Teams & Riders Tadej Pogačar discussion thread

[Escarabajo]

Is he going to ride all 3 ardennes classics?
How would you rate his chances at Amstel Gold an Fleche Wallone

I don't see anybody challenging him on the Fleche Wallone. He can just go and check a box for the win TBH. better sooner than later.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Is he going to ride all 3 ardennes classics?
How would you rate his chances at Amstel Gold an Fleche Wallone

If he shows there in peak condition, he is obviously the number one favourite to win Amstel. For Fleche, I think he needs to attack before Huy to have a chance.

 

[hayneplane]

If he shows there in peak condition, he is obviously the number one favourite to win Amstel. For Fleche, I think he needs to attack before Huy to have a chance.

For his best chance I agree but he still has the attributes to win on Huy but just hasn’t performed to par there thus far in his career.

 

[Panda Claws]

Vingegaard is Ocaña

 

[Andy schleck]

He should go on vacations. Vingegaard will be hard to beat

I don't know if you are being ironic but for sure it will be difficult to pogacar beat vingegaard.

 

[Amazinmets87]

He already tired competition on the hills prior to Kwaremont and cobbles there are nothing compared to Roubaix. For win in P-R he would have to completely change his body and forget about GC battles in GTs for some time. And i don't see that happening for like 5-6 years, no team would let this happen for sponsor's sake.

Yea, I don't see Roubaix happening until he's 30+ and spent as a GT rider.

 

[houtdffan]

The best grand tour route in 2022 was the Tour france.

you mean the best of the worst

 

[bNator]

I don't know if you are being ironic but for sure it will be difficult to pogacar beat vingegaard.

... and vice versa.

I think we can be sure Pogacar will at least be competitive to a certain extent. He has been on every occasion since 2019. For Vingegaard at this point, who knows if he manages to get into the same crazy form he had last year (he has done it only once so far). And if he doesn't, he stands no chance against Pogacar.

 

[Red Rick]

Everyone has forgotten about Pogacar getting hammered both times he did Fleche?

If he's targeting LBL I don't think he'll fly in Fleche.

 

[Netserk]

Lol, Gigs. It's perfectly normal to discuss one link in the chain of an argument at the time, and that doesn't constitute putting words in your mouth.

This is not a modest statement:

I just don't really see why I shouldn't believe he is currently the best rider in the world on flat cobbles.

Not only do you state that you believe that he is the best rider in the world on flat cobbles, you can't even see any reason for why you should believe otherwise.

Assuming the Gricean Maxims, the implication of his performance on Kwaremont to that of flat cobbles is a necessary condition for your argument. It is thus enough to address that.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Everyone has forgotten about Pogacar getting hammered both times he did Fleche?

If he's targeting LBL I don't think he'll fly in Fleche.

Pogacar can be hammered on Fleche also because of a weaker form. He'll be past his peak. Even though it's a fresh effort (no accumulated fatigue that favours him) I think he would fight for victory with his red hot Flandres form given his uphill explosivity. He'll target Liege (which suits him more) but I'm not certain if he'll be able to produce a great effort there, maybe a short mini-peak (then again, even in suboptimal form he may be able to win in a sprint).

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Everyone has forgotten about Pogacar getting hammered both times he did Fleche?

If he's targeting LBL I don't think he'll fly in Fleche.

Did UAE fill his bidon with booze?

 

[Netserk]

But I too think that he could do okay (so at least top-10) if he where to race Roubaix this week, so without additional specific preparations wrt to weight. In the right circumstances, I think he could possibly even get on the podium.

I think it'd be wise for him to race Roubaix first without tailoring his prep for it, so just to test himself, get some experience and see how well he can do with his current weight. He could have a spring next year where he only races the monuments (so no E3 or Amstel) with the same prep as for this year. I hope he does that, and I think he would still challenge for the win in Liège.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

But I too think that he could do okay (so at least top-10) if he where to race Roubaix this week, so without additional specific preparations wrt to weight. In the right circumstances, I think he could possibly even get on the podium.

I think it'd be wise for him to race Roubaix first without tailoring his prep for it, so just to test himself, get some experience and see how well he can do with his current weight. He could have a spring next year where he only races the monuments (so no E3 or Amstel) with the same prep as for this year. I hope he does that, and I think he would still challenge for the win in Liège.

In the future he could shift his peak forward to focus on all 4 monuments (from San Remo to Liege), instead of crazy form from February. In that scenario he could fit Vuelta in his year (with stage-races later in the season) instead of the Tour. Then again, he may want to do Roubaix and Tour in the same year (then probably rest and no Liege afterwards).

 

[Netserk]

In the future he could shift his peak forward to focus on all 4 monuments (from San Remo to Liege), instead of crazy form from February. In that scenario he could fit Vuelta in his year (with stage-races later in the season) instead of the Tour. Then again, he may want to do Roubaix and Tour in the same year (then probably rest and no Liege afterwards).

I don't see how it would be too much to race Roubaix (in his current condition), Liège and the Tour in the same season.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

I don't see how it would be too much to race Roubaix (in his current condition), Liège and the Tour in the same season.

