So what do Evans and Nibs have to do to win this?

[Panda Claws]

Froome and Wiggins were alone at the end of stage 8 I think (the one Pinot won), what makes you think Sky will still be as strong at the end of a real tough mountain stage, especially since Froome couldn't close the little gap at the end anymore.

 

[johnnycash]

I haven't seen enough from Nibali to make me think he can win this, barring major disaster fro Sky. Cadel however, he has looked dangerous in several attacks and Wiggins has only just shadowed him. Kepp doing that, and have the ITT of his life. But BMC need to at least match Sky's domestiques, or they are asking too much of Evans.

 

[killswitch]

Another problem is Shack are unlikely to do this.

Andy in FW, Papy in Cali, Frank in TdS and Fuglsang in Austria last week did exactly that. Of course without the guidance of the master tactician.

 

[dlwssonic]

There is still some little hope for them. But it is going to be incredibly hard.
wiggins will have to totally crack in the third week and do a bad last TT and lose some time in the mountains.

 

[FignonLeGrand]

Repeated attacks are the only way I see Wiggins or Froome cracking. Both seem to have the ability to cover a big attack or two, but if say Nibali, Evans, VDB and Schleck all have a go on 1 mountain one of those Sky boys has to blow. Force Sky to close all the gaps on the mountains, even if it means letting somebody else get closer to you overall, then you attack Sky when they are bringing whoever up the road back. But its not like that will ever happen because nobody really "teams up" against each other. Everybody will be expecting one crazy attack from some else and it won't happen. Only team that can do that and not really risk anything is RSNT because they have 5 guys pretty high overall that can climb, none which are a risk for the podium.

I agree that all the others need to start having a pop, trobule is who can actually do it. When you review the top 5 or so they are all diesels, no one really has the jump to go again and again and break the sky pair. Evans has a good hill sprint but he doesnt really seem able to sustan that and I would be pretty sure over a few km's they would pull him back, or he wouldnt gain enough time to really challenge. And if sky are committed to winning rather than comitted to wiggins winning if someone does go off the front with a real surge the one who does seem able to cover is Froome. Evans and Nibali need to go on one climb, get a small lead which they extend on the decent before another climb where they can churn up rather than attack. But this takes guts cos if it goes wrong they may end up losing a place and as we have seen in recent years no one has the balls to go for broke anymore. Where is Chiapucci? Maybe they can bring him in for some tactical advice. Such as attack attack if you win great if you lose, well at least you tried.

 

[gustienordic]

I am thinking JVDB will be the one to make things interesting. He had terrible luck the first mtn day and is looking for revenge. Him and JV will try and destroy people

 

[McLovin]

They have a rest day in Pau. Lourdes is just there and it's open 24/7.
Or they can attack starting tomorrow as much as they can.

 

[Armanius]

Looks like Evans and Nibali only have 3 or maybe 4 stages to really make a difference on. Unless of course Wiggins (and Froome) has a meltdown.

 

[Fergoose]

But this takes guts cos if it goes wrong they may end up losing a place and as we have seen in recent years no one has the balls to go for broke anymore.

Except little Andy Schleck last year of course. I hope his big brother puts his money where his mouth is, convinces himself he can do it and strikes for home from miles out. I doubt he's in the necessary condition to do that though but the first stage after a rest day everyone's performance seems to go all over the shop so who knows. Failing that my best hope is VdB, but much as he is one of my favourites he's not exactly renknowned for balls to the wall, high stakes risk taking is he?

I actually think the chances of an attempted banzai attack from far out are very high against all evidence to the contrary.

 

[asdfgh101]

Stage 14: If RSNT along with other leading GC contenders can isolate Wiggins and Froome before dropping them on the final descent they can make up time by working together on the flat.

Before this an attack at the bottom of the Col de la Croix de Fer on stage 11 seems like an opportunity for those with larger GC deficits.

Stage 16 will be key; other teams must apply pressure on the Tourmalet. Large time gaps are possible on this stage.

