Stage 5: San Martino di Castrozza - Alpe di Siusi

[Zoncolan]

As so many bright minds said before me, discuss!

 

[Zoncolan]

Finally, we hit the first real big climb of this year's Giro.
No more pu$$y-footing about. Time for the climbers to let it rip.
With all the legendary climbs left out of the centenary Giro, the French cols being thrown out (wonder why), and Blockhaus neutered (again), the mountain goats must go all-out here.
Leipheimer and Menchov will take a lot of time on the others in the big TT, even on Basso and Sastre, and Cunego, Di Luca, Simoni will all lose about 5 mins.
If the Liquigas boys want to win this Giro, they should make a move today.
I expect Pellizotti and/or Basso to start attacking in the final 7-8 k's when it kicks up.
If they really open up, Leipheimer and Menchov won't be able to follow.
I don't think Di Luca and Garzelli will be super strong today. Very interested to see how Sastre will do. I expect him to come into form for Vesuvius.
I think it'll be either Pellizotti or Basso in pink at the end of the day, but they must attack!

 

[flyor64]

Finally, we hit the first real big climb of this year's Giro.
No more pu$$y-footing about. Time for the climbers to let it rip.
With all the legendary climbs left out of the centenary Giro, the French cols being thrown out (wonder why), and Blockhaus neutered (again), the mountain goats must go all-out here.
Leipheimer and Menchov will take a lot of time on the others in the big TT, even on Basso and Sastre, and Cunego, Di Luca, Simoni will all lose about 5 mins.
If the Liquigas boys want to win this Giro, they should make a move today.
I expect Pellizotti and/or Basso to start attacking in the final 7-8 k's when it kicks up.
If they really open up, Leipheimer and Menchov won't be able to follow.
I don't think Di Luca and Garzelli will be super strong today. Very interested to see how Sastre will do. I expect him to come into form for Vesuvius.
I think it'll be either Pellizotti or Basso in pink at the end of the day, but they must attack!

I hope I get home in time to catch those last 7-8 KMs, I forgot to set the DVR on my way out the door today

 

[BroDeal]

This stage is way too short.

I wonder which contenders will fall by the wayside. Who showed weakness yesterday?

 

[jonjungel]

This stage is way too short.

I wonder which contenders will fall by the wayside. Who showed weakness yesterday?

I predict Lövkvist, Armstrong and Garzelli will lose a lot of time.

 

[flyor64]

This stage is way too short.

Crap...I'd forgotten how short it was...

"live" text updates for me today.

 

[Zoncolan]

This stage is way too short.

I wonder which contenders will fall by the wayside. Who showed weakness yesterday?

Yeah, too short for huge gaps, but a minute, minute and a half could happen.
None of the big guns. I think Garzelli, Rogers, Lovkvist, Rodriguez will lose time. Also, I wouldn't be surprised to see Menchov, Sastre, Leipheimer, Di Luca, Cunego also lose some time, though not as much.

Pellizotti and Basso should be strongest today, also maybe Gibo could do something, though he'd probably like it to be a bit steeper.

 

[ingsve]

I don't think Lövkvist will lose that much time. I guess it depends how early the attacks start and how he's feeling but he does wear the leader jersey which tends to be a boost to riders especially people wearing it for the first time. I'd say he could lose a few minutes or something like that but he won't lose alot of time.

He himself says: “Today I will have a free role on the team, but I still expect to get help from my teammates. We have different cards to play with Rogers for example, but I’m going to do what I can to keep the jersey”.

 

[St. Elia]

Pellizotti and Cunego will make a move and Basso and the rest will wait and stay steady, still a lot of racing left and not a good idea to take the pink quite yet. I would think the Astana boys will stay in the hunt but not do anything too crazy till the ITT.

The old bull and young bull story I think would fit here.

L

 

[Zoncolan]

I don't think Lövkvist will lose that much time. I guess it depends how early the attacks start and how he's feeling but he does wear the leader jersey which tends to be a boost to riders especially people wearing it for the first time. I'd say he could lose a few minutes or something like that but he won't lose alot of time.

He himself says: “Today I will have a free role on the team, but I still expect to get help from my teammates. We have different cards to play with Rogers for example, but I’m going to do what I can to keep the jersey”.

He'll crack just like last year at the Tour. He's a decent climber, but he can't climb with the best. Hope he proves me wrong though

 

[Leopejo]

I hope I get home in time to catch those last 7-8 KMs, I forgot to set the DVR on my way out the door today

I expect the stage to finish earlier than yesterday, probably before 5 pm local time.

