Teams & Riders Tadej Pogačar discussion thread

[CyclistAbi]

Observing the individual performance of UAE riders, Pogačar could cope with the favorites on most stages, Aru could not. Regarding the last race they undertook. In addition there are some individual riders capable of performing good. If the decisions will be right, they can form a decent team and build on that.

 

[geisterhome]

What are u guys thinking, has he peaked or will see some improvment from him the next few years?

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

What are u guys thinking, has he peaked or will see some improvment from him the next few years?

I think he'll improve, but difficult to predict how much margin he still has.

 

[JosephK]

What are u guys thinking, has he peaked or will see some improvment from him the next few years?

I think he'll continue to improve. More grand tour podiums are likely. Will he win a grand tour? I think it's possible.

 

[perico]

You are correct but that wasn't the point. My point was he can be very good also on real mountains. As you mentioned Tourmalet (a real mountain), where he was 2nd only a couple of seconds behind Pinot.

In some way he’s like a more talented Voeckler GC wise. Little Tommy could carry himself over the mountains when he found himself in GC contention but it wasn’t pretty. Ala is much more talented and more of a threat of hanging on, but he isn’t going to worry any of the GC favorites as long as he doesn’t have a large buffer because he doesn’t have it over the course of multiple mountain stages.

 

[Oldermanish]

In some way he’s like a more talented Voeckler GC wise. Little Tommy could carry himself over the mountains when he found himself in GC contention but it wasn’t pretty. Ala is much more talented and more of a threat of hanging on, but he isn’t going to worry any of the GC favorites as long as he doesn’t have a large buffer because he doesn’t have it over the course of multiple mountain stages.

This is where the gauging the talent of young riders performing very well now and where their top end is can be difficult. There are a lot of variables like morale maintenance, physical development under extreme work load and, of course, team opportunity. A natural talent that is overtrained will eventually plateau and what they're capable of gets lost. Looking at Bernal, Higuita, Pogacar Evenpoel, etc, they are likely putting huge training blocks in ahead of what their elders attempted (assuming everyone is relatively clean). Some may be compromising long term physical development in the process so we could be seeing their top end now. Some can handle it and are emotionally equipped to do so. Bernal and Pogacar appear to be pretty cool heads. How they handle the physical demands seems equally mature although Tadej has more upside IMO for a long term GC guy. Ineos could use up everything Bernal has and eject him as is their business model. How Egan would handle a step back isn't known nor is his future leaving Ineos. Pogacar made his position and could be a much greater threat a few years out and on a good team. Some of those possibilities are not in his control.
It's the new tradition of handling young riders and we may see a generation exploited and burnt in the process.

 

[CyclistAbi]

In my opinion Pogačar didn't peak yet.

 

[Bonimenier]

In my opinion Pogačar didn't peak yet.

He better has not. Otherwise his second part of the season is pretty weak.

 

[Ranagazoo]

It's crazy to say he's peaked, he's 21 and ridden one full season as a pro. I predict he'll have a grand tour win by the end of next year.

 

[hayneplane]

I would be surprised if we are on this thread in 5 years time still debating if he will win a Grand Tour as I believe he will have answered that question in the affirmative by then.

I think he will win a Vuelta in the next 3 years and possibly a Giro given how well he seems to handle bad weather.

As a GC contender he has a very well rounded and versatile skill set but needs to improve in almost every area to go from chance of 3rd to pre event big favourite.

 

[Red Rick]

Seems highly unlikely he'll win this Tour but it should be a great point for future reference

 

[Gigs_98]

I wrote that I don't expect Pogacar to become the next big thing myself a week ago or so but really that was a pure guess based on gut feeling. Really we have no idea whether he has peaked yet or whether he'll become the 2nd coming of Pantani or what do I know.
The only relevant thing that has happened between his first gt podium and now is a pandemic that could have greatly influenced his performance in the Dauphine. Or maybe it hasn't, we just don't know yet. But what I'm trying to say is that we shouldn't make knee jerk reactions based on a preparation race under the weirdest of circumstances.

 

[Red Rick]

Feel like we have a bit of a discrepancy between how riders are perceived at similar ages and how much is extrapolated, and when the 'he peaked' talks begin. And in general it's so hard to judge man, though I think there's some population trends, etc.

For Pogacar, I don't think doing Strade and MSR was an ideal prep to get a result in the Dauphine.

