Teams & Riders Tadej Pogačar discussion thread

[kamaveli]

If Pogi was 20% off from his peak form FTP even I could suck his wheel for a while.

 

[SHAD0W93]

I think Pogacar will enter the Giro in his base form and go Super Saiyan a couple days in week 3 to secure the win, saving Super Saiyan 2 and 3 for the Tour but Vingegaard has Super Saiyan Blue up his sleeve. Pogacar and Roglic could also fuse but who knows what their power level would be after that. Questions to be answered next time on Dragon Ball Cycling.

 

[acm]

Roglic was closer to 100% than 79%.

Phahah, what world do you live in

 

[QueenStagiaire]

Roglic was closer to 100% than 79%.

89.51%?

 

[scribers]

It's risky because we don't know if Pog at 80% beats Thomas at 100%. I think 20% difference is risky. Let us say it's an overstretch and he loses, then what was the point? Now he goes to the Tour to face an optimally prepared Vingo. Good luck with that. No, Pog needs to be near top form to gaurantee the Giro and then hedge his bets at the Tour. Otherwise the Giro has no sense.

I don’t think bruyneel was suggesting he would only prep to 80 or 85%. He was suggesting thats about the percentage of his potential it would take to win.

Pog is always on through the whole season. He doesn’t seem to have an extra July gear that Vingo mysteriously shows up with. So pog just shows up at the giro and doesn’t need to dig deep to win. According to bruyneel.

 

[Sciatic]

89.51%?

Nice, loving these fractious fractional arguments!

 

[Froome]

Phahah, what world do you live in

Certainly i don't live in a world where Roglic's climbing level is closer or at the same level of Pogacar and specially Vingegaard.

Roglic’s current climbing level is just a bit better than guys like Thomas and Almeida. You just need to look at his best climbing performance of this year on Angliru....he just taked 18 s on Landa. If you take just 18 s on Landa in 2023 on a climb like that, you're level of climbing is not closer to the best version of Pogacar and Vingegaard.

Roglic was never a dominant climber. The majority of his wins were following his opponents wheels and beat them with his stronger final mountain sprint.

He was almost never capable of constant dominant perfomances in true mountain stages like Pogacar and Vingegaard can do. This guys can put minutes on his opponents, Roglic not.

I think your issue is thinking that the Roglic version from last week of the Giro was so less stronger than the "peak Roglic in climbing perfomances", or Roglic version from the Vuelta 2023, but it wasn't.

Let's take a look of his perfomances in true mountain stages during his career.

Tour UAE 2019

Roglic wins on jebel jais (19 km at 5.6%) sprinting against guys like Dumoulin and Gaudu.

Vuelta 2019

Best climbing performance on Santiago de acebo and los machucos but he couldn't never drop Valverde, his climbing level on the Vuelta 2019 was similar to Valverde's climbing level.

He just won one stage (the ITT).

He wins the Vuelta 2023 with an advantage of 2 min and 33 s to Valverde. Valverde lost to Roglic 1 min and 38 s in the ITT and 16 s in the TT. If we ass 1 min and 38 with 16 s, we have 1 min and 54 seconds. So Roglic during that Vuelta was just "39 seconds" stronger in the mountains if we compare with valverde, and probably these seconds could had be "bonus seconds".


Tour Ain 2020

He beats bernal in a mountain sprint on grand colombier ( 17.8 at 7.%) by 4 seconds.

Criterium dauphine 2020

He beats pinot by 8 s in a mountain sprint on col de porte (16.6 at 6.2%).

Tour de France 2020

Col de la loze- He lost the stage to Miguel angel lopez, and barely could make differences to Pogacar.

Col du grand colombier- he lost in the sprint to pogacar, but again he could not do a strong mountain climbing performance.

Vuelta 2021

Best perfomance on alto de moncavillo where he wins with an advantage of 13 seconds to carapaz.

On Alto de angliru he was dropped by guys like hugh carthy.

On alto de covatilla, Movistar saves him.

Paris Nice 2022

He wins on la colmiane (16.2 at 6.2%) with 5 seconds of advantage to schachmann.


Vuelta 2022

This is the best grand tour of his career.

Finally here we can see a dominant perfomance by him on the stage of lagos covadonga where he finishes with an 1 min and 35 s of advantage for the other GC riders.

On alto de gamoniteru he lost again like on La loze to miguel angel lopez. Vingegaard would never lose on la loze or gamoniteru to miguel angel lopez. Just look at what he did on Granon and la loze (tour de france 2023). That's the style of situations where we can see that Roglic climbing level performance is more closer to the level of guys like Thomas, almeida, carapaz instead of the level of guys like Pogacar and specially Vingegaard.


