Stage 16: Ponte Di Legno-Val Martello/Martelltal (139 km)

[ILovecycling]

We should organize fan commentary sometime, would be awesome.

hell yeah,I think there was something with eurosport,about amateur commentating and then sending them or something like this...

Any of you guys participated?

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Herrada has done near to nothing as far as we have seen, while Sanchez has done some decent pulling, although he is clearly outdomestiqued by Morabito. Herrada being higher up in the GC just means Sanchez has taken it easy to the finish once his job was done. Like the whole team of Movistar (even including Quintana one could say) Herrada has been underwhelming and nearly invisible.

Also can't see why Herrada in the break would force OPQS to chase hard? Other teams like Cannondale, Garmin, Europcar et all will start to chase because their coveted top 10 place is in danger.

Szmyd isn't in this race and all Anton has done so far is hanging on to the bunch until blowing up, having doing absolutely nothing to help Quintana, besides probably handing him a bottle or two.

Maybe you're right about the top 10 position, but a rider top 20 on GC has to be climbing pretty well, and as a guy who'd be there to domestique for Quintana they wouldn't want to risk him having somebody to work with if he gets away from Urán.

Antón is inconsistent as all hell and has been pretty useless so far, but he's still an extremely strong climber on form, and even off form he's decent enough to provide assistance. If Quintana attacks and has guys like Amador or Antón in front of him, he can use them as helpers for a while, whereas if it was Fran Ventoso and Malori he probably couldn't. Hence OPQS would be more concerned about the former guys getting into the break than the latter. They don't want too many strong guys from Ag2r, Movistar or Astana getting into the break. BMC probably as well, though Urán has generally been stronger than Evans on the mountains so far. Generally.

 

[Kwibus]

Good to hear the stge is on, but I'm definately not sure it will be raced yet. Weather forecast is just so bad. Let's hope it will be raced.

Maybe we won't see much of the race, but that's better then just a flat stage with an mtf. Ofcourse safety first.

 

[Frosty]

Not sure if anyone has shown the link yet but below is the live Stelvio webcam.

http://www.stelvio.net/english/webcam/stelvio---passo-stelvio---webcam_57.html

 

[Pantani_lives]

If Aru and Quintana continue taking back about half a minute on each MTF, and Uran does well in the time trial, Uran will win the Giro. If they want to beat him they will have to do something else than attacking 4K before the finish. Tomorrow might be the best chance to try a big coup, but somehow I don't think this will happen, even if they keep the course.

 

[Eclipse]

Not sure if anyone has shown the link yet but below is the live Stelvio webcam.

http://www.stelvio.net/english/webcam/stelvio---passo-stelvio---webcam_57.html

Goodness me is that finally some late evening sunshine after dreary grey rain most of the day? How lovely.

 

[Frosty]

Goodness me is that finally some late evening sunshine after dreary grey rain most of the day? How lovely.

No sun there at the moment - the photo at the top is just a general photo, you have to scroll down a bit to see the latest photo.

 

[Anderis]

All the other leaders have no support (Kelderman, Rolland, Hesjedal, Basso, Pellizotti) or little support (Kiserlovski)

Hesjedal has Cardoso to support. He was really strong yesterday.

Other teams like Cannondale, Garmin, Europcar et all will start to chase because their coveted top 10 place is in danger.

Garmin has too little riders in the race to chase.

 

[Stelvio]

Not sure if anyone has shown the link yet but below is the live Stelvio webcam.

http://www.stelvio.net/english/webcam/stelvio---passo-stelvio---webcam_57.html

The current picture is (apparently) always at http://jpeg.popso.it/webcam/webcam_online/stelviolive_04.jpg

13°C in Bormio, snow at ~2200m and 0°C at ~2500m.

Those that like it warm may have some trouble.

http://www.stelvio.net/meteo.php
http://www.ilmeteo.it/meteo/Bormio

 

[Frosty]

Maybe one team will want to push it hard at the start tomorrow to see if any of the main contenders are struggling? Could make it an extra tough stage if so.

 

[Eclipse]

No sun there at the moment - the photo at the top is just a general photo, you have to scroll down a bit to see the latest photo.

I know. At the time I commented there was a bit of sunshine poking through =)

 

[Tank Engine]

In stage 14 Poels was stronger than Uran.

