Yes, from a rational perspective, I agree with you.
But thinking on a mental perspective, it will be just too much for him to be stomped in back to back GTs.
If he isn't dropped in the Alps, he won't be on a bad place mentally. Even if he's dropped, he probably wouldn't be that bad.
The Tour looked bleak after Hautacam, but he proved competitive in the last MTF's. I see no reason for him to be in a bad place mentally.