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Bruyneel talks about what level (relative to peak) he could win at. Not his chance to win.
Ah, ok. You're right. I think 80-85% of Pog top form may actually be enough to win if no big rival appears at the Giro but in this case it would be a hard fought race methinks. No easy way to get it done - either a harder race in a lower form or an easier race in peak form (but never too easy, it's always 3-weeks of hard physical and mental effort).
I think 80/85% is a bit risky because Thomas is a solid GC rider.
Yeah, look at Roglič. He was at 79% last year and he barely won against Thomas.
In theory, bar incident, Thomas shall be at 100%, so at what minimal percentage does Pog need to win? 75? 85? Risky business. Of course, Pog will be nearly in top shape, or else why go for the win? Otherwise it's a wasted GT that would have been better not to start. Anything less than a Giro win, would not justify the sacrifice he will make not to prepare for the Tour optimally. Ergo, unless they are stupid, Pog will go in firing on all cylinders.
If pog only needs to go 80% of capacity to prevail, that’s energy in the bank for the double. I think it’s very optimistic rather than risky
It's risky because we don't know if Pog at 80% beats Thomas at 100%. I think 20% difference is risky. Let us say it's an overstretch and he loses, then what was the point? Now he goes to the Tour to face an optimally prepared Vingo. Good luck with that. No, Pog needs to be near top form to gaurantee the Giro and then hedge his bets at the Tour. Otherwise the Giro has no sense.
The whole percentage thing seems like a good excuse to talk about meaningless things, which I get is more or less the purpose of this whole forum. Who knows what 85% means, and that can look different for different people. If you say it's 85% of the difference between base offseason form and peak form, that might not be a huge difference for a Pogacar or Roglic, who seem to have much narrower floors-to-ceilings, but it seems to be a slightly bigger difference for Vingegaard or Remco, and a wayyy bigger difference for a G.
Also, obviously crashes played into it, but Contador also could win the Giro at 85%, as he did in 2015, but it cost a lot.
Also, obviously crashes played into it, but Contador also could win the Giro at 85%, as he did in 2015, but it cost a lot.
Elos Anjos
BANNED
I just love these %%% porn takes, they're so accurate.
My take is that Pogacar will be at 75% power level at the start of Giro with a rate of less than 1% level improvement per day in order to arrive at the Tour not cooked and continues to maximize his power up to 200%.
My take is that Pogacar will be at 75% power level at the start of Giro with a rate of less than 1% level improvement per day in order to arrive at the Tour not cooked and continues to maximize his power up to 200%.
Remco has already said he wants to be at 200%, so Pogi will have to pick a different number if he doesn't want to be accused of form sucking.
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If Pogi was 20% off from his peak form FTP even I could suck his wheel for a while.
I think Pogacar will enter the Giro in his base form and go Super Saiyan a couple days in week 3 to secure the win, saving Super Saiyan 2 and 3 for the Tour but Vingegaard has Super Saiyan Blue up his sleeve. Pogacar and Roglic could also fuse but who knows what their power level would be after that. Questions to be answered next time on Dragon Ball Cycling.
I don’t think bruyneel was suggesting he would only prep to 80 or 85%. He was suggesting thats about the percentage of his potential it would take to win.
Pog is always on through the whole season. He doesn’t seem to have an extra July gear that Vingo mysteriously shows up with. So pog just shows up at the giro and doesn’t need to dig deep to win. According to bruyneel.
Nice, loving these fractious fractional arguments!
Certainly i don't live in a world where Roglic's climbing level is closer or at the same level of Pogacar and specially Vingegaard.Phahah, what world do you live in
Roglic’s current climbing level is just a bit better than guys like Thomas and Almeida. You just need to look at his best climbing performance of this year on Angliru....he just taked 18 s on Landa. If you take just 18 s on Landa in 2023 on a climb like that, you're level of climbing is not closer to the best version of Pogacar and Vingegaard.
Roglic was never a dominant climber. The majority of his wins were following his opponents wheels and beat them with his stronger final mountain sprint.
He was almost never capable of constant dominant perfomances in true mountain stages like Pogacar and Vingegaard can do. This guys can put minutes on his opponents, Roglic not.
