So what do Evans and Nibs have to do to win this?

[datalore]

He has the strength to get away and stay away (With nibali) if he calms down and puts it into two or three decisive moves between here and Paris.

I have my doubts about this. Unless Froome or Wiggo lose form, I think Sky will stay in control through the mountains.

 

[icefire]

1985 Tour: 232 total TT Km
1986 Tour: 180 total TT Km
1987 Tour: 209 total TT Km
1988 Tour: 185 total TT Km
1989 Tour: 189 total TT Km
1990 Tour: 191.3 total TT Km

Even if you subtract the KMs included with the TTT from these totals, every one of the tours during arguably the greatest modern era in terms of the closest results on a yearly basis, you still end up with well over 100 KM of individual TTs.

You might want to check as well the length of the mountain stages and the time gaps in those years. Then compare with the gaps made today in mountain stages and make your own conclusions.

 

[perico]

You might want to check as well the length of the mountain stages and the time gaps in those years. Then compare with the gaps made today in mountain stages and make your own conclusions.

The Tour was a lot longer race in those days to be sure, but they shortened it to try and make it "harder," if memory serves, and have done a disservice in doing so.

 

[MonteZoncolan]

That did not work in the past during the US Postal days. Nobody wants to be the sacrificial lamb in the Tour. There are too many team interests.

Remember for many years many people saying about the alliances to beat the US Postal train but that never happened. There were some sparks but that was it.

True True. It's a tough one.so maybe it will take more than 'Nibbles and Cuddles' to break them yet I can't see the Sky train holding this form when the big sloepes are hit. I dont think there is enough distance on the downhill finishes for an escape to gain much time. So this could be interesting!

 

[ggusta]

the amount of itt isn't the problem, the lack of mountains is.

every GT should have 100k of itt but it should have enough mountains for the pure climbers to go ballistic and try to gain 15 minutes back if needed.

if this tour had 2 more really tough mountain stages with over 200k and several mountains properly chained with as little flat btw them as possible, one stage ending on a MTF and another with a downhill finish, the route would be very good. but that is not the case

I agree. Not enough mountains remain. (Not enough mountains and MTF in the whole thing as far as I am concerned.) The remaining contenders just have to throw the kitchen sink at sky and see what sticks. Trade stages for time. I don't think any of it will work, but at least it will make the race interesting. Otherwise, we'll be treated to watching a mad Aussie bang his head against the wall in an act of supreme futility for the next 2 weeks.

 

[maxmartin]

Even Nibali and Evans work together in certain stage, that will be also short-lived. In the end it could well be Nibali and Evans are fighting for the third place, if Evans' heart is in it.

 

[gingerwallaceafro]

More mountains = more time for Team Sky.

 

[Peccio89]

They have to attack before the final climb, and on near the finish descent.
Everybody can crack if they put pressure on him, even Armstong did when Pantani attacked from far out.

Plus final TT it's not only a matter of attitude but also of level of fuel left in the tank, and Wiggo is flyng since the Dauphine, so who knows, he might got into shape too early.

I don't get why people think this is already over, there are still 4 riders in 2'20'', that is extremely close, and a bad day on the mountains might be more than enough to change everything.

 

[Cervelo77]

Enlist help of a bear.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4WfD7lYkKqA

 

[Fergoose]

[pipedreaming]They need to have a word with other teams like Lotto & RSNT and try to agree to throw together a team of riders like Zubeldia, F. Shleck, TJVG, Vanendert & Basso into an attack on the penultimate (or earlier) climb of a mountain stage. Get a list of names of about 8-12 of these riders (ones within 8mins on GC and others who are proven climbers but further down on GC) and throw them at Sky, two by two (one a good climber, the other high on GC). If Sky use up energy to catch one, throw the next pair forward etc. That’d stand a decent chance of getting Rogers, EBH & Porte out of the way long before the end of the stage.

They’d get a pair away eventually and they’d have to agree to make no effort to track them down, leaving everything to Sky. It then that becomes a potential launch pad for the main guys like Nibali, Menchov & Evans to try and bridge over to. That is the only way to put pressure on the Froome/Wiggins combo and get Sky tearing itself apart about potentially having to give the TdF to Froome which they will be loathed to do.

RSNT have so many riders in half decent positions that they have to surely gamble on using one or two to go on a suicide mission for overall victory? [/pipedreaming]

History shows that this will of course never happen and that all the above will instead squabble over 3rd to 10th places allowing Sky to serenely trundle to Paris untroubled. Le sigh!

 

[patrick767]

At this point they have to hope that one of the following happens:
1. Wiggins and Froome both bonk on a mountain finish.
2. Wiggins and Froome crash.
3. Evans and/or Nibali must make a long, successful, epic attack in the mountains a la Andy Schleck last year when Evans was forced to take it upon himself to limit his losses and save his Tour.
4. Grow wings. No disqualification for flying up the mountains.