 

[SHAD0W93]

I think it's hard to gage talent and their room for growth. For all we know this is his peak. Just 10 years ago we were talking about JVDB, Gesink, Crushweak, TGBM, brajkovič, tvg, henao, and uran on if they are going to win GT's or not.
Every 3 or 4 years, especially in GTs there comes new riders that replace the old hyped up ones plus injuries or outside forces. Take Gesink, without his extreme bad luck and health issues could still be competing for GC.

 

[Red Rick]

I think it's hard to gage talent and their room for growth. For all we know this is his peak. Just 10 years ago we were talking about JVDB, Gesink, Crushweak, TGBM, brajkovič, tvg, henao, and uran on if they are going to win GT's or not.
Every 3 or 4 years, especially in GTs there comes new riders that replace the old hyped up ones plus injuries or outside forces. Take Gesink, without his extreme bad luck and health issues could still be competing for GC.

I feel like it often makes much more sense in hindsight if that makes any sense.

I think riders that start out as climbers are much easier to predict cause they don't really have weird transformations. And I think early top level climbing performances and stage outliers might be a better indication than those riders who are consistent early but don't have high level outliers. Similarly, I think decent TTers among climbers tend to get overrated a bit cause without elite climbing chops they're not gonna win anyway, which is probably why only elite TTers turned climbers can suddenly compete for GTs, which is a thing @Gigs_98 was pondering last week.

IMO, Colombians have a tendency to peak early. Woudln't really know why. Maybe it's living at altitude so they woudln't really have an extra step in professionalisation with getting better from their first altitude camps early in their career or some ***. But then they shouldn't perhaps flame out so quickly.

Meanwhile, I wonder if this new generation of younger, brighter talents is due to younger categories being much more effective in scouting and training to a much better standard. Could easily be a lot of talent was run into the ground before.

 

[Eddy Evenepoel]

I think it's hard to gage talent and their room for growth. For all we know this is his peak. Just 10 years ago we were talking about JVDB, Gesink, Crushweak, TGBM, brajkovič, tvg, henao, and uran on if they are going to win GT's or not.

I understand your point, but there are some differences between the guys you mentioned and Pogacar. Nome of them actually reached the GT podium at young age (or won several GT mountain stages). None of them entered the Tour the year they turned 22 as a serious podium contender.

Gesink has great years when he was 22-24, with the peak being 5th at the tour. Uran was 25 that year he was second in Giro. Mollema was 25 that year he finished 4th in the Vuelta. Van den Broeck was 27 the year he became 4th in the Tour. Kruiswijk was 24 when he was 8th in Giro, and then had to wait several years for his next top 10. Van Garderen was 24 when he was 5th in the tour. Henao was 25 when he was 9th in Giro. I don’t remember if Brajkovic scored a top 10 before he was 9th in 2012 TdF, when he was 29 years. He was 27 when he won Dauphine.

All these were significantly older then Pogacar when they had their GT break through. I agree that the hype was big on most of them, but none of them really could be compared to Pogacar when it comes to stand out performances in young age.

IF Pogacar never reaches higher than he already did, he would be most similar to Popovych (podium in giro when he was 23, 5th the following year, but never made it big since) if the young hyped riders I’ve experienced.

 

[hayneplane]

Agree with the last part Red Rick and would expand on it that for a long time promising talents have joined late in a season as a stagiare to get some senior races for a world tour team but in recent years the pre signing apprenticeships have become far more structured with even 1st year juniors getting invited to training camps and even altitude training getting to measure up against the best in the world in a controlled environment.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Pogačar needs to keep adding a bit by bit, and the same can be said for his team, supporting him. For the next two to three years. I don't see on why a GT win would be out of reach.

P.S. Until now he has been doing exactly that, hence no signs of he already peaking. Currently he climbed to No.6 by UCI. And that usually doesn't happen by accident.

 

[SHAD0W93]

I understand your point, but there are some differences between the guys you mentioned and Pogacar. Nome of them actually reached the GT podium at young age (or won several GT mountain stages). None of them entered the Tour the year they turned 22 as a serious podium contender.

Gesink has great years when he was 22-24, with the peak being 5th at the tour. Uran was 25 that year he was second in Giro. Mollema was 25 that year he finished 4th in the Vuelta. Van den Broeck was 27 the year he became 4th in the Tour. Kruiswijk was 24 when he was 8th in Giro, and then had to wait several years for his next top 10. Van Garderen was 24 when he was 5th in the tour. Henao was 25 when he was 9th in Giro. I don’t remember if Brajkovic scored a top 10 before he was 9th in 2012 TdF, when he was 29 years. He was 27 when he won Dauphine.