 

[Bala Verde]

Menchov has said (according to Laurens ten Dam), that he feels really strong. Yesterday he hung at the back, Laurens, a little worried, went back to ask him how he was doing, and he replied: 'ah, it's the first day in the mountains, they all take it easy. They try to hide a little, they don't want to show what form they are in. I prefer to stay out of the picture entirely...'

An indication of how strong he is, was his chase on the peloton the other day, where he 'only' lost 24s. I think the gap after the crash was initially around 15s, so he lost a mere 9s by himself, on a peloton heading for a sprint...

I think today's stage will be more interesting, and it's probably start somewhere right after the 2% grade on the last climb (7-10k befroe finish). Unless differences have been made in the long descent ie that a gc contender has fallen behind for whatever reason...

 

[rhubroma]

Finally, we hit the first real big climb of this year's Giro.
No more pu$$y-footing about. Time for the climbers to let it rip.
With all the legendary climbs left out of the centenary Giro, the French cols being thrown out (wonder why), and Blockhaus neutered (again), the mountain goats must go all-out here.
Leipheimer and Menchov will take a lot of time on the others in the big TT, even on Basso and Sastre, and Cunego, Di Luca, Simoni will all lose about 5 mins.
If the Liquigas boys want to win this Giro, they should make a move today.
I expect Pellizotti and/or Basso to start attacking in the final 7-8 k's when it kicks up.
If they really open up, Leipheimer and Menchov won't be able to follow.
I don't think Di Luca and Garzelli will be super strong today. Very interested to see how Sastre will do. I expect him to come into form for Vesuvius.
I think it'll be either Pellizotti or Basso in pink at the end of the day, but they must attack!

Good points. I'm curious to see how Leipheimer does today. You're right the other climbers have to drop him before the time trial. Though I wouldn't be so certain that Basso would necessarily loose huge amounts of time to Leipheimer in that time trial. For one if Basso can time trial the way he did just before OP, then he shouldn't loose great time (and perhaps could surprise everybody by gaining time). Realistically though he will loose some time but if he's super not more than 40 seconds. Then there is the fact that the course is atypical. It has two long climbs and two technical descents, which don't favor a pure specialist. Leipheimer should do well, but the course could help the likes of Basso in reducing Leipheimer's advantage. At least on paper...

 

[Herman]

Watch out for Arroyo Today . he was strong yesterday .

 

[BroDeal]

I wonder if Voekler would win more if he did not jump in every break in every stage of every race he does. That dude must go to sleep every day of the season just wasted.

Simoni to win today.

 

[Bala Verde]

Yes, underway. I've got picture, and.... Richard Virenque is a commentator today! Very appropriate

hmm serpa and ochoa in the chase (4 m ahead of peloton)... Simoni is up to something...

 

[53x11 in DC]

Wow - they are smoking this stage - gazzetta had them going thru 49km to go at 15.48 and they ACTUALLY went thru at 15.23. Glad it's early as I have a flight to Detroit at 12:50 Eastern!!

 

[53x11 in DC]

Oh, and the 15.48 time was their FASTEST estimate.

 

[mr. tibbs]

OMG STFU ABOUT ARMSTRONG!11!!!1!one!!eleven

 

[Leopejo]

Oh, and the 15.48 time was their FASTEST estimate.

Those estimates are done by considering the same speed all the time - while obviously their average speed is going to drop on the last climb.

Besides, the official start was at 13.37 instead of 13.50.

Nonetheless, they are flying. True, they had a long descent, but their average was over 46 km/h a few minutes ago despite the first climb.

EDIT: officially 45,7 km/h (28.4 mph) average speed after two hours.

 

[BroDeal]

OMG STFU ABOUT ARMSTRONG!11!!!1!one!!eleven

+a million

Wow, this guy is annoying. He just got done droning on an on about Armstrong's bike.

 

[mr. tibbs]

OMG STFU ABOUT ARMSTRONG!11!!!1!one!!eleven

But the commentator DOES seem to know a lot about geography and history. Also, beer, it seems.

 

[krebs303]

mmmmmmm beer

 

[BroDeal]

I love how Voight's age is defined in terms of days older than Lance Armstrong.

Jeebus, I don't think I can take it anymore.

 

[Leopejo]

mmmmmmm beer

mmmmm final climb