Teams & Riders Tadej Pogačar discussion thread

[Peyroteo94]

If they are not going in with Bjerg-Pollit-Wellens-Vermeersch-Morgado-Del Toro-Narvaez-Pogacar in that order before Cipressa there is no way them going under 9 min. Only in that order that can work. And Del Toro+Narvaez need somehow survive until Poggio.

Del Toro can be there only to swap with Morgado.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Sure he was tired but he could have won in Glasgow. The same goes for the OG and the Vuelta. Or do you believe he would have been nowhere in those races?

No, I think he would win the Vuelta but not the Olympics. He couldn't drop MVP or WVA but I believe Remco wouldn't win too so a final sprint between MVP and WVA to see the winner.

 

[Poursuivant]

Sean Kelly's Classics Column: Tadej Pogačar would be crazy to ride Paris-Roubaix

Sean Kelly analyses an eventful weekend at Strade Bianche, and looks at where Pogačar's Classics campaign goes from here

www.cyclingnews.com

 

[Divergence]

No, I think he would win the Vuelta but not the Olympics. He couldn't drop MVP or WVA but I believe Remco wouldn't win too so a final sprint between MVP and WVA to see the winner.

So, basically you agree that Pog is at the level where he could do all the big races throughout the year and be competitive (maybe win 70-80% of them).

 

[Poursuivant]

If they are not going in with Bjerg-Pollit-Wellens-Vermeersch-Morgado-Del Toro-Narvaez-Pogacar in that order before Cipressa there is no way them going under 9 min. Only in that order that can work. And Del Toro+Narvaez need somehow survive until Poggio.

I think it’s time to try going all in on the Cipressa, set a relentless pace, Pog can launch and see who can go with him. Waiting for the Poggio hasn’t worked on his previous attempts and as others have mentioned, he is up against riders who have already shown they can go with him over the Poggio so he has to try something different, in my opinion.

 

[Peyroteo94]

So, basically you agree that Pog is at the level where he could do all the big races throughout the year and be competitive (maybe win 70-80% of them).

One thing is being competitive, other thing is being dominant. He wants to win, not just compete.

 

[Red Rick]

"We're aiming for sub 9 Cipressa" to me sounds like they wanna pace that as a team, not set up for a solo attack on Cipressa. I doubt anyone seriously doubts Pog can go sub 9 minutes.

 

[Cookster15]

Sean Kelly's Classics Column: Tadej Pogačar would be crazy to ride Paris-Roubaix

Sean Kelly analyses an eventful weekend at Strade Bianche, and looks at where Pogačar's Classics campaign goes from here

www.cyclingnews.com

Nice to know someone like Kelly is echoing my thoughts about Pog should avoid PR at this point in his career. Although I don't agree a rider winning solo from a long way out covered in blood means SB is getting too difficult, or too dangerous. It just means he misjudged a corner.

 

[Divergence]

One thing is being competitive, other thing is being dominant. He wants to win, not just compete.

When I say competitive I mean he has a chance to win. Just like at Strade last weekend. He cannot dominate every race nor he needs to and I do not think he would mind If he would have won (say the ORR by "just" 20s).
I any case what I am saying is that it seems to me that Pog can participate in every major race throughout the calendar and he can win most of them (maybe even all of them in a season). By this I mean that if he would have gone to the Vuelta last year eh could have still won the WCRR and Lombardia.

 

[Cookster15]

"We're aiming for sub 9 Cipressa" to me sounds like they wanna pace that as a team, not set up for a solo attack on Cipressa. I doubt anyone seriously doubts Pog can go sub 9 minutes.

Agree. Sub 9 minutes means an average speed on the climb of 37km/h which means a big draft to follow for rivals. Doubt they would be dropped and then Pogi has MVDP in the group to fight out the Poggio.

This just underlines why MSR is so difficult for a rider like Pogacar to win. But Nibali won it with a big attack / descent on the Poggio. Looking down the winners over the years there are plenty of non sprinters who have won MSR - Fignon, Bugno, even Chiappucci ! So who knows.

Cipressa - Profile of the ascent

Cipressa is a climb in the region Imperia. It is 5.6km long and bridges 231 vertical meters with an average gradient of 4.1%, resulting in a difficulty score of

climbfinder.com

 

[Red Rick]

Agree. Sub 9 minutes means an average speed on the climb of 37km/h which means a big draft to follow for rivals. Doubt they would be dropped and then Pogi has MVDP in the group to fight out the Poggio.

This just underlines why MSR is so difficult for a rider like Pogacar to win. But Nibali won it with a big attack / descent on the Poggio. Looking down the winners over the years there are plenty of non sprinters who have won MSR - Fignon, Bugno, even Chiappucci ! So who knows.

Cipressa - Profile of the ascent

Cipressa is a climb in the region Imperia. It is 5.6km long and bridges 231 vertical meters with an average gradient of 4.1%, resulting in a difficulty score of

climbfinder.com

Mihai Simion has it at 5.7km so 38 kph average. Curiously enough that's a higher VAM than the Poggio record, but the lower gradient and the switchbacks of the Poggio make lower the speed there considerably.

In my view Pogacar's best bet is a late attack in a reduced group, normally the Poggio is too easy for Pogacar to drop everyone on, and even then there's a problem of getting enough of a gap so nobody catches you.

I kinda feel like Philipsen is just gonna repeat this year

 

[QueenStagiaire]

Agree. Sub 9 minutes means an average speed on the climb of 37km/h which means a big draft to follow for rivals. Doubt they would be dropped and then Pogi has MVDP in the group to fight out the Poggio.

This just underlines why MSR is so difficult for a rider like Pogacar to win. But Nibali won it with a big attack / descent on the Poggio. Looking down the winners over the years there are plenty of non sprinters who have won MSR - Fignon, Bugno, even Chiappucci ! So who knows.

