So what do Evans and Nibs have to do to win this?

[Parrulo]

Evans and Ninabli have to pray that Wiggins has a horrible day like Evans had back in 2010 after putting on the yellow. Bad day for Wiggins is not enough, it has to be a horrible day. On the other hand, maybe Wiggins will be tired by the third week, and he won't be able to crush the opposition in the last ITT.

BTW, where did Froome come from? I only started watching pro cycling in 2009, and didn't hear much about him until the Vuelta last year. The way he's riding, it sure seems like he should be leading another team as a GC contender instead of pulling Wiggins.

nowhere, literally out of nowhere!!! no results previous to last years vuelta. . . .

 

[Havetts]

Dig in their suitcase of clinic-products.

 

[Thee_chisa]

Evans and Ninabli have to pray that Wiggins has a horrible day like Evans had back in 2010 after putting on the yellow. Bad day for Wiggins is not enough, it has to be a horrible day. On the other hand, maybe Wiggins will be tired by the third week, and he won't be able to crush the opposition in the last ITT.

BTW, where did Froome come from? I only started watching pro cycling in 2009, and didn't hear much about him until the Vuelta last year. The way he's riding, it sure seems like he should be leading another team as a GC contender instead of pulling Wiggins.

froome has been around a while. born in kenya, lived in SA, took UK nationality due to his family origins. he started with barloworld and rode his first tour in 2007? i think. always been a good rider, suffered from bilharzia which has dogged his performances and consistency. finally got well last year and had a great vuelta. signed a big contract with sky at the end of last year. will probably ride as leader in vuelta and giro,

 

[Thee_chisa]

This is why I can't stand having over 100km of ITT's in a race. And yes, with the prologue it's over 100km. It's over after the first bloody week. 35-40km of ITT's in one race is good enough to show us that aspect of cycling. Why they need over 100km of it is just crazy!

Anyway, there's my rant. It's Wiggins to lose now, not Evans or Nibalis to win. For a competitive finish, all we can hope for is Wiggins cracks, crashes, or just plain has a bad last ITT. If he doesn't do any of those, it's done.

I agree with other people that Evans and Nibali better start forming an alliance here. I also think VDB is going to come out hard as well. It would be good to align with him.

look back to some of the giros and tours of the 80-90s. they had 100k ITTs in them! this short ITT thing is relatively modern and tends to suit the climbers for overall victory

 

[Parrulo]

clinic related posts will lead to a 24 hour ban, so i advice people to avoid them from now on.

 

[Big Doopie]

This is why I can't stand having over 100km of ITT's in a race. And yes, with the prologue it's over 100km. It's over after the first bloody week. 35-40km of ITT's in one race is good enough to show us that aspect of cycling. Why they need over 100km of it is just crazy!

in the history of the race, 100k is really not extraordinary at all. it's only in recent years that this has been cut dramatically. one could argue that in recent years the tour has been weighted against TT-ers and for pure climbers when the race is supposed to crown the best all-rounder. for instance, in almost any other age schlecklet would not even be considered a contender. van impe could actually time trial pretty well but it took a tour with 4-5 MTFs for him to win.

i think the 100 k is reasonable -- particularly when the time diffs they create are much less than in the age of anquetil, merckx and hinault.

the tour is really not supposed to crown the best little climber.

 

[Armanius]

Thanks for the tidbits about Froome. He looks awesome so far, and seemed like he could have taken 20-30 seconds from everyone else in stage 7, including Wiggins. I wonder if he's holding back ...

An alliance between Evans and Nibali might work. Specially given that TJ hasn't done anything to help Evans so far, even though Phil and Paul keep harping about TJ helping Evans in the mountains.

 

[rghysens]

BTW, where did Froome come from? I only started watching pro cycling in 2009, and didn't hear much about him until the Vuelta last year. The way he's riding, it sure seems like he should be leading another team as a GC contender instead of pulling Wiggins.

You mean, like Leipheimer, Landis or Vaughters should have done while they were riding in Armstrong's service.

Oh, wait....

 

[Hawkwood]

look back to some of the giros and tours of the 80-90s. they had 100k ITTs in them! this short ITT thing is relatively modern and tends to suit the climbers for overall victory

+1
The ITT Indurain won in 1994 leading to his nickname `extraterrestial' was 64kms long.

 

[Escarabajo]

I think they'd need to form an alliance in the alps first and see how that works. it maybe that they can pinch some time as i think there are a couple more downhill finishes that are suitable for a break over the last crest. Problem being the final TT. might be back to square one. I'd like to see Evans/Nibali counter punching up the mountains as I think they can wear those Brits out.

That did not work in the past during the US Postal days. Nobody wants to be the sacrificial lamb in the Tour. There are too many team interests.

Remember for many years many people saying about the alliances to beat the US Postal train but that never happened. There were some sparks but that was it.

 

[perico]

look back to some of the giros and tours of the 80-90s. they had 100k ITTs in them! this short ITT thing is relatively modern and tends to suit the climbers for overall victory

Very true. In 1987, they had an 88 Kilometer TT in the middle of the race, which cost Andy Hampsten about 5 minutes on the leaders.

 

[Armanius]

You mean, like Leipheimer, Landis or Vaughters should have done while they were riding in Armstrong's service.

Oh, wait....

Eh ... not sure where you are going with this.

 

[Warhawk]

Thanks for the tidbits about Froome. He looks awesome so far, and seemed like he could have taken 20-30 seconds from everyone else in stage 7, including Wiggins. I wonder if he's holding back ...

An alliance between Evans and Nibali might work. Specially given that TJ hasn't done anything to help Evans so far, even though Phil and Paul keep harping about TJ helping Evans in the mountains.

