Steven Kruijswijk

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Obviously. But for this particular GT, I think its a wrong statement to make. I think lots and lots of people not Danish had Fuglsang over Kruijswijk at the start of the Tour - I did as well.

However, it was pretty clear pretty quickly this Tour that Fuglsang would stand no chance at the top of the overall GC which I wrote a big post about in the Fuglsang-threat.
 
Sep 10, 2016
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Dekker_Tifosi said:
Logic-is-your-friend said:
He's no Fuglsang though!
:eek:
Well everyone not Danish knew Kruijswijk was the more likely threat, lets be honest here
Lance Armstrong picked Fuglsang as his favorite to win the GC, before the race.
 
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Dekker_Tifosi said:
yaco said:
With the remaining parcours he should finish on the podium - Once he hits form he will ride consistently day after day - Must say he was dead set ordinary in the Dauphine.
To someone not paying attention.

His Dauphine time trial was excellent. He got sick after which is why he was bad in the mountain and then abandoned.
However that time trial should've been a clear sign already.
Except, I was paying attention - As a point of comparison A.Yates put in a good ITT at Dauphine and then got sick on the last day when he was second - Kruisjwilk was under par in the Dauphine - Though history shows that one or two riders who are under par in lead up races get their peak right for the TDF.
 
He really seems to be in great form and I doubt he will ever get a better chance for a top result at the Tour. Those last two days in the mountains are going to suit him perfectly.

IMO, highly likely to podium and a genuine chance to win.
 
The Barb said:
He really seems to be in great form and I doubt he will ever get a better chance for a top result at the Tour. Those last two days in the mountains are going to suit him perfectly.

IMO, highly likely to podium and a genuine chance to win.
Podium, yes. Winning... I just don't see how he could find the kick to drop eventually all three of his biggest rivals. And he needs to drop all of them at least once to win the Tour. He seems very diesel type of rider nowadays, actually I can't remember when he has kicked out of selective group of riders in any mountain stage in any race in the way i.e. Pinot and Thomas has already done this Tour. Of course if all others just cracks one by one on pure pace, then it is possible. I just don't see it happen.
 
I think Steven is in the perfect spot to take the win over the coming mountain stages. His 3rd week recovery is always good, and especially now i expect big things. He has had very little attention thus far, and no bad luck at all.
 
Mar 6, 2011
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gerundium said:
I think Steven is in the perfect spot to take the win over the coming mountain stages. His 3rd week recovery is always good, and especially now i expect big things. He has had very little attention thus far, and no bad luck at all.
I would be surprised now if he didnt podium. He is the 1 guy I dont see cracking or making mistakes.
 
Steven is best at really long tempo drags, which are the Alps. Yesterday climbs were a bit shorter and more explosive. Same with LPDBF..

He'll outlast more people like on the Tourmalet, but he lacks the final kick. However, if others get tired enough he is still very much a candidate.
 
I think his problem will be the fact that the alpine stages are a bit too easy for him to drop people after a war of attrition, there isn't a queenstage that comes close to a real Giro tappone.
 
Jul 13, 2016
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The only way he can win it is if all of the competitors have atleast one (semi) bad day, which is possible but I don't see it happening.
 
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Bardamu said:
The only way he can win it is if all of the competitors have atleast one (semi) bad day, which is possible but I don't see it happening.
Obvioulsy he needs Ala to crack, but he is still ahead of Pinot and he has shown on Tourmalet he can gain time on G, so its still possible
 
Problem is it's the wrong side of the Galibier and it's not a mtf which both doesn't favor him. Tignes & Val Thorens are short mountain stages again. Although Tignes has at least Iseran beforehand.

All in all that's enough to put him as a likely podium in Paris, but just isn't demanding enough to make him win the yellow jersey!
 
Jul 13, 2016
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del1962 said:
Bardamu said:
The only way he can win it is if all of the competitors have atleast one (semi) bad day, which is possible but I don't see it happening.
Obvioulsy he needs Ala to crack, but he is still ahead of Pinot and he has shown on Tourmalet he can gain time on G, so its still possible
He's barely ahead of Bernal, Pinot & Buchmann. And he's not the guy who takes time on all the rest, his way of taking time is not cracking when others do. Small chance that all of the others start cracking while he doesn't.
 
Re: Re:

Bardamu said:
del1962 said:
Bardamu said:
The only way he can win it is if all of the competitors have atleast one (semi) bad day, which is possible but I don't see it happening.
Obvioulsy he needs Ala to crack, but he is still ahead of Pinot and he has shown on Tourmalet he can gain time on G, so its still possible
He's barely ahead of Bernal, Pinot & Buchmann. And he's not the guy who takes time on all the rest, his way of taking time is not cracking when others do. Small chance that all of the others start cracking while he doesn't.
Yep. And he is going to lose the sprint for bonus seconds for any of those and that kind of sprint is for sure to happen at least once or twice in Alps.
 
He tried last year, but was reeled back in by Sky. Not sure whether he risks it again with that in mind. Still, he hasn't got the kick to create a gap and can't even stomp away like Fuglsang & Riis. Then, the speed is very high so far on the climbs and Ineos might be a bit better in the Alps again.
 
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staubsauger said:
He tried last year, but was reeled back in by Sky. Not sure whether he risks it again with that in mind. Still, he hasn't got the kick to create a gap and can't even stomp away like Fuglsang & Riis. Then, the speed is very high so far on the climbs and Ineos might be a bit better in the Alps again.
He could in the Giro 2016, when everybody got tired.

Week 3 is a different game. I don't see it happening either, but a good day in the final 3 stages could mean a lot.
 
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