Teams & Riders Tadej Pogačar discussion thread

[AmRacer]

Then I don't agree with Bruyneel. At 85% of capacity he'd theoretically have to dig deep to win, whereas at 100% of capacity it could be a walk in the park to take the pink.

I guess it comes down to what you consider more risky, being less than optimal and chance coming through wrecked or building for a peak in France, or being optimal and coming through fresher, but not being to maintain condition in July?

Yet, this is the very reason nobody has done the double successfully since Pantani, and why so few have ever been successful at all.

Pog will of course be near 100 percent at the Giro, but he only need to use 85 percent to win.

 

[acm]

Certainly i don't live in a world where Roglic's climbing level is closer or at the same level of Pogacar and specially Vingegaard.

Who said anything about Pogi or Vingegaard? You wrote that he was closer to 100% than 79%. That is bs, especially if you would know how injured he was after stage 11. And don't even get me started on his shoulder surgery and his inability to train TT. When you take all that into account, you can't be near 100%. But yeah, I guess it's easier just to write some numbers that suit you.

 

[Extinction]

Pog will of course be near 100 percent at the Giro, but he only need to use 85 percent win.

I'll agree with that, but this still poses the question of whether or not he can hold his top condition in July. Herein lies the dilemma.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Roglič was definitely above 790‰ the one day that really mattered.

 

[Netserk]

Vuelta 2019

Best climbing performance on Santiago de acebo and los machucos but he couldn't never drop Valverde, his climbing level on the Vuelta 2019 was similar to Valverde's climbing level.

He just won one stage (the ITT).

He wins the Vuelta 2023 with an advantage of 2 min and 33 s to Valverde. Valverde lost to Roglic 1 min and 38 s in the ITT and 16 s in the TT. If we ass 1 min and 38 with 16 s, we have 1 min and 54 seconds. So Roglic during that Vuelta was just "39 seconds" stronger in the mountains if we compare with valverde, and probably these seconds could had be "bonus seconds".

Did you watch the race?

 

[Froome]

Did you watch the race?

Yes, and like i said, the difference between Valverde and Roglic on that Vuelta wasn't that different in terms of climbing level, even if i confused Valverde (it's been almost 5 years) with Pogacar on los machucos.

Roglic was 43 seconds stronger than Valverde in the mountains on that Vuelta. 27 s on los machucos and 16 s on alto de la cubilla.

 

[Elos Anjos]

The discussion level has sunk again.

In a GT you can win by 1s or 10m, but in the end both are the same. In a sport that runs on attrition it's wise to save energy. It puts other riders guessing on your real strength. Hence you cannot conclude that winning by 10s means that you could have not won by a bigger margin. I recall that only in the last three Tours have the differences been huge. The usual in La Vuelta and in Il Giro is for seconds or a couple of minutes.

 

[kn0s]

The discussion level has sinked again.

In a GT you can win by 1s or 10m, but in the end both are the same. In a sport that runs on attrition it's wise to save energy. It puts other riders guessing on your real strength. Hence you cannot conclude that winning by 10s means that you could have not won by a bigger margin. I recall that only in the last three Tours have the differences been huge. The usual in La Vuelta and in Il Giro is for seconds or a couple of minutes.

Well, no, it's not the same. The TdF 2020 is a perfect example of this. If you don't destroy your opponent when the chance is there, a little bad luck/bad day can very quickly cost you the win. That is why it's a dangerous game.

When assessing the strength of riders for all our little comparison discussions I would argue a 10 min win will always weight more, as it's something tangible, not guess work.

 

[pablohidalgo7]

Yes, and like i said, the difference between Valverde and Roglic on that Vuelta wasn't that different in terms of climbing level, even if i confused Valverde (it's been almost 5 years) with Pogacar on los machucos.

Roglic was 43 seconds stronger than Valverde in the mountains on that Vuelta. 27 s on los machucos and 16 s on alto de la cubilla.

Well, Roglic and Kuss were 50 second behind due to the crash and standstill in Stage 9 and Roglic managed to bridge to Valverde at the end, he also had a loss in the TTT that he had to recover. In addition, after the ITT Roglic had such a difference that he limited to defending himself against each other with ease, there were constant attacks in many stages in which he first went a few meters with one rival and then with another, if he had needed it, I see it quite clearly that he could have gained more time on Valverde, although in favor of the Murcian it must be said that he produced several of the best numbers of his career in terms of w/kg

 

[Bolder]

In theory, bar incident, Thomas shall be at 100%, so at what minimal percentage does Pog need to win? 75? 85? Risky business. Of course, Pog will be nearly in top shape, or else why go for the win? Otherwise it's a wasted GT that would have been better not to start. Anything less than a Giro win, would not justify the sacrifice he will make not to prepare for the Tour optimally. Ergo, unless they are stupid, Pog will go in firing on all cylinders.

Absolutely. He's not going to take a chance on going in too undercooked. The real question is how much of a lead he csn build and whether that will let him take it relatively easy or will he have to fight till the end.

 

[Elos Anjos]

Well, no, it's not the same. The TdF 2020 is a perfect example of this. If you don't destroy your opponent when the chance is there, a little bad luck/bad day can very quickly cost you the win. That is why it's a dangerous game.

When assessing the strength of riders for all our little comparison discussions I would argue a 10 min win will always weight more, as it's something tangible, not guess work.

Of course you can say that in hindsight. The chance of having a really bad day would also increase if Roglic would go over himself before, i.e., to wide his gap. RIders never know for certain if they will pay for their efforts in the day after.