Stage 17 will be a test of who has recovered best. If Wiggins doesn't crack on Port de Bales he will still be vulnerable to a late attack 15km from the finish.

 

[Apollonius]

Stage 14: If RSNT along with other leading GC contenders can isolate Wiggins and Froome before dropping them on the final descent they can make up time by working together on the flat.

Before this an attack at the bottom of the Col de la Croix de Fer on stage 11 seems like an opportunity for those with larger GC deficits.

Stage 16 will be key; other teams must apply pressure on the Tourmalet. Large time gaps are possible on this stage.

Stage 17 will be a test of who has recovered best. If Wiggins doesn't crack on Port de Bales he will still be vulnerable to a late attack 15km from the finish.

Why would RSNT get involved? They've got no dog in this fight and they certainly wont be overly keen in breaking all of their guys to help Cadel win.
They'll go for stage wins when they can but with Frank out of form they aren't even looking a podiuming.

Also - a lot of you are presuming that Cadel and Nibali have the legs to attack, I put it to you that they don't. One may try a lone man heroic effort but sustained attacks over and over? Nah. Certainly not Cadel anyway, by any stretch of the imagination.

 

[asdfgh101]

RSNT will be riding for the team classification and have riders with GC aspirations. Gallopin is still in the hunt for white, Monfort could place well and i believe that Scleck still harbours ambitions of a top ten finish to go along with a stage win.

Evans and Nibali may not be able to attack from the bottom of a MTF but there are stages where they could put in an acceleration near the summit of a climb before distancing Wiggins and Froome on the descent.

 

[egtalbot]

One of the Sky Boys will almost certainly win - I'd be happier to see it be Froome, but that's not likely.

If we look at the field, no one's going to win by riding a hard tempo up the climb faster than Sky. No one has the team to hurt Sky that way. The only way anyone makes significant inroads is with accelerations at a lot of different points. Steadily hard plays into Sky's hands, so the race needs to be made erratically hard. Attacks on any climb with any kind of bite in it, and constant attempts to get guys from places 5-15 in the overall into breakaways. RSNT obviously has a lot of weapons here, but I'd also be sacrificing TJ for this purpose if I were BMC. Hell, Basso and Szymd should try to get into breakaways.
Most of these will come to naught, but they have to keep trying. Early and Often. You never know if EBH or Porte or Rogers will fold unexpectedly. And this constantly aggressive riding creates more opportunities for things to go wrong - both for Sky and the people doing the attacking to be sure.

In terms of actual acceleration on climbs, JVDB and Schleck may be the only guys who can do it. Neither Cadel or Nibali are explosive in the same way and at best could claw back a few seconds here or there at the end.

All of the above is a tremendous long shot. But the only real alternative is capitulation. I doubt Cadel cares about protecting a podium, and Nibali will not be on the podium unless he has at least a minute on Froome going into the last TT. So it's in their best interests to risk it. But I fear that all out warfare of the sort required now is something you only see in the Classics these days. And that's because some of those courses are so hard that they demand it. The art of teams making a grand tour truly hard in some way other than riding tempo seems gone, and we'll likely just see a few attacks combined with an overdeveloped sense of the effectiveness of fast descents.

May I be proven wrong.

 

[mickymoo82]

Why would RSNT get involved? They've got no dog in this fight and they certainly wont be overly keen in breaking all of their guys to help Cadel win.
They'll go for stage wins when they can but with Frank out of form they aren't even looking a podiuming.

Also - a lot of you are presuming that Cadel and Nibali have the legs to attack, I put it to you that they don't. One may try a lone man heroic effort but sustained attacks over and over? Nah. Certainly not Cadel anyway, by any stretch of the imagination.

Spot On, People seem to be forgetting that neither Evans or Nibali have the explosive kick That Contador has.
The question is why would they work together not if they work together, Evans won't pace someone up a mountain who's a threat to his Podium position and Nibali needs to worry about overhauling Froome before worring about Wiggins.