Criterium dauphine 2022

Vingegaard waited for him on plateau de solaison.


Paris nice 2022

Wins on col de turini against the "monster climbing perfomer" daniel martinez in the sprint.


Giro 2023

He lost time to Thomas and almeida on monte bondone (22.7 km at 6.4%).


Vuelta 2023

He wins on angliru but he finishes just 19 s ahead of Landa, so the level wasn't that high.

If you look at the numbers produced by Roglic on angliru, is not that different to the numbers produced by Thomas and almeida on monte bondone.

We could see clearly well that the majority of the victories on Roglic's career weren't dominant the like the victories of Pogacar and Vingegaard. He won (with merit) a lot of races because he was stronger than his opponents in the final sprint and because of his consistency.

I don't understand the concern of thinking that Roglic’s climbing level is not that different (it could perfectly be a bit better) than Thomas climbing level in terms of Grand Tours.
When we talk about Thomas, we are talking about a former Tour de France winner.

If you don't agree with this, it's okay. This is a forum, everyone expresses their opinion. This is my opinion, but at least make some argument instead of put "smiles" and "what world you live".

 

[Froome]

89.51%?

97.51%.

 

[scribers]

4 out 3 people struggle with fractions

 

[johnymax]

Certainly i don't live in a world where Roglic's climbing level is closer or at the same level of Pogacar and specially Vingegaard.

Roglic’s current climbing level is just a bit better than guys like Thomas and Almeida. You just need to look at his best climbing performance of this year on Angliru....he just taked 18 s on Landa. If you take just 18 s on Landa in 2023 on a climb like that, you're level of climbing is not closer to the best version of Pogacar and Vingegaard.

Roglic was never a dominant climber. The majority of his wins were following his opponents wheels and beat them with his stronger final mountain sprint.

He was almost never capable of constant dominant perfomances in true mountain stages like Pogacar and Vingegaard can do. This guys can put minutes on his opponents, Roglic not.

I think your issue is thinking that the Roglic version from last week of the Giro was so less stronger than the "peak Roglic in climbing perfomances", or Roglic version from the Vuelta 2023, but it wasn't.

Let's take a look of his perfomances in true mountain stages during his career.

Tour UAE 2019

Roglic wins on jebel jais (19 km at 5.6%) sprinting against guys like Dumoulin and Gaudu.

Vuelta 2019

Best climbing performance on Santiago de acebo and los machucos but he couldn't never drop Valverde, his climbing level on the Vuelta 2019 was similar to Valverde's climbing level.

He just won one stage (the ITT).

He wins the Vuelta 2023 with an advantage of 2 min and 33 s to Valverde. Valverde lost to Roglic 1 min and 38 s in the ITT and 16 s in the TT. If we ass 1 min and 38 with 16 s, we have 1 min and 54 seconds. So Roglic during that Vuelta was just "39 seconds" stronger in the mountains if we compare with valverde, and probably these seconds could had be "bonus seconds".


Tour Ain 2020

He beats bernal in a mountain sprint on grand colombier ( 17.8 at 7.%) by 4 seconds.

Criterium dauphine 2020

He beats pinot by 8 s in a mountain sprint on col de porte (16.6 at 6.2%).

Tour de France 2020

Col de la loze- He lost the stage to Miguel angel lopez, and barely could make differences to Pogacar.

Col du grand colombier- he lost in the sprint to pogacar, but again he could not do a strong mountain climbing performance.

Vuelta 2021

Best perfomance on alto de moncavillo where he wins with an advantage of 13 seconds to carapaz.

On Alto de angliru he was dropped by guys like hugh carthy.

On alto de covatilla, Movistar saves him.

Paris Nice 2022

He wins on la colmiane (16.2 at 6.2%) with 5 seconds of advantage to schachmann.


Vuelta 2022

This is the best grand tour of his career.

Finally here we can see a dominant perfomance by him on the stage of lagos covadonga where he finishes with an 1 min and 35 s of advantage for the other GC riders.

On alto de gamoniteru he lost again like on La loze to miguel angel lopez. Vingegaard would never lose on la loze or gamoniteru to miguel angel lopez. Just look at what he did on Granon and la loze (tour de france 2023). That's the style of situations where we can see that Roglic climbing level performance is more closer to the level of guys like Thomas, almeida, carapaz instead of the level of guys like Pogacar and specially Vingegaard.


Criterium dauphine 2022

Vingegaard waited for him on plateau de solaison.