Out of the top 5 Quintana barely has any support, Aru even less. Rogers was decent yesterday, but on other stages Poels was stronger. Evans can count on Morabito and Sanchez seems to be improving somewhat.

So he has the second best support out of the top 5. All the other leaders have no support (Kelderman, Rolland, Hesjedal, Basso, Pellizotti) or little support (Kiserlovski), with only Pozzovivo having support of about the same level as OPQS.

I'd say that Rolland has had pretty good support. He's been attacking early and each time there has been a guy in the break who has waited for him. In addition, Thurau was awesome on Stage 14 (and not only then). He paced Rolland away from the peloton on the penultimate climb. Rolland only had to start working with Ryder at the steep part of the final climb after having two "little green men" with him.

As for tomorrow, hope the stage goes ahead as planned. A lot depends on the conditions and the composition of the break. It is going to be manic on the Gavia. Apart from comparisons with the 2011 Galibier-Alpe d'Huez stage, the 1997 Bourg d'Oisans-Courchevel (148km) had a similar profile. Festina went amok on the first climb and destroyed the peloton. An in form Pantani lost 3 minutes although he was quickest up the final climb (I know, different era)

 

[manafana]

so handling the cold will be half the battle here, Uran copes fine but who else is good in the cold?

Majka should be ok, issue for Aru I would think, cuddles should be ok too

 

[The Hitch]

We should organize fan commentary sometime, would be awesome.

lol yeah that would be great. Beat listening to ES for the Tour that's for sure.

 

[pastronef]

so handling the cold will be half the battle here, Uran copes fine but who else is good in the cold?

Majka should be ok, issue for Aru I would think, cuddles should be ok too

Ryder is 11th, he has nothing to lose. I hope he gives it a go

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

Are they going to keep Arredondo on a leash again?

Otherwise he will go on the breakaway.

Duarte will go as well. Duarte will take the stage.

Have no idea what will happen with the GC contenders. They'll send reinforcements in the breakaway.

duarte won't go early. he's a diesel and this stage is much too short for him

 

[doperhopper]

Quote: Originally Posted by Mellow Velo
Of course, whether the helicopters can fly, or we end up with a static camera shot of the final km, is another matter..............

=====================

Come on, it's 21st century, just give few guys mobile phones, we don't need hypermegaHD resolution (especially if the alternative is no video)

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

Perfect stage for Duarte.
I'm expecting big things from Quintana here, even an attack on Stelvio. Aru was amazing yesterday but this is a different beast. Not sure how he will handle it.

if the stage was 200 km+ and not after a restday then yes.perfect. especially the altitude, which will favor all colombians tomorrow.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

An interesting rebuttal and whilst I agree short stages alone would do little to combat clinic stuff, long stages seem almost a command to dope. Who wants to suffer for 7 hours and finish 50th.

On the non-doping side, long stages are useful in moderation as they test a different attribute that a GC rider should have but personally they do little for the excitement as it becomes a steady war of attrition rather than short explosive attacks. Explosiveness should not be ignored completely.

i'm seriously drownig in the amount of horse**** I just read there

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

weather forecast is **** for gavia

so i expect cancel

weather forecats in the mountains are always bull****

 

[BigMac]

i'm seriously drownig in the amount of horse**** I just read there

weather forecats in the mountains are always bull****

Oh... The smell of irony.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

José Herrada is higher up the GC than Samu Sánchez so he's been decent. Movistar have missed the break the last two days so I feel pretty sure they'll try to put somebody strong into it tomorrow. Herrada would force OPQS to chase hard, somebody like Szmyd or Antón could help Quintana on the climb at the end as although they've been a long way from what they can be so far, if they target something and coming on from the rest day, they're far enough down to get allowed away.

And I still remember Igor killing everybody three years ago on the Zoncolán and it makes me sad remembering what he once was.

yeah herrada is something like 20 minutes behind, very dangerous for quickstep! and szmyd isnt even riding the giro....

 

[SafeBet]

so handling the cold will be half the battle here, Uran copes fine but who else is good in the cold?

Majka should be ok, issue for Aru I would think, cuddles should be ok too

He was fifth last year in the snow stage.

 

[SafeBet]

if the stage was 200 km+ and not after a restday then yes.perfect. especially the altitude, which will favor all colombians tomorrow.

So what do you think Duarte will do?

 

[Red Rick]

Any idea's what time the coverage starst tomorrow?