Stages vs overall?

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Aug 18, 2009
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I just lost the text I was gonna post but I make the probabilities if 184 riders, winners selected randomly:

GC 0.005
Stage 0.114
2 Stages 0.012
3 Stages 0.001

OK that's total oversimplication but I can't be ***ed/can't remember how to do it properly. In any case by 4 stage wins if not 3 you're going to get under the probability of winning the GC. Agree?
 
Mar 13, 2009
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What if it wasn't a sprinter winning multiple stages. Would the prestige in winning 7 stages change if it was, say, Cancellara who won 7 stages over varied terrain always in a break?
 
taiwan said:
You're basically saying that there is nothing a sprinter can do in his career to equal a GT winner. It's not a satisfactory answer to the OP, you're totally dismissing the value of (flat) stage wins.

It isn't always that hard to win a GC if you're simply that much better than the competition. See the '11 Giro.
In stages races there is nothing. The closest thing to winning a GT that a sprinter can do is to win classics or Worlds.
 
Aug 18, 2009
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ingsve said:
In stages races there is nothing. The closest thing to winning a GT that a sprinter can do is to win classics or Worlds.
Tour stages are a big deal for a sprinter. Major Classics and the Worlds are obviously not pure sprinters' races. Day races that are always bunch kicks are insignificant.
 
Aug 18, 2009
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...because the Worlds is held yearly in Copenhagen. MSR is for classicists not sprinters. Most of the quickest guys cannot contend including Cav generally. If you think the top road sprinters shouldn't be in the peloton it's just prejudice. It's a valid specialismn in road cycling.
 
Aug 18, 2009
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Melbourne was the only one of those I saw, but apparently only Copenhagen and Zolder were bunch sprints, 9 years apart. Not saying the Worlds should be a sprinter's race, but it rarely is.
 
Aug 18, 2009
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10 no. Gilbert was solid favourite all along, then it was a reduced sprint.

Hold on, these are not solid field sprints. 06 was an attack, 05 was a reduced sprint also.
 

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