So what do Evans and Nibs have to do to win this?

[Kender]

either evans or nibali will have to sacrifice their chances in order for the other to win.

1 attacks repeatedly forcing sky to respond until either they or sky pop. then the other attacks and hopefully breaks sky. Otherwise froome and wiggins will wheelsuck (they don't need to do anything else to win) their way to paris

 

[Zam_Olyas]

Contact a voodoo specialist. Have supporters throw nails in front of Sky's wheels. Make sacrifices to Spes and Nike. Call up Ferrari now. Have Nibali hire a Sicilian mobster to do the dirty work.

Gianni "u picciutteddu" will know someone good

 

[BillytheKid]

Take advantage of RSNT's attempt to reek havoc in the mountains....then hope a freak snow storm cancels the last ITT.

 

[Warhawk]

Have Nibali hire a Sicilian mobster to do the dirty work.

Won't work. Whoever you hire, Christian Knees will pound them into a fine paste.

An the aforementioned bear attack plan won't work either. Same reason.

He is very large. And very German.

 

[movingtarget]

The old Evans would try to defend his podium position. They have to take risks and hope they can get help from riders like VDB. The last TT is the big hurdle. Olny two mtfs to go and the last one is not steep.

 

[42x16ss]

Somebody needs to go '03 Mayo/Vino on this race

 

[Publicus]

I think they have to try to continual try to get men into the break to force Sky to have to chase as much as possible over the next few stages. And once the break is established, they have to attack on EACH climb. Make Sky react; keep them off balance. Crank up the pace when Sky is in some kind of lull, distributing food, etc. Sitting back and waiting for the last mountain of each stage, with that last long ITT looming, is pure fools gold. Frankly, I'm surprised that neither were more opportunistic during the first week. Now they have to be. Also, before I forget, make Sky chase all attacks. If Nibbles attacks, don't follow, wait for Sky to react. When they cover, then someone else attack. Rinse repeat. They want a steady rhythm. Don't let them have it. EVER.

All that being said, I don't think any of the other "contenders" (and I use that term lightly) will look beyond their own self-interest and will look to consolidate their position (Cuddles) or only aim for podium (Nibali et al). This is why I miss AC. I know he would attack and attack and look for time wherever he could. I don't have that sense of any of the other remaining "contenders." Hopefully I'm wrong (Nibali never gave up in the 2011 Giro, nor Scarponi, hopefully they remember that).

 

[RedZone]

RSNT surely hold the key to any chance of Sky not winning. They have enough strongish climbers who are thereabouts on GC to throw around. On a stage like tomorrows, simply try to throw them up the road 1 by 1 and make Sky chase on their own. If they can Isolate Friggins early then maybe some big contenders will be able to crack them and gain some decent time.

Problem is, as was evident on stage 7 & 8. Wiggins and Froome seem to be 2 of the best 4 climbers in this years race. Another problem is Shack are unlikely to do this.

 

[UpTheRoad]

Nibali and Evans need other contenders to attack early and make Sky do every bit of work to chase them down. Problem is that guys like Menchov. VDB will, but somebody other than the Sky mountain train will bring him back. The RSNT boys are too far down to do anything other than hunt for a stage (I am assuming that neither Zubeldia nor Monfort will be the road leaders even now).

The odds are very long at this point, especially since neither Wiggins nor Froome looks like they have been put into difficulty.

I don't think either Nibali or Evans have enough of a jump to even get a gap and keep it, or at least make the Sky kill themselves chasing.

 

[Tigerion]

All that being said, I don't think any of the other "contenders" (and I use that term lightly) will look beyond their own self-interest and will look to consolidate their position (Cuddles) or only aim for podium (Nibali et al). This is why I miss AC. I know he would attack and attack and look for time wherever he could. I don't have that sense of any of the other remaining "contenders." Hopefully I'm wrong (Nibali never gave up in the 2011 Giro, nor Scarponi, hopefully they remember that).