 

[aidianajones]

3. Evans and/or Nibali must make a long, successful, epic attack in the mountains a la Andy Schleck last year when Evans was forced to take it upon himself to limit his losses and save his Tour.

This could never work in this years tour, last year no one had any real team mates left to make a real chase. This time however Wiggins will have 3 strong sky boys with him.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

1. Hire a sniper
2. Let him eliminate Wiggins and Froome

 

[cineteq]

At this point they have to hope that one of the following happens:
1. Wiggins and Froome both bonk on a mountain finish.
2. Wiggins and Froome crash.
3. Evans and/or Nibali must make a long, successful, epic attack in the mountains a la Andy Schleck last year when Evans was forced to take it upon himself to limit his losses and save his Tour.
4. Grow wings. No disqualification for flying up the mountains.

Checked. Add VDB and RSNT to the mix to disrupt Sky's train.

 

[Warhawk]

They could congratulate Wiggins and Froome on their TT success by treating Sky to a bunch of steaks of questionable origin.

 

[Dr.Sahl]

1. Hire a sniper
2. Let him eliminate Wiggins and Froome

Its cheaper to just get a spectator on the road to jump infront of them... I bet some would worship him as a god.. (not me) I want wiggins to win now and then get nailed for doping in 10 years

 

[Falken]

One problem for Evans and Nibali is that their domestiques in the mountains probably can't really help them to launch an attack. Tejay doesn't seem strong enough, Basso hasn't looked good so far and neither has Smyzd. I think however that Lotto Belisol with JVDB and Vanendert and RSNT with Fränk and Horner could attack, and I can see Evans and Nibali taking advantage of this and then counterattack - maybe putting Wiggo in the red zone. Worse thing that can happen is if Sky is aloud to control the pace in the mountains, because Wiggo can hold a high and steady pace, it is the sudden pace changes that can shake him I believe.

The descents will of course be important for Evans and Nibali.

 

[Armanius]

They could congratulate Wiggins and Froome on their TT success by treating Sky to a bunch of steaks of questionable origin.

Only the best -- from Spain!

 

[msjett]

I think Froome is the key here. If the other contenders can get him away from Wiggins, they have a slim chance of putting Wiggins into difficulty. Nibali and Evans aren't the only ones with nothing to lose anymore.

 

[Frosty]

Make full use of the multiple mountain stages - its the only way they can hope to get the time back. People talk about the Sky train but someone needs to up the pace early in a stage to get rid of EBH and Knees early on and put Porte and Rogers in trouble too (not saying it will happen but they have to try). Then, with just Froome and Wiggins left, the likes of team leaders can attack and try to drop the Sky duo. Be interesting to see what happens if Wiggo does drop while Froome is able to follow.

For instance, on stage 11 you have your lesser domestiques setting a good pace up the Madeleine. Then those guys give a big burst at the bottom of the Croix de Fer before dropping off allowing the top domestique(s) to set a punishing pace. Then, when he is done, say, half-way up, the team leader has to attack. Stage 12 has hardly any flat roads at all so there isnt much opportunity for regrouping.

 

[42x16ss]

Make full use of the multiple mountain stages - its the only way they can hope to get the time back. People talk about the Sky train but someone needs to up the pace early in a stage to get rid of EBH and Knees early on and put Porte and Rogers in trouble too (not saying it will happen but they have to try). Then, with just Froome and Wiggins left, the likes of team leaders can attack and try to drop the Sky duo. Be interesting to see what happens if Wiggo does drop while Froome is able to follow.

For instance, on stage 11 you have your lesser domestiques setting a good pace up the Madeleine. Then those guys give a big burst at the bottom of the Croix de Fer before dropping off allowing the top domestique(s) to set a punishing pace. Then, when he is done, say, half-way up, the team leader has to attack. Stage 12 has hardly any flat roads at all so there isnt much opportunity for regrouping.

This has to happen. I'm still not convinced that Wiggins can handle all-out warfare on multiple HC climbs, the only issue - will anyone risk it all?

If everyone leaves this race as a Sky procession then we may as well award the final yellow jersey to SRM now.

 

[Forunculo]

They should do basically this

 

[Fetisoff]

They should do basically this

LOL. Good one

 

[rata de sentina]

I expect that some of the contenders who are good climbers and have lost some time will likely go on the attack in the mountains to (1) win a stage and (2) claw back some time. Week two is too early for people to be protecting their top 10 GC positions more likely they will get more conservative in week 3. People with ambition will still have a go.

Evans and even Nibali need to let them go and hopefully bridge up to them at the right time. Seems to me this is the best way for them to get big time on W. Might not work on Froome though.

 

[rhubroma]

Contact a voodoo specialist. Have supporters throw nails in front of Sky's wheels. Make sacrifices to Spes and Nike. Call up Ferrari now. Have Nibali hire a Sicilian mobster to do the dirty work.