Pogacar is the clear favorite, but I think this Tour is more unpredictable than last years or better said, you first have to come through the first week (which isn't only about pure strenght) and then there are not that many opportunities to but real time into your opponents until Stage 11 & 12. Even then the Pyrenees are way better for a multi mountain raid in my opinion as they have good launch pads without great valleys. Pogacar maybe strong but it's not optimal for him to go against Jumbo with domestiques left even if he's the strongest.
So you loose 2 Minutes in the Roubaix stage because of bad luck and it could take a long time to take it back. Of course the other way around is also possible (or more likely). Pogacar does the Nibali and the race is basically over without a mountain in the legs. I think his squad ist still not very good when it comes to his domestiques. Majka is a very good one. But Formolo won't be there and he was the second best domestique last year for UAE. Likewise no Almeida. Hirschi, McNulty, Soler, Bennett are ok but not first class neither as mountain domestiques nor for the hilly stuff. Langen and Bjerg are ok for their roles, but not the experienced domestiques for the first week. Therfore they need Trentin as a Road Captain in my eyes. Of course the team will be good and last year it was enough by a mile. I just don't understand why a team like UAE misses out on assembling a top notch team for the Tour. Ineos and Jumbo have the better domestiques or "break-in-case-of emergency" GC options. They have the money to get those kond of guys but they are investing in Ackermann, Hodeg and a bunch of guys that are not really Grand Tour material for a GC Team. Taking in Almeida as the second GC Guy is good for 2022 and 2023 (+maybe adjusting to the multiple GC options trend that seems to be a thing right now...) but let's see how that will work out whenthe next wonder boy in Ayuso iscoming around. Would be good TV if they can't sort it out between the 3 leaders...Long story short: they should pick up a couple of versatile domestiques for GTs like van Baarle, Tratnik or Kelderman (I'm thinking Jumbo there as well) for 2023.