It's a given he'll have to get everything just right. In today's cycling, performance science has become so sophisticated that he should be well advised on what to do. The problem is Vingegaard, who has reached peaks Pog has had no answer for. And the Dane is all in for Tour. It will thus be interesting to see how it all plays out.
With or without the Giro, Skeletor is the main problem. But Giro in Pog's legs surely doesn't look like maximizing performance in July. It's about winning a GT again after almost 3 years and have less pressure to win the Tour. If Pog feels well after the Giro he'll go for it at the Tour (possibly riding more freely and taking more risks than usually) but winning it would probably require some favourable circumstances (which can happen ofc).