Well, Tejay blew on the finish the day before yesterday (then again, so did half the people we thought would do well - that climb was a bit of a massacre).

He did very nearly stick with the lead group yesterday, though. One of the last guys (if not the last guy) dropped on the final climb.

As a side note, he doesn't have to do all that much for Evans if Sky want to keep doing what they did the day before yesterday on the final climb. Given the strength of the Sky team, makes more sense for Evans and Tejay to wait it out and look for the right opportunities than for Evans to ask Tejay to try to take control of the lead group on a climb.

 

[perico]

In fact, the 1987 Tour had 209 kilometers of time trialing, 41 of which were for the TTT.

So, there was 168 KMs of individual TTing in what is arguably one of the greatest tours in modern history.

 

[H2OUUP2]

the tour is really not supposed to crown the best little climber.

I don't think it is either. I may have come across like that but it's not what I meant. I don't want 10 MTF's.
I think having 50km (I know I said 40ish) of it is good enough. It gives us that aspect. I would actually like one 40-50km ITT, and one TTT. That would make more sense to me then over 100km of ITT. I like the variety. Gimme more downhill finishes as well.

And to everyone talking about the 94, and 87 races, I only started watching cycling in the year 2000. I do recall there being this amount of ITT, but I still don't like it.

 

[Thee_chisa]

Well, Tejay blew on the finish the day before yesterday.

He did very nearly stick with the lead group yesterday, though. One of the last guys (if not the last guy) dropped on the final climb.

As a side note, he doesn't have to do all that much for Evans if Sky want to keep doing what they did the day before yesterday on the final climb. Given the strength of the Sky team, makes more sense for Evans and Tejay to wait it out and look for the right opportunities than for Evans to ask Tejay to try to take control of the lead group on a climb.

evans' problem is that TJ is thinking about the white jersey. he is saving himself on climbs. he needs to lead evans out on climbs and lose 5min+ by blowing up. he however, wants the white jersey and probably won't do this

 

[NapoleonD]

I think that this situation may lead to more exciting mountain stages in my opinion as the other contenders will be forced to do more risky attacks...

 

[maxmartin]

in the history of the race, 100k is really not extraordinary at all. it's only in recent years that this has been cut dramatically. one could argue that in recent years the tour has been weighted against TT-ers and for pure climbers when the race is supposed to crown the best all-rounder. for instance, in almost any other age schlecklet would not even be considered a contender. van impe could actually time trial pretty well but it took a tour with 4-5 MTFs for him to win.

i think the 100 k is reasonable -- particularly when the time diffs they create are much less than in the age of anquetil, merckx and hinault.

the tour is really not supposed to crown the best little climber.

funny if you watch the race, you know W and F are still the best 1 2, climber in this tour.

 

[vcampbell]

Pray.

And then hope the Pope answers their prayers - by falling over going uphill on the next stage and, whilst miraculously being unhurt himself, causing Wiggo and Froome to crash heavily and both suffer matching broken collarbones...

Oh yes, between the hatred no one says a word about wishing riders broken bones (and I don't care if it's a joke or not). Seems like people here are going full *** because of Wiggins and Froome.

 

[Big Doopie]

evans' problem is that TJ is thinking about the white jersey. he is saving himself on climbs. he needs to lead evans out on climbs and lose 5min+ by blowing up.

huh?

why would tj lead evans out when the sky train is doing it better?

 

[Warhawk]

evans' problem is that TJ is thinking about the white jersey. he is saving himself on climbs. he needs to lead evans out on climbs and lose 5min+ by blowing up. he however, wants the white jersey and probably won't do this

Problem is that that doesn't help much if Sky is as strong as they are. Tejay blew too early the day before yesterday. What good would leading Evans out be when there were still 4 or 5 Sky guys driving the group on that climb?

Sure, if Tejay had hung in there until the end he could have helped, but by then there were only 4 guys left anyway, and everyone knows Tejay isn't a top 5 climber in this Tour.

Even if he had hung on as long as Taaramae I'm not sure there's much he could have done.

 

[Thee_chisa]

Problem is that that doesn't help much if Sky is as strong as they are. Tejay blew too early the day before yesterday. What good would leading Evans out be when there were still 4 or 5 Sky guys driving the group on that climb?

Sure, if Tejay had hung in there until the end he could have helped, but by then there were only 4 guys left anyway, and everyone knows Tejay isn't a top 5 climber in this Tour.

Even if he had hung on as long as Taaramae I'm not sure there's much he could have done.

he needs to pull hard at the bottom of a climb to put sky out of their comfort zone. then sky either have to chase and risk losing all their men or let a gap develop - which evans could develop further. as far as i have seen TJ seems to be riding for himself

 

[perico]

1985 Tour: 232 total TT Km
1986 Tour: 180 total TT Km
1987 Tour: 209 total TT Km
1988 Tour: 185 total TT Km
1989 Tour: 189 total TT Km
1990 Tour: 191.3 total TT Km

Even if you subtract the KMs included with the TTT from these totals, every one of the tours during arguably the greatest modern era in terms of the closest results on a yearly basis, you still end up with well over 100 KM of individual TTs.

 

[Froome19]

Attack on the Croix de Fer and Port de Bailles as simple as that. They need to take over 4 minutes and that wont be achieved on the stages finishing on a descent.

 

[Parrulo]

the amount of itt isn't the problem, the lack of mountains is.

every GT should have 100k of itt but it should have enough mountains for the pure climbers to go ballistic and try to gain 15 minutes back if needed.

if this tour had 2 more really tough mountain stages with over 200k and several mountains properly chained with as little flat btw them as possible, one stage ending on a MTF and another with a downhill finish, the route would be very good. but that is not the case