He can but It's about form cycles. If he does Roubaix and Liege with his current program his will likely be post-peak and tired from Roubaix in Ardennes.
If he shifts his peak forward more (to redline the whole April) then peaking again for the Tour will be more difficult.

 

[Netserk]

He can but It's about form cycles. If he does Roubaix and Liege with his current program his will likely be post-peak and tired from Roubaix in Ardennes.
If he shifts his peak forward more (to redline the whole April) then peaking again for the Tour will be more difficult.

Do you really think doing Roubaix instead of Amstel and Flèche this year would have any impact on his Tour form? It doesn't change the period in which he has to be in top form one bit, and it's less race mileage.

Roubaix is a hard race, but for July I don't think it will be felt any more than Ronde.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Do you really think doing Roubaix instead of Amstel and Flèche this year would have any impact on his Tour form? It doesn't change the period in which he has to be in top form one bit, and it's less race mileage.

It will impact Liege for sure. Other aspect is muscle mass - if he needs 2-3 kilos more to win Roubaix then peaking for the Tour in the same year will be tricky (if there's a super-skinny mountain goat like Vinge).

 

[Netserk]

It will impact Liege for sure. Other aspect is muscle mass - if he needs 2-3 kilos more to win Roubaix then peaking for the Tour in the same year will be tricky (if there's a super-skinny mountain goat like Vinge).

Who are you arguing with? I explicitly wrote about him doing Roubaix in his current condition with his current weight. No, I don't think that will impact Liège much if he skips Amstel and Flèche.

 

[Red Rick]

I don't see how it would be too much to race Roubaix (in his current condition), Liège and the Tour in the same season.

Yeah I agree Pogacar should try Roubaix asap even before adding weight for it. I'm not a huge believer it is that mandatory, even if it helps. I also think the main deterrent should be how much hard racing he can do in the spring season before he accumulates too much fatigue and his form starts to drop.

I don't see the massive issue with gaining a few kg for PR if he still focuses on the Tour de France. It's more problematic that it will hurt him in the entire rest of the spring, including in Sanremo which he also still needs to tick off.

 

[Andy schleck]

... and vice versa.

I think we can be sure Pogacar will at least be competitive to a certain extent. He has been on every occasion since 2019. For Vingegaard at this point, who knows if he manages to get into the same crazy form he had last year (he has done it only once so far). And if he doesn't, he stands no chance against Pogacar.

Off course, like it was very difficult to pogacar, to beat van der poel on sunday.

 

[ice&fire]

Everyone has forgotten about Pogacar getting hammered both times he did Fleche?

If he's targeting LBL I don't think he'll fly in Fleche.

I'll be disappointed if he can't equal Valverde here.

 

[Andy schleck]

I

Do you really think doing Roubaix instead of Amstel and Flèche this year would have any impact on his Tour form? It doesn't change the period in which he has to be in top form one bit, and it's less race mileage.

Roubaix is a hard race, but for July I don't think it will be felt any more than Ronde.

I don't think doing roubaix instead of amstel gold race would have impact on his tour form. The Tour is almost three monts after roubaix, and he will going to the tour with 25 days of racing. That's normal.

 

[Gigs_98]

Lol, Gigs. It's perfectly normal to discuss one link in the chain of an argument at the time, and that doesn't constitute putting words in your mouth.

This is not a modest statement:

Not only do you state that you believe that he is the best rider in the world on flat cobbles, you can't even see any reason for why you should believe otherwise.

Assuming the Gricean Maxims, the implication of his performance on Kwaremont to that of flat cobbles is a necessary condition for your argument. It is thus enough to address that.

In fact I would have accepted an address of my arguments without even referencing Gricean Maxims.

But no, seriously, I think it's perfectly fine to disagree with the strength of my arguments. It's just that I made two and it was implied only one of them was already enough to make me think Pogacar would be the strongest rider in PR. Does that constitute "putting words in my mouth"? I don't know, but it certainly doesn't feel outrageous to me to call it that.

Concerning my wording in your quote, yeah, whatever. I definitely didn't purposely phrase it like that to show my certainty. But also I really don't think a discussion about semantics will get us anywhere. I was annyoed about a reply but that's it. I really didn't want this to become a prolonged discussion about who said what.

 

[Red Rick]

In fact I would have accepted an address of my arguments without even referencing Gricean Maxims.

But no, seriously, I think it's perfectly fine to disagree with the strength of my arguments. It's just that I made two and it was implied only one of them was already enough to make me think Pogacar would be the strongest rider in PR. Does that constitute "putting words in my mouth"? I don't know, but it certainly doesn't feel outrageous to me to call it that.

Concerning my wording in your quote, yeah, whatever. I definitely didn't purposely phrase it like that to show my certainty. But also I really don't think a discussion about semantics will get us anywhere. I was annyoed about a reply but that's it. I really didn't want this to become a prolonged discussion about who said what.

I forgot to address this, but how was the race as good as it was while you were watching