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Stage 16: Ponte Di Legno-Val Martello/Martelltal (139 km)

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Escarabajo said:
Duarte will go as well. Duarte will take the stage.

That would be great, but it would be against the pattern that Duarte has shown at this Giro until now. He sucks big time at the first mountain stage (Montecopiolo/Oropa), then is brilliant the next day (Sestola/Montecampione). Maybe the altitude will help to break that pattern.
 
Red Rick said:
Stage is too short, they could've put the Mortirolo before that if i have my geography right

I'm all for (very) long stages, but in this case it would have been better to make it even shorter: the finish should be in Sulden. There would be no stupid flat section after Stelvio, the race would be on on Stelvio, if not Gavia.
 
Aug 3, 2009
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Would be nice to see some fireworks from the Stelvio on. So far (besides Rolland) the GC contenders race pretty tame and measured with late(ish) attacks and pretty small time gaps considering the time they have to get back from Uran if they want to win.
 
i hope the weather will let them race.

eurosport seems that at best they won't even catch the start of stelvio in bormio. what a disgrace!
what about rai? will they enter liver earlier? i understood no gavia live. then why the hell they designed the stage so beatiful if no one can see it? i think this is coombians terrain. i think duarte and quintana will attack on stelvio for sure.
 
jens_attacks said:
i hope the weather will let them race.

eurosport seems that at best they won't even catch the start of stelvio in bormio. what a disgrace!
what about rai? will they enter liver earlier? i understood no gavia live. then why the hell they designed the stage so beatiful if no one can see it? i think this is coombians terrain. i think duarte and quintana will attack on stelvio for sure.

Can't see a attack from Stelvio stick with 21 km of flat after it before the last mountain. Uran will porbably have Poels and brambilla with him over the top. Evans with Sanchez and Morabito will also probably help chasing a attack from Quintana... :(

But then again. If we get a couple of movistar riders in the breakaway we might see fireworks :D
 
Aug 4, 2010
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I think someone from breakaway will take it,probably guy between 15-30th place in GC.
As of real contenders,I think nobody can outclimb Nairo here (without punctures,injuries etc.) as this is almost! like in what conditions he trains - altitude,long climbs and almost temprature.IMO he will attack about 15-10 km to go,almost on the bottom of Martello.I dont think he will attack on Stelvio,that valley is crazy and with bad weather to risk that descent is not a good idea.Instead of that Movistar should go betserk on both Gavia and Stelvio - he need one rider for valley,so spend 7 riders on those climbs ;)
Maybe one of Majka/Pozzovivo (with help of team),Rolland,Hesjedal,Kiserlovski,Arredondo will attack on Stelvio tho;)

Should be a great day,and I have a freakin exam lol,so no cycling for me tomorrow (at least after 16.00 :D)
 
Vino attacks everyone said:
Can't see a attack from Stelvio stick with 21 km of flat after it before the last mountain. Uran will porbably have Poels and brambilla with him over the top. Evans with Sanchez and Morabito will also probably help chasing a attack from Quintana... :(

But then again. If we get a couple of movistar riders in the breakaway we might see fireworks :D

Tour2011-Modane-Alpe-dHuez.gif


It's a short stage, and while I don't anticipate the kind of moves with 90km left that we saw that day (that was last chance saloon for climbers, this comes with a week of tough mountain stages still to come), that does maximise the opportunities for early moves as people will still be relatively fresh on the early climbs. The break ought to be a really keenly contested one. Pirazzi and Arredondo will be there; Arredondo lost several minutes on Montecampione in the end so I suspect he dropped a bit of time to have more freedom to break in this stage. He's over an hour down so I don't see why anybody would put him on a leash at this point in time.

Now, the guys we need to see in the break are people like Vuillermoz, Rabottini, Duarte and José Herrada. Dupont or Vuillermoz for Pozzovivo. People who are too close for comfort as they are strong climbers, or who can act as a platform for Urán's GC opponents. I think Morabito is too close in GC to get allowed out, but the likes of Dupont and Herrada might be able to escape.
 