Maybe that's a change the UCI need to make with the points system. If they want people to worry about points (see Fulsang situation) then make people chase victory.
1st - 200 points
2nd onwards the same as a classic

Make the reward for victory worth losing half a dozen places on GC.

 

[MizzouJack]

I think the Nibali's team is the key, if Szmyd can do his thing and then hand off to the great return of ROBOBASSO, then maybe they can brake Wiggo even though he likes a constant pace. In other words besides a De Gendt like stage (which never happens in the Tour) it will be extremely difficult.

 

[patrick767]

This has to happen. I'm still not convinced that Wiggins can handle all-out warfare on multiple HC climbs, the only issue - will anyone risk it all?

If everyone leaves this race as a Sky procession then we may as well award the final yellow jersey to SRM now.

We'll see. It's what has to happen, but of course a big, early attack is a huge risk. Andy got away with it last year. It just wasn't quite enough. Wiggins's team is stronger. It's going to be that much tougher to pull off. Cadel has to be at least as good as when he took over the pursuit of Andy Schleck last year, but he has to be the one who attacked in the first place too. It's a tall order.

Let's see if Wiggins is still so strong in week three though.

 

[Unkown]

Repeated attacks are the only way I see Wiggins or Froome cracking. Both seem to have the ability to cover a big attack or two, but if say Nibali, Evans, VDB and Schleck all have a go on 1 mountain one of those Sky boys has to blow. Force Sky to close all the gaps on the mountains, even if it means letting somebody else get closer to you overall, then you attack Sky when they are bringing whoever up the road back. But its not like that will ever happen because nobody really "teams up" against each other. Everybody will be expecting one crazy attack from some else and it won't happen. Only team that can do that and not really risk anything is RSNT because they have 5 guys pretty high overall that can climb, none which are a risk for the podium.

 

[hughmoore]

Maybe that's a change the UCI need to make with the points system. If they want people to worry about points (see Fulsang situation) then make people chase victory.
1st - 200 points
2nd onwards the same as a classic

Make the reward for victory worth losing half a dozen places on GC.

Why not make the points very similar, so doesnt matter whether you finish 1st or 7th in GT.

That way, you can go for glory without your team boss worrying about points?

Im hoping Evans goes for Glory, happy to have him miss the podium to go for it!!!

Hugh

 

[rata de sentina]

Problem is, as was evident on stage 7 & 8. Wiggins and Froome seem to be 2 of the best 4 climbers in this years race. Another problem is Shack are unlikely to do this.

It is far too early to say that, both those stages were challenging but not real mountain stages. Some people take a while to warm up to the climbing. There are always those who get better and there are always those who get worse.

 

[auscyclefan94]

They could congratulate Wiggins and Froome on their TT success by treating Sky to a bunch of steaks of questionable origin.

The odds of that are not very high!

 

[the asian]

This thread should be moved to the clinic. We can express our ideas better then.
On the non clinic matters, what Nibali and Evans can do is, to make sure Wiggins and Froome crash.
There aren't enough tough mountain stages for them to get back time and with another ITT to come, most probably SKY will get 1 & 2.

 

[pablo0642]

On the non clinic matters, what Nibali and Evans can do is, to make sure Wiggins and Froome crash.
There aren't enough tough mountain stages for them to get back time and with another ITT to come, most probably SKY will get 1 & 2.