I think your issue is thinking that the Roglic version from last week of the Giro was so less stronger than the "peak Roglic in climbing perfomances", or Roglic version from the Vuelta 2023, but it wasn't.
Let's take a look of his perfomances in true mountain stages during his career.
Tour UAE 2019
Roglic wins on jebel jais (19 km at 5.6%) sprinting against guys like Dumoulin and Gaudu.
Vuelta 2019
Best climbing performance on Santiago de acebo and los machucos but he couldn't never drop Valverde, his climbing level on the Vuelta 2019 was similar to Valverde's climbing level.
He just won one stage (the ITT).
He wins the Vuelta 2023 with an advantage of 2 min and 33 s to Valverde. Valverde lost to Roglic 1 min and 38 s in the ITT and 16 s in the TT. If we ass 1 min and 38 with 16 s, we have 1 min and 54 seconds. So Roglic during that Vuelta was just "39 seconds" stronger in the mountains if we compare with valverde, and probably these seconds could had be "bonus seconds".
Tour Ain 2020
He beats bernal in a mountain sprint on grand colombier ( 17.8 at 7.%) by 4 seconds.
Criterium dauphine 2020
He beats pinot by 8 s in a mountain sprint on col de porte (16.6 at 6.2%).
Tour de France 2020
Col de la loze- He lost the stage to Miguel angel lopez, and barely could make differences to Pogacar.
Col du grand colombier- he lost in the sprint to pogacar, but again he could not do a strong mountain climbing performance.
Vuelta 2021
Best perfomance on alto de moncavillo where he wins with an advantage of 13 seconds to carapaz.
On Alto de angliru he was dropped by guys like hugh carthy.
On alto de covatilla, Movistar saves him.
Paris Nice 2022
He wins on la colmiane (16.2 at 6.2%) with 5 seconds of advantage to schachmann.
Vuelta 2022
This is the best grand tour of his career.
Finally here we can see a dominant perfomance by him on the stage of lagos covadonga where he finishes with an 1 min and 35 s of advantage for the other GC riders.
On alto de gamoniteru he lost again like on La loze to miguel angel lopez. Vingegaard would never lose on la loze or gamoniteru to miguel angel lopez. Just look at what he did on Granon and la loze (tour de france 2023). That's the style of situations where we can see that Roglic climbing level performance is more closer to the level of guys like Thomas, almeida, carapaz instead of the level of guys like Pogacar and specially Vingegaard.
Criterium dauphine 2022
Vingegaard waited for him on plateau de solaison.
Paris nice 2022
Wins on col de turini against the "monster climbing perfomer" daniel martinez in the sprint.
Giro 2023
He lost time to Thomas and almeida on monte bondone (22.7 km at 6.4%).
Vuelta 2023
He wins on angliru but he finishes just 19 s ahead of Landa, so the level wasn't that high.
If you look at the numbers produced by Roglic on angliru, is not that different to the numbers produced by Thomas and almeida on monte bondone.
We could see clearly well that the majority of the victories on Roglic's career weren't dominant the like the victories of Pogacar and Vingegaard. He won (with merit) a lot of races because he was stronger than his opponents in the final sprint and because of his consistency.
I don't understand the concern of thinking that Roglic’s climbing level is not that different (it could perfectly be a bit better) than Thomas climbing level in terms of Grand Tours.
When we talk about Thomas, we are talking about a former Tour de France winner.
If you don't agree with this, it's okay. This is a forum, everyone expresses their opinion. This is my opinion, but at least make some argument instead of put "smiles" and "what world you live".
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4 out 3 people struggle with fractions
I know that's not the point, but "true mountain stages" and "UAE tour" don't go exactly together.
Then I don't agree with Bruyneel. At 85% of capacity he'd theoretically have to dig deep to win, whereas at 100% of capacity it could be a walk in the park to take the pink.
I guess it comes down to what you consider more risky, being less than optimal and chance coming through wrecked or building for a peak in France, or being optimal and coming through fresher, but not being to maintain condition in July?
Yet, this is the very reason nobody has done the double successfully since Pantani, and why so few have ever been successful at all.
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