Paris nice 2022

Wins on col de turini against the "monster climbing perfomer" daniel martinez in the sprint.


Giro 2023

He lost time to Thomas and almeida on monte bondone (22.7 km at 6.4%).


Vuelta 2023

He wins on angliru but he finishes just 19 s ahead of Landa, so the level wasn't that high.

If you look at the numbers produced by Roglic on angliru, is not that different to the numbers produced by Thomas and almeida on monte bondone.

We could see clearly well that the majority of the victories on Roglic's career weren't dominant the like the victories of Pogacar and Vingegaard. He won (with merit) a lot of races because he was stronger than his opponents in the final sprint and because of his consistency.

I don't understand the concern of thinking that Roglic’s climbing level is not that different (it could perfectly be a bit better) than Thomas climbing level in terms of Grand Tours.
When we talk about Thomas, we are talking about a former Tour de France winner.

If you don't agree with this, it's okay. This is a forum, everyone expresses their opinion. This is my opinion, but at least make some argument instead of put "smiles" and "what world you live".

I know that's not the point, but "true mountain stages" and "UAE tour" don't go exactly together.

 

[Extinction]

I don’t think bruyneel was suggesting he would only prep to 80 or 85%. He was suggesting thats about the percentage of his potential it would take to win.

Pog is always on through the whole season. He doesn’t seem to have an extra July gear that Vingo mysteriously shows up with. So pog just shows up at the giro and doesn’t need to dig deep to win. According to bruyneel.

Then I don't agree with Bruyneel. At 85% of capacity he'd theoretically have to dig deep to win, whereas at 100% of capacity it could be a walk in the park to take the pink.

I guess it comes down to what you consider more risky, being less than optimal and chance coming through wrecked or building for a peak in France, or being optimal and coming through fresher, but not being to maintain condition in July?

Yet, this is the very reason nobody has done the double successfully since Pantani, and why so few have ever been successful at all.

 

[AmRacer]

Then I don't agree with Bruyneel. At 85% of capacity he'd theoretically have to dig deep to win, whereas at 100% of capacity it could be a walk in the park to take the pink.

I guess it comes down to what you consider more risky, being less than optimal and chance coming through wrecked or building for a peak in France, or being optimal and coming through fresher, but not being to maintain condition in July?

Yet, this is the very reason nobody has done the double successfully since Pantani, and why so few have ever been successful at all.

Pog will of course be near 100 percent at the Giro, but he only need to use 85 percent to win.

 

[acm]

Certainly i don't live in a world where Roglic's climbing level is closer or at the same level of Pogacar and specially Vingegaard.

Who said anything about Pogi or Vingegaard? You wrote that he was closer to 100% than 79%. That is bs, especially if you would know how injured he was after stage 11. And don't even get me started on his shoulder surgery and his inability to train TT. When you take all that into account, you can't be near 100%. But yeah, I guess it's easier just to write some numbers that suit you.

 

[Extinction]

Pog will of course be near 100 percent at the Giro, but he only need to use 85 percent win.

I'll agree with that, but this still poses the question of whether or not he can hold his top condition in July. Herein lies the dilemma.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Roglič was definitely above 790‰ the one day that really mattered.

 

[Netserk]

Vuelta 2019

Best climbing performance on Santiago de acebo and los machucos but he couldn't never drop Valverde, his climbing level on the Vuelta 2019 was similar to Valverde's climbing level.

He just won one stage (the ITT).

He wins the Vuelta 2023 with an advantage of 2 min and 33 s to Valverde. Valverde lost to Roglic 1 min and 38 s in the ITT and 16 s in the TT. If we ass 1 min and 38 with 16 s, we have 1 min and 54 seconds. So Roglic during that Vuelta was just "39 seconds" stronger in the mountains if we compare with valverde, and probably these seconds could had be "bonus seconds".

Did you watch the race?

 

[Froome]

Did you watch the race?

Yes, and like i said, the difference between Valverde and Roglic on that Vuelta wasn't that different in terms of climbing level, even if i confused Valverde (it's been almost 5 years) with Pogacar on los machucos.

Roglic was 43 seconds stronger than Valverde in the mountains on that Vuelta. 27 s on los machucos and 16 s on alto de la cubilla.

 

[Elos Anjos]

The discussion level has sunk again.

In a GT you can win by 1s or 10m, but in the end both are the same. In a sport that runs on attrition it's wise to save energy. It puts other riders guessing on your real strength. Hence you cannot conclude that winning by 10s means that you could have not won by a bigger margin. I recall that only in the last three Tours have the differences been huge. The usual in La Vuelta and in Il Giro is for seconds or a couple of minutes.

