Stages vs overall?

[taiwan]

I just lost the text I was gonna post but I make the probabilities if 184 riders, winners selected randomly:

GC 0.005
Stage 0.114
2 Stages 0.012
3 Stages 0.001

OK that's total oversimplication but I can't be ***ed/can't remember how to do it properly. In any case by 4 stage wins if not 3 you're going to get under the probability of winning the GC. Agree?

 

[shalgo]

Obviously the overall GC is by far the greatest achievement. But what about GC placings versus a stage win?

For me GC 1-5 > stage win(s)
Stage win > GC 10-15
Not quite sure how to rate GC 6-10 or points/mountain jersey vs. stage win.

Any thoughts?

We have already had this discussion:

http://forum.cyclingnews.com/showthread.php?t=19933

 

[karlboss]

What if it wasn't a sprinter winning multiple stages. Would the prestige in winning 7 stages change if it was, say, Cancellara who won 7 stages over varied terrain always in a break?

 

[ingsve]

You're basically saying that there is nothing a sprinter can do in his career to equal a GT winner. It's not a satisfactory answer to the OP, you're totally dismissing the value of (flat) stage wins.

It isn't always that hard to win a GC if you're simply that much better than the competition. See the '11 Giro.

In stages races there is nothing. The closest thing to winning a GT that a sprinter can do is to win classics or Worlds.

 

[taiwan]

In stages races there is nothing. The closest thing to winning a GT that a sprinter can do is to win classics or Worlds.

Tour stages are a big deal for a sprinter. Major Classics and the Worlds are obviously not pure sprinters' races. Day races that are always bunch kicks are insignificant.

 

[Netserk]

If you by pure sprinter mean a rider who can't compete in neither MSR nor the Copenhagen worlds, then they don't belong on the road, but on the track instead.

 

[taiwan]

...because the Worlds is held yearly in Copenhagen. MSR is for classicists not sprinters. Most of the quickest guys cannot contend including Cav generally. If you think the top road sprinters shouldn't be in the peloton it's just prejudice. It's a valid specialismn in road cycling.

 

[Netserk]

No and thanks god for that!

However Zolder, Madrid, Salzburg & Melbourne were all relatively easy.

 

[taiwan]

Melbourne was the only one of those I saw, but apparently only Copenhagen and Zolder were bunch sprints, 9 years apart. Not saying the Worlds should be a sprinter's race, but it rarely is.

 

[Netserk]

Have you seen the results for Salzburg?

 

[Netserk]

In Madrid 67 riders was within 30 seconds of the winner (Boonen). Petacchi was amongst the pre-race favourites. 23 riders had the same time as Boonen.

 

[taiwan]

Yeah OK my bad, although we're still talking 5 years from Salzburg to Copenhagen.

 

[Netserk]

So '02, '05, '06, '10 & '11 were all (relatively) easy.

 

[taiwan]

10 no. Gilbert was solid favourite all along, then it was a reduced sprint.

Hold on, these are not solid field sprints. 06 was an attack, 05 was a reduced sprint also.