 

[Extinction]

Absolutely. He's not going to take a chance on going in too undercooked. The real question is how much of a lead he csn build and whether that will let him take it relatively easy or will he have to fight till the end.

Well, it's a "light" Giro and, knowing how things work in Italy, they designed it that way so he would come (with how much of a starter's fee, who knows?). They have likely done this, so he would feel able to carry top form through the Tour.

 

[Cookster15]

Well, it's a "light" Giro and, knowing how things work in Italy, they designed it that way so he would come (with how much of a starter's fee, who knows?). They have likely done this, so he would feel able to carry top form through the Tour.

Pogacar's main GC rival at the Giro looks like Geraint Thomas who turns 38 before the end of the Giro. So Pog has a "light" Giro parcours and light competition. But he will still have to train and race smart to preserve form for the Tour and a fresh Vingegaard.

UAE also look strong on paper, so maybe that could be crucial in Pogacar making it through the Giro without cooking himself (like Contador 2011) ? But there are still many "ifs buts and maybes".

 

[Extinction]

Pogacar's main GC rival at the Giro looks like Geraint Thomas turns 38 before the and of the Giro. So Pog has a "light" Giro parcours and light competition. But he will still have to train and race smart to preserve form for the Tour and a fresh Vingegaard.

UAE also look strong on paper, so maybe that could be crucial in Pogacar making it through the Giro without cooking himself (like Contador 2011) ? But there are still many "ifs buts and maybes".

It's a given he'll have to get everything just right. In today's cycling, performance science has become so sophisticated that he should be well advised on what to do. The problem is Vingegaard, who has reached peaks Pog has had no answer for. And the Dane is all in for Tour. It will thus be interesting to see how it all plays out.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

It's a given he'll have to get everything just right. In today's cycling, performance science has become so sophisticated that he should be well advised on what to do. The problem is Vingegaard, who has reached peaks Pog has had no answer for. And the Dane is all in for Tour. It will thus be interesting to see how it all plays out.

With or without the Giro, Skeletor is the main problem. But Giro in Pog's legs surely doesn't look like maximizing performance in July. It's about winning a GT again after almost 3 years and have less pressure to win the Tour. If Pog feels well after the Giro he'll go for it at the Tour (possibly riding more freely and taking more risks than usually) but winning it would probably require some favourable circumstances (which can happen ofc).

 

[Extinction]

With or without the Giro, Skeletor is the main problem. But Giro in Pog's legs surely doesn't look like maximizing performance in July. It's about winning a GT again after almost 3 years and have less pressure to win the Tour. If Pog feels well after the Giro he'll go for it at the Tour (possibly riding more freely and taking more risks than usually) but winning it would probably require some favourable circumstances (which can happen ofc).

Agreed. It's a good moment for the sport. Nobody would have thought that a predestined Belgian wonder-boy, would have had to contend with a Slovenian phenomenon who wins the Tour at 21 (just after a Colombian Messi won it at 22), to then have all plans overturned, because a Danish fish-packer showed up. It's sensational.

 

[Extinction]

Pogacar's main GC rival at the Giro looks like Geraint Thomas turns 38 before the and of the Giro. So Pog has a "light" Giro parcours and light competition. But he will still have to train and race smart to preserve form for the Tour and a fresh Vingegaard.

UAE also look strong on paper, so maybe that could be crucial in Pogacar making it through the Giro without cooking himself (like Contador 2011) ? But there are still many "ifs buts and maybes".

As far as contenders are concerned, I'm interested to see if Nairo can reach top mountain shape and what this means. The TTs, however, will surely be his Achille's heel.

 

[Lequack]

Riding with Carlos Sainz, the F1 driver

https://twitter.com/x/status/1754265867594944777

View: https://twitter.com/opaisdociclismo/status/1754265867594944777?s=20

 

[Peyroteo94]

Riding with Carlos Sainz, the F1 driver

https://twitter.com/x/status/1754265867594944777

View: https://twitter.com/opaisdociclismo/status/1754265867594944777?s=20

This guy is a phenomenon on and off the bike. He is really the people's champion.

 

[Froome]

Agreed. It's a good moment for the sport. Nobody would have thought that a predestined Belgian wonder-boy, would have had to contend with a Slovenian phenomenon who wins the Tour at 21 (just after a Colombian Messi won it at 22), to then have all plans overturned, because a Danish fish-packer showed up. It's sensational.

The danish fish-packer showed up much earlier than Pogacar and Remco evenepoel.

The danish fish-packer won in 2015 on Alpe d'huez 😀

 

[Lequack]

Colnago promo for their new gravel bike

https://twitter.com/x/status/1758065603737182278

View: https://twitter.com/Colnagoworld/status/1758065603737182278?s=20

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Any news about Teddy? He hasn't been active recently regarding interviews etc. It's only 6 days till his season start in SB and the peleton guys are already shaking in their boots!

 

[scribers]

I read this morning Vingo is the greatest GT rider of a generation and is only chasing legends from other eras at this point.

Maybe pogi can take notice

 

[Salvarani]

Any news about Teddy? He hasn't been active recently regarding interviews etc. It's only 6 days till his season start in SB and the peleton guys are already shaking in their boots!

Very mysterious.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Any news about Teddy? He hasn't been active recently regarding interviews etc. It's only 6 days till his season start in SB and the peleton guys are already shaking in their boots!

I think he's getting married in secret after seeing how many extra watts that's given Vingegaard.