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They should've tried this every MSR, but they are so fixated on making Pogacar win, that they forgot to win as a team.
Remco might have thought the same thing at the European Championships, for example, but he's so obsessed with winning that Belgium did all the work being Pogacar alone.
We'll surely see Remco as Lipowitz's domestique at the Tour. In Liège, they should launch Van Gils and have him try to win from the breakaway. I'm sure Remco would agree to that too as we saw at EC
Pogacar was completely alone in that championship, but we already saw what Belgium did.
A team working 100% for the best cyclist of the last 50 years, very strange, yes.
Of the active cyclists, he has the most Monuments, but they're going to take a gamble on Del Toro, who has collapsed in every race over 200km. That's logical.
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- Sep 12, 2022
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It is strange when tactically there are better options. Do they also work for him during flat stages if they brought a sprinter?
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When Pogačar is clearly the second favourite and has been able to drop everyone except a single rider, I don’t think we can blatantly say there are better options.
At most, we can say there may be alternatives to put more pressure on the rivals and cause greater fatigue, but in the end, there is still only one rider in UAE with a significant chance of winning: Pogačar. So yes, they should work for him, the comparassion with a standard flat stage doesn't make any sense.
- Sep 12, 2022
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Yeah looking at the riders that won MSR it’s clear favourites always win. There definitely aren’t any other options.
- Jul 8, 2017
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Frankly this could be his best chance.
I think the chance if winning MAR through some team shenanigans might be as big, or bigger, than dropping everyone on 3-4%.
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Yes, so what? How is that an argument for UAE not working 100% for Pog? I honestly don’t understand your point. If your plan is not built around your best rider (who is also the best in the world) —whatever that plan may be—then something is clearly wrong. They also don’t have anyone who can win a sprint from a larger group, like Alpecin do, so logically they will put all their bets on him. It’s not rocket science.
- Sep 12, 2022
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Because there are better tactics to be used. They don't have to go all-in only on Pogacar if they want to win MSR. They could easily use their other amazing riders since MSR isn't a race where the strongest wins. You can't just make MSR as hard as possible, and by default win, that's the whole charm of the race. So obviously there are other things you could do, to try and win the race. Not all chips needs to be put on Pogacar.
I know this is the Pogacar thread, but I'm baffled people think putting everything on one rider in a race that is known to have some luck being part of it, as well as different riders of different types winning, is the best thing to do. Just say it like it is. Pogacar winning helps with his palmares and the status of the rider. This isn't better for the team, it's better for marketing.
Pogi is the leader. KIf he wants to win a race, it's all in for him. That's how it is. The team wins so much anyway.
- Jul 24, 2025
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"Not all chips need to be put on Pogacar.”
So it’s preferable to put those chips on any other scenario that, by definition, has a lower inherent probability of success? Are they supposed to split the team and reduce the chances of making the race selective enough, even more than it is? If the race is supposedly so random, what other strategies are they going to adopt? Going into the Poggio without a specific plan (attacking randomly with 2/3 riders doesn't seem like a proper plan) and hoping the lottery works in their favour with a random attack that no one responds to?
Let’s break it down:
1) Attacking before the Cipressa and succeeding is possible? It would take a miracle.
2) Attacking on the Cipressa with other riders will that make the race selective enough? Highly unlikely. By last year, no one even believed it was possible to make again the decisive move there, and certainly no one in UAE has currently the ability to do it apart from Pogi.
3) Waiting for the Poggio and trying to drop everyone? Unlikely that Pogacar can do it, unthinkable for any other UAE rider in normal circustances.
4) Attacking on the descent of the Poggio? I don’t see anyone in UAE who can pull off a Mohoric.
5) Winning a (reduced) bunch sprint? Good luck with that.
You think it’s not the best approach for the team; I think they’re trying to maximise their chances of winning, and to do that they back the only rider with a real chance of doing so. If they can try something different from last year, that’s another discussion — but again, given the constraints, the solutions for these so-called “better tactics” are, at best, very limited, and so far, i haven't heard a single specific tatic mentioned here - wonder why that is...
Addionally, the train for Pogacar worked last year, but no doubt there's room for improvement. Still, only one rider was able to survive, so we never know if a similar plan will end up working.
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1-2) Depends who attacks, and who goes along
3) How did Nibali win again?
4) I agree
5) How did Stuyven win again?
- Jul 8, 2017
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If they are able to drastically reduce the peloton leaving a group of 15-20, while they have someone other than Pogacar and attack with, say, Wellens, could prompt Van Der Poel to react.
Which on itself can allow Pogacar to counter, thus increasing his chances to win the race.
Obviously that's far from guaranteed, but that's a valid strategy they can use, which could even benefit Pogacar.
Which on itself can allow Pogacar to counter, thus increasing his chances to win the race.
Obviously that's far from guaranteed, but that's a valid strategy they can use, which could even benefit Pogacar.
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3) Random attack that no one responded to. Want UAE to bet on that? Obviously there's a small chance of working, but doesn't make it a good strat prior to the race.
5) How does UAE have someone like Stuyven? Good luck to anyone from UAE trying to win in a 20-man bunch sprint, i'll bet anything against it.
EDIT: Just remembered that Stuyven attacked before. Anyway, i don't see how is that a strat, that's race circumstances which are not planned.
1-2) are honestly just dream scenarios, don't need to elaboratore on that, the race history says it all.
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3) Bet on it? No, try it, definitely.
5) They have many riders that could do that. You don't think Del Toro could get over the Poggio with the top 20? He could do that, everyone is looking at Pogacar, and of he goes.
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Your answer to 5) says it all... We are discussing what strat is more likely to work, and what you are describing is literally a Hail Mary move, to be used if nothing else prior works. How is that a scenario UAE can plan to or base their race strat on it? And no, i don't think Del Toro currently poses any treat to win MSR, only a miracle.
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MSR is all about numbers. The more riders you have that could make a move, the higher your chances of winning it. But look, let them try again. WVA is also riding again this year, if Ganna is able to follow so will he. I can only see Pogacar ride away on Cipressa if he's lucky because others were badly positioned.
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Even if Pogacar gets away on his own they might run him down. Especially if Philipsen is still there, then MVDP will just work for him. Pogacar needs to get away with one or two others that’ll help work. For your dual threat, if UAE waits for Poggio to attack with another rider they’re not winning. They don’t have another rider that can pull it off and get away unless it’s a very small group.
When Philipsen won he was 10ish over the Poggio, MvdP would do exactly the same in this scenario as he did with Pidcock back then, ruin his race so Philipsen can win
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- Jun 17, 2024
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On these gradients, outside of Narvaez himself I only think Pedersen and MvdP can do a better and more explosive lead‑out than Narvaez in the world, so not replaceable relative in that sense.
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