Libertine Seguros said:
Tour2011-Modane-Alpe-dHuez.gif


It's a short stage, and while I don't anticipate the kind of moves with 90km left that we saw that day (that was last chance saloon for climbers, this comes with a week of tough mountain stages still to come), that does maximise the opportunities for early moves as people will still be relatively fresh on the early climbs. The break ought to be a really keenly contested one. Pirazzi and Arredondo will be there; Arredondo lost several minutes on Montecampione in the end so I suspect he dropped a bit of time to have more freedom to break in this stage. He's over an hour down so I don't see why anybody would put him on a leash at this point in time.

Now, the guys we need to see in the break are people like Vuillermoz, Rabottini, Duarte and José Herrada. Dupont or Vuillermoz for Pozzovivo. People who are too close for comfort as they are strong climbers, or who can act as a platform for Urán's GC opponents. I think Morabito is too close in GC to get allowed out, but the likes of Dupont and Herrada might be able to escape.
If it wasn't for Alberto, everyone in the GC would've ridden ̶o̶v̶e̶r̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶t̶o̶p̶ through the tunnel of Galibier together.
 
Afrank said:
What to expect:
Everything can happen here, including nothing at all. The most likely outcome is GC guys staring at each other until the last 7 km of Val Martello.
There was a stage on 2011 tirreno on pcm that went over a mountain 100k before the finish, and then 3 or 4 hills that weren't that'd bad.


Everytime I did it the entire peloton pretty much was In tact over both the mountain and the first few hills. A waste right?
But appearances can be deceptive. All the energy bars for the riders were near 0 and after that, 1 attack would crack everyone.

Moving back to real life that's how I see this stage.

Even if nothing happens they are doing 2 brutal climbs that go to 2 very high altitudes and following some of the nice weather they had there may be a temperature shock on the body.

So even if the riders ride slowly and in tact up Gavia and stelvio, appearances can be deceptive, the two mountains can have an effect and cause carnage on vm. And even if vm is pathetic as well (as alpe pampeago was) moving forward the effects of this stage could still knock some people out.

A real life example maybe would be the stage of the vuelta last year where Nibali for the first time looked like he would lose, when it seemed with a few k to go he was fine, but they had done a lot of high mountain that day and weekend, and he tanked a lot for what was not that hard a finale.


Ps, the words "a year in the waiting" should have been somewhere in the stage intro ;)
 
Pantani_lives said:
The GC contenders probably won't attack on the Stelvio because of the 46K valley that comes afterwards.
With a strong team you can do it.

Send 2 team-mates to a breakaway and ensure they're where they need to be to help you on that flat section.

Then use other team-mates to make a high pace at some point of the Stelvio, to ensure other contenders don't have too much domestiques for that flat section. Attack and join your team-mates on the descend.

Movistar has a good team to do so. Imagine Quintana having someone like Amador and Castroviejo to help him on the flat. Could work.
 
Apr 15, 2013
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Red Rick said:
Stage is too short, they could've put the Mortirolo before that if i have my geography right

The mountains will take enough of a toll so best to keep the action short and sweet. I could add additional arguments in another part of the forum.
 
CycloAndy said:
The mountains will take enough of a toll so best to keep the action short and sweet. I could add additional arguments in another part of the forum.

If you are trying to suggest that long stages cause clinic, then I will give you the most common rebuttal.

- is the 100m clean?

No?

Then why does it make a difference how tough the stage is?

It doesn't.

Athletes aim to win. The severity of the event does not make any difference, at the professional level, on the willingness or propensity to go beyond the rules.


And btw it is well known that stage lenght is very important. Even if they just stuck on 50k of flat at the beginning it would make this a totally different stage. Eg Mont Ventoux which had no climbs but was 200k before the climb and that crushed people.

Gardeccia was only slightly harder than this, but almost 100km longer and as a result gc riders were attacking 50k out.

When this stage first came out in 2012 (for 2013) the sole criticism (otherwise, its a great stage) was that its way too short. Which greatly increases the likelyhood that they really do just soft pedal up the Gavia and Stelvio.
 

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