Yes it looks likely that Sky will retain yellow into Paris but that doesn't mean that the others should give it up and 'making them crash' is very unsporting. 2nd/3rd aren't worth fighting for if you're not an up and coming rider and I'm sure Cadel would rather end up finishing 5 or 6th for the chance of winning than ride conservatively to ensure he holds onto 2nd. The big question for me is whether enough of the other 'contenders' (lets face it pre race Cadel and Brad were overwhelming favourites) feel the same way. Cadel can't rely on his team so it all depends on whether Nibbles and Jurgen vanDB can organise their attacks to weaken Sky. If nothing can be agreed before hand (which seems unlikely - although I haven't followed cycling for long?) then surely its better for Cadel (and others) to risk blowing up by attacking around half way up the Colombier (or even get in an earlier break?) and seeing if they can hold onto around a minute by the finish? I questioned during the 2011 tour why BMC picked such a weak climbing team and I thought the same this year as I'd have thought Cadel could have been protected by no more than 2 or 3 riders on the flat while the remaining should have been mountain goats. Other teams manage without a 5 man praetorian guard and its not like Cadel looks like he's made of porcelain. Given that the tour was always BMCs main goal this year I don't know why they didn't sign more climbers alongside/instead of Thor?

Anyway does anyone seriously think that Cadel et al can use their rest day to organise an interteam gang up on Sky?

 

[RedZone]

It is far too early to say that, both those stages were challenging but not real mountain stages. Some people take a while to warm up to the climbing. There are always those who get better and there are always those who get worse.

Too early to say they appear to be the strongest? OK, but thanks either way for your incredible Tomalaresque cycling analysis. The people who have 'taken a while to warm up to the climbing' are already 3-10 minutes down... with a 50k flat TT to come. They better get a whole lot better to take that much time out of 2 guys who appear to be climbing well.

 

[Simply The Best]

Well surely cadel has to go for it at this stage of his career he's had multiple GT podiums top5's, top10's so it should really be all or nothing as with his age you would think this would be his last chance for a GT victory

 

[Hammerhed]

To me, even before the race began, it seemed obvious that it would have only two genuine contenders, Evans and Wiggins. Now, sadly, it seems that the two contenders are Wiggins and Froome, a situation, unlikely as it may be, which could be vastly entertaining! However, I have the feeling, warranted or not, that the race is all over but the shouting. I hope not though.

 

[VO2 Max]

To win the race? Simple enough, they need to be prepared to lose. Put people in breaks, go out early and attack themselves two or three mountains out - attack on the Madeleine and Tourmalet and try to separate Froome/Wiggins from EBH/Porte/Rogers before the finale of stages.

The trouble is that Evans will probably be prepared to do this because he's been there before and has the palmares such that only a win is interesting to him, but he doesn't seem to have the weapons in his team. Nibali on the other hand does have the weapons in Basso and Szmyd but conversely would probably see a TdF podium as a huge addition to his cv so will probably defend what he has to an extent.

Rabobank or Lotto could be the king-makers here if I'm clutching at straws for where the excitement is going to come from.

 

[jmspinto]

.

The only way they would have to do something is to work ... as a team, because on a one man vs Froome and Wiggins it will be impossible, anyway I think this TdF suits the Sky guys very well as it isn´t hard enough!

 

[gingerwallaceafro]

To win the race? Simple enough, they need to be prepared to lose. Put people in breaks, go out early and attack themselves two or three mountains out - attack on the Madeleine and Tourmalet and try to separate Froome/Wiggins from EBH/Porte/Rogers before the finale of stages.

The trouble is that Evans will probably be prepared to do this because he's been there before and has the palmares such that only a win is interesting to him, but he doesn't seem to have the weapons in his team. Nibali on the other hand does have the weapons in Basso and Szmyd but conversely would probably see a TdF podium as a huge addition to his cv so will probably defend what he has to an extent.

Rabobank or Lotto could be the king-makers here if I'm clutching at straws for where the excitement is going to come from.

Agreed, I think riders will be fixated on getting a podium place and will be unwilling to push the button.

 

[Nick C.]

If they don't go (Nibali, Evans, VDB, Menchov RSNT) on Grand Columbier tomorrow then it's another day gone by with no reduction in Wiggins' lead. When Vannedert went to the front on Sunday Sky disappeared save for Wiggins and Froome. That could have been just strategic or a fluke. If they just let Sky ride Tempo up the mountains and hope to attack in the final two K or on the descent it seems as though barring a crash or collapse the Tour is over.