 

[kn0s]

The discussion level has sinked again.

In a GT you can win by 1s or 10m, but in the end both are the same. In a sport that runs on attrition it's wise to save energy. It puts other riders guessing on your real strength. Hence you cannot conclude that winning by 10s means that you could have not won by a bigger margin. I recall that only in the last three Tours have the differences been huge. The usual in La Vuelta and in Il Giro is for seconds or a couple of minutes.

Well, no, it's not the same. The TdF 2020 is a perfect example of this. If you don't destroy your opponent when the chance is there, a little bad luck/bad day can very quickly cost you the win. That is why it's a dangerous game.

When assessing the strength of riders for all our little comparison discussions I would argue a 10 min win will always weight more, as it's something tangible, not guess work.

 

[pablohidalgo7]

Yes, and like i said, the difference between Valverde and Roglic on that Vuelta wasn't that different in terms of climbing level, even if i confused Valverde (it's been almost 5 years) with Pogacar on los machucos.

Roglic was 43 seconds stronger than Valverde in the mountains on that Vuelta. 27 s on los machucos and 16 s on alto de la cubilla.

Well, Roglic and Kuss were 50 second behind due to the crash and standstill in Stage 9 and Roglic managed to bridge to Valverde at the end, he also had a loss in the TTT that he had to recover. In addition, after the ITT Roglic had such a difference that he limited to defending himself against each other with ease, there were constant attacks in many stages in which he first went a few meters with one rival and then with another, if he had needed it, I see it quite clearly that he could have gained more time on Valverde, although in favor of the Murcian it must be said that he produced several of the best numbers of his career in terms of w/kg

 

[Bolder]

In theory, bar incident, Thomas shall be at 100%, so at what minimal percentage does Pog need to win? 75? 85? Risky business. Of course, Pog will be nearly in top shape, or else why go for the win? Otherwise it's a wasted GT that would have been better not to start. Anything less than a Giro win, would not justify the sacrifice he will make not to prepare for the Tour optimally. Ergo, unless they are stupid, Pog will go in firing on all cylinders.

Absolutely. He's not going to take a chance on going in too undercooked. The real question is how much of a lead he csn build and whether that will let him take it relatively easy or will he have to fight till the end.

 

[Elos Anjos]

Well, no, it's not the same. The TdF 2020 is a perfect example of this. If you don't destroy your opponent when the chance is there, a little bad luck/bad day can very quickly cost you the win. That is why it's a dangerous game.

When assessing the strength of riders for all our little comparison discussions I would argue a 10 min win will always weight more, as it's something tangible, not guess work.

Of course you can say that in hindsight. The chance of having a really bad day would also increase if Roglic would go over himself before, i.e., to wide his gap. RIders never know for certain if they will pay for their efforts in the day after.

 

[Extinction]

Absolutely. He's not going to take a chance on going in too undercooked. The real question is how much of a lead he csn build and whether that will let him take it relatively easy or will he have to fight till the end.

Well, it's a "light" Giro and, knowing how things work in Italy, they designed it that way so he would come (with how much of a starter's fee, who knows?). They have likely done this, so he would feel able to carry top form through the Tour.

 

[Cookster15]

Well, it's a "light" Giro and, knowing how things work in Italy, they designed it that way so he would come (with how much of a starter's fee, who knows?). They have likely done this, so he would feel able to carry top form through the Tour.

Pogacar's main GC rival at the Giro looks like Geraint Thomas who turns 38 before the end of the Giro. So Pog has a "light" Giro parcours and light competition. But he will still have to train and race smart to preserve form for the Tour and a fresh Vingegaard.

UAE also look strong on paper, so maybe that could be crucial in Pogacar making it through the Giro without cooking himself (like Contador 2011) ? But there are still many "ifs buts and maybes".

 

[Extinction]

Pogacar's main GC rival at the Giro looks like Geraint Thomas turns 38 before the and of the Giro. So Pog has a "light" Giro parcours and light competition. But he will still have to train and race smart to preserve form for the Tour and a fresh Vingegaard.

UAE also look strong on paper, so maybe that could be crucial in Pogacar making it through the Giro without cooking himself (like Contador 2011) ? But there are still many "ifs buts and maybes".

It's a given he'll have to get everything just right. In today's cycling, performance science has become so sophisticated that he should be well advised on what to do. The problem is Vingegaard, who has reached peaks Pog has had no answer for. And the Dane is all in for Tour. It will thus be interesting to see how it all plays out.