not expecting Nibali to win one, but I wouldn't be shocked.
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