All these were significantly older then Pogacar when they had their GT break through. I agree that the hype was big on most of them, but none of them really could be compared to Pogacar when it comes to stand out performances in young age.

IF Pogacar never reaches higher than he already did, he would be most similar to Popovych (podium in giro when he was 23, 5th the following year, but never made it big since) if the young hyped riders I’ve experienced.

That was Brajkovic's only top 10. He might have been more hyped in the American media versus others. Another example would be Schleck if he keeps following this path. I hope he can still grow and get better but the odds are against him. Who knows what riders will be here in 3-4 years. I agree with Red Rick that younger talent is being found more easily and better prepared for pros. That higher level could not leave much room for growth besides maturity and brains.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

Didn’t Pogacar just beat Roglic in a TT head on when Roglic was in world beating shape? I think we’ve seen way more evidence that he is a champion in the making that the opposite.

 

[hfgon1]

I am highly impressed from Pogacar since last year. He finished not only on the Vuelta podium he also won the Algarve and the Tour of California. He impressed the whole year and not only at three weeks. He also has a fantastic year till now. He won in Valencia, was 2nd at the UAE Tour and now 4th at the Dauphine. That's highly impressive for his age. Possibly he is not ready to win the tour this year but I see him as a pretty safe bet for a future grand tour winner. What I really like is that he seems to be better and better the harder the road gets. Maybe this Tour is too easy for him.

 

[Red Rick]

I don't quite remember, but I feel none of Brajkovic, VdB, Kruijswijk, Mollema, etc were that hyped. They were kind of treated like potential in the hypothetical they'd make an improvement to a level they'd never shown before. They could hang on for dear life for places, but I don't think that's the sign of a future GT winner. These guys were also pretty much the same generation as Andy Schleck, who had the megahype down locked down tightly.

IIRC, I think the big deal was sort of "yeah Schleck is the best of the lot, but it's Nibs vs Gesink for 2nd place of that cohort".

All in all, I think the most distinctive trait of riders who are hyped but will never break trhough to that level is the total lack of top level performances. And you just can not say that for Pogacar. He's a proven winner from the get go.

 

[Gigs_98]

Well it depends on your definition of top level performance. Pogacar already had a gt more impressive than any of Gesink or Mollema. But he has not yet shown performances that made me think, this is already at the level of a gt winner. I still think his Vuelta mostly looked so great because of the total lack of good competition outside of Roglic.

I still think the comparison with Mas a year earlier is quite good. Mas also had a gt better than any of Gesink or Mollema, but like Pogacar he only achieved what he did because the competition wasn't that great. Now two years later the hype around him has completely died. Maybe it will make a comeback at the Tour but I honestly doubt it.

In fairness, I think Pogacar is better than Mas and argubly the gt podium Pogacar achieved when he was 21 looked even more impressive than the one Mas achieved aged 23 (that long range attack by Pogacar on stage 20, I have to admit, that smelled a bit like greatness). But my point is, those young climbers stop improving very suddenly and the only question is when they do. They might at a higher level than Mollema or Gesink, but just because they get a vuelta podium and a few stage wins they don't automatically have to improve all the way to the ranks of "legendary climber".

 

[Red Rick]

MAL, Quintana, Vuelta Valverde aren't exactly weak, especially on their on days on the stages that suit them. Majka got 6th in both the Giro and Vuelta.

Andorra, Muchacos and Plataforma de Gredos were all top level performances. Outclimbed Quintana in a big mountain stage, climbed with Roglic on the type of climb he absolutely shines at, and then cranked out a 40km solo when everyone was dead. Mas' win was a sprint against MAL, while maybe his best climbing performance was like Oiz finishing with Valverde or something, neither of which are like flying away solo.

I think the only argument against that is 'but Vuelta'.

And I think putting try to backtrack on Pogacar hype now based on a 4th place in a prep race where it's common to be slightly off, he came in off the back of 2 one day races which probably weren't optimal Dauphine prep, and he was flying at the start of the year.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Why are we always discounting Valverde so hard? Only good competition was Roglic? Excuse me, Valverde was a flying in that Vuelta (like always) and Lopez is no slouch either, Quintana fell off, but the level at that Vuelta wasn't that bad and if you can solo away on the last stage of the race like Pogacar, its legit no matter the competition almost. That was an incredible performance, he got nothing awarded, he was just straight up the best rider by far that day which shows signs of a future GT winner for sure.