Cipressa - Profile of the ascent

Cipressa is a climb in the region Imperia. It is 5.6km long and bridges 231 vertical meters with an average gradient of 4.1%, resulting in a difficulty score of

climbfinder.com

Well, Nibali won because nobody followed and they all looked at each other, that just won‘t happen for Pogačar.

 

[rafa92]

Agree. Sub 9 minutes means an average speed on the climb of 37km/h which means a big draft to follow for rivals. Doubt they would be dropped and then Pogi has MVDP in the group to fight out the Poggio.

This just underlines why MSR is so difficult for a rider like Pogacar to win. But Nibali won it with a big attack / descent on the Poggio. Looking down the winners over the years there are plenty of non sprinters who have won MSR - Fignon, Bugno, even Chiappucci ! So who knows.

Cipressa - Profile of the ascent

Cipressa is a climb in the region Imperia. It is 5.6km long and bridges 231 vertical meters with an average gradient of 4.1%, resulting in a difficulty score of

climbfinder.com

I am a big nibali fan, but there's no way he would have won msr if he was as marked as pog, I remember watching msr 2018 and the group basically let him go, his time on poggio was quite mediocre (6 min 5 sec, way higher than pog's last year record of 5 mintues 38 sec, or even of kiatkowski' time in 2017 which was 5.47 ) and also on the descent his time was nothing special, way slower than mohoric in 2022 for example (13 sec slower to be precise, but he was also slower than stuyven in 2021 for example). This is not a knock on nibali, it's just to say that for pog the bar is way higher than any other rider who has ever tried to win sanremo

 

[Cookster15]

Well, Nibali won because nobody followed and they all looked at each other, that just won‘t happen for Pogačar.

Yeh, good answer. Probably also how riders like Chiappucci won it in the past.

 

[Red Rick]

I am a big nibali fan, but there's no way he would have won msr if he was as marked as pog, I remember watching msr 2018 and the group basically let him go, his time on poggio was quite mediocre (6 min 5 sec, way higher than pog's last year record of 5 mintues 38 sec, or even of kiatkowski' time in 2017 which was 5.47 ) and also on the descent his time was nothing special, way slower than mohoric in 2022 for example (13 sec slower to be precise, but he was also slower than stuyven in 2021 for example). This is not a knock on nibali, it's just to say that for pog the bar is way higher than any other rider who has ever tried to win sanremo

I mean that couldn't be more obvious. Everything came together, which is what made it so special. It's right up there with Roglic winning LBL

Climb/descent times aren't a great indicator simply because it was a headwind edition. Also, it's a pedaling descent where it makes a difference if you've only attacked the last ramp of the Poggio or if you've been solo half the climb.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

2040, Pogi before his 20th MSR attempt:
"I'm not explosive enough anymore to try on Poggio and Cipressa. Tomorrow I will attack just after the start and will pace myself for 300 km. Hopefully my superior engine will make the difference! Recently I did 1000 km in 24 hours to get ready for this. "

 

[Salvarani]

Well, Nibali won because nobody followed and they all looked at each other, that just won‘t happen for Pogačar.

Yeah, if he times it really well and they hesitate is his best chance. As MVDP has done. Or Mohoric. Or like you say, Nibali.

However, someone could sacrifice their own chance (MVDP last year) to ride for a teammate. Pog could have gotten away otherwise.

As seen last year he is no slouch in a sprint either, but it is hard if real sprinters are still left.

He will keep trying.

 

[Berniece]

He was completely dead in Glasgow. He was third because he is/was so superior compared to his rivals than even a fatigued Pogi is good enough to compete for a good place.

Or he just wasn’t good enough… There doesn’t always need to be an excuse. Wonder how Evenepoel became WC after Vuelta and double Olympic gold winner after the TDF

 

[AmRacer]

Or he just wasn’t good enough… There doesn’t always need to be an excuse. Wonder how Evenepoel became WC after Vuelta and double Olympic gold winner after the TDF

WC, Mathieu had his issues and another 2022 Pogi bad tactical decision letting Remco go.

Olympics RR, Mathieu wasn't at his best and Wout helped Remco a lot.

What's the excuses for Remco not winning more GT's?

 

[Salvarani]

WC, Mathieu had his issues and another 2022 Pogi bad tactical decision letting Remco go.

Olympics RR, Mathieu wasn't at his best and Wout helped Remco a lot.

What's the excuses for Remco not winning more GT's?

He has been focusing too much on Clasica San Remco.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

He has been focusing too much on Clasica San Remco.

Time for him to finally race Milan San Remco and help Pogi achieve his goal.

 

[Salvarani]

Time for him to finally race Milan San Remco and help Pogi achieve his goal.

It would be welcome to see Remco target a new race instead of just winning the same race over and over again. Challenge himself a bit.

 

[kn0s]

When I say competitive I mean he has a chance to win. Just like at Strade last weekend. He cannot dominate every race nor he needs to and I do not think he would mind If he would have won (say the ORR by "just" 20s).
I any case what I am saying is that it seems to me that Pog can participate in every major race throughout the calendar and he can win most of them (maybe even all of them in a season). By this I mean that if he would have gone to the Vuelta last year eh could have still won the WCRR and Lombardia.

Just so I'm on the same pages. We are talking 80 or more race days winning 90-100% one days and GC's?

 

[AmRacer]

It would be welcome to see Remco target a new race instead of just winning the same race over and over again. Challenge himself a bit.

Or losing the Tour over and over again.

 

[Divergence]

Just so I'm on the same pages. We are talking 80 or more race days winning 90-100% one days and GC's?

70-80% of one day races plus GC at stage races (not individual stages, that would be too much even for Pog ).