 

[Parrulo]

nibali's acceleration is certainly underrated by some, he has a decent kick he just can't keep it for a long time unlike contador and andy schleck. but he can do a few changes of rhythm which what actually hurts wiggins and not the accelerations per se.

 

[mickymoo82]

nibali's acceleration is certainly underrated by some, he has a decent kick he just can't keep it for a long time unlike contador and andy schleck. but he can do a few changes of rhythm which what actually hurts wiggins and not the accelerations per se.

Suppose.
Don't get me wrong i think a british rider in a british team winning the tour would be amazing but, I personally would love it if Nibali threw the whole thing up in the air. Just can't see it though.

 

[egtalbot]

nibali's acceleration is certainly underrated by some, he has a decent kick he just can't keep it for a long time unlike contador and andy schleck. but he can do a few changes of rhythm which what actually hurts wiggins and not the accelerations per se.

Agreed, and I actually think the same thing goes for Cadel. They'd need stages with 3-4 short steep climbs in them to even have a prayer of getting anything more than a few seconds. Isolate Froome and Wiggins on the first 1-2, then pray you catch wiggins on a bad day on the last 2. I don't think just Cadel and Nibali trying to hurt Wiggins will work on this parcours, not that they shouldn't try.

JVDB and FS are the only guys left in the field who have ever had the kind of skills needed in this situation. Maybe 1 or 2 others who are even further down. Well, froome actually has them too, if last year's Vuelta is any indication

 

[veganrob]

There is no one team strong enough to hurt Sky at this point. Any teams with GC aspirations will have to work together to break Sky first. Then see who is left for the top spot.
That is my plan.

 

[Kender]

so far in this tour there have only been medium mountains. Look at the damage that's been done to everyone on cat 1 climbs.

The sad thing is, this year there are no MTF HC climbs. the 2 that are left at cat 1. that means you have to attack before the final climbs to have a chance.

Evans and Nibali are going to have to gap wiggins and froome on some climbs and decend without him so he can't just trust them and follow behind. They have to have done enough damage bfore that happens or he just links up with his team mates and they drag him home.


so either we see early attacks and long raids, or we see a demonstration on wheelsucking

 

[Ramira]

Honestly unless Wiggins has an off-day it's going to be hard for Evans and Nibali to win it. I think their only real advantage over Wiggins is their descending abilities. If they can get a small gap just before the top of the last climb either today or next Wednesday and work together towards the finish they might be able to build that into enough time to make this Tour competitive again.

 

[ericthesportsman6]

There is no one team strong enough to hurt Sky at this point. Any teams with GC aspirations will have to work together to break Sky first. Then see who is left for the top spot.
That is my plan.

I think you're overrating the strength of Sky. One strong showing in the mountains does not make them invincible.

 

[greenedge]

True- the loss of Sistsou hurts but they have been doing it all year protecting Wiggins.

The only way to break that train is for them to be attacked.

 

[glassmoon]

finish 2nd, wait a year or two, then take the yellow j. on separate ceremony

 

[mickkk]

Its far from over IMHO. Wiggins doesnt really look comfortable in the climbs. With the big climbs to come, it will be interesting to see if he can ride on his own. Evans just has to be at the front, be attentive and when the time is right, make a break for it and get two minutes, much like last year. Evans TT can only improve.

Its the perfect year for a nobody to win it whilst all this intrigue is going on. Many riders could take yellow over these mountains.

 

[Hammerhed]

finish 2nd, wait a year or two, then take the yellow j. on separate ceremony

That's not a fair comment, and it makes me understand why Wiggo exploded at the press corps yesterday. Though some bloggers think Wiggo missed an opportunity to respond rationally and evenly, like Lance usually did, I liked what he had to say. His response was similar, in tone, to the time Lance pushed that bloke carrying a fake syringe into the snow. That was such a classic, spontaneous move...truly beautiful.