Teams & Riders Tadej Pogačar discussion thread

[Nick2413]

I think the weather now needs to be considered. When Pog won on Cauterets it was 21C. It looks like it will be over 30C on Puy de Dôme? Does this tip the tables?

I don’t know what to think anymore. I think heat can hurt either of them and just depends who is stronger on a given stage.

Dome is like a harder version of Marie Blanque which logically would favor Vingegaard but then it seemed stage 6 was harder overall (3 min gap over GC guys vs 1 min gap on MB, plus multiple JV leadouts) and done under more fatigue but Pog was stronger. This being a unipuerto stage might help Pog traditionally but things seem to be a little backwards right now.

 

[Rackham]

This is just my opinion (I could be entirely wrong, obviously) but there's other factors to consider as well, like Pogačar coming into the Tour undercooked & having a difficult first day in the mountains. It happens. There's also the possibility Vingegaard has been at his peak for a little while now (since the Dauphiné) & doesn't exactly have much room for improvement in this Tour.

Then there's other stuff completely irrespective of climb profiles & weather, i.e. like which rider expends the most energy during the stage & sets himself up for a bit of a drop on the final climb. On Thursday, that was Vingegaard who did all the attacking & pulling on the Tourmalet (a reverse of last year's Granon stage when it was Pog who did the pulling on Galibier).

Honestly, from my chair here there's no scientific method of determining which climb suits which rider better or 'who' performs better in which type of weather, i.e. there's just form levels. And these can change on a stage to stage basis as well.

If Pog rides smart on Sunday & doesn't put himself in the wind, he can stay (at the very least) with Vingegaard on Puy-de-Dôme.

 

[Pantani_lives]

It's hard to come up with a good explanation why he was so much better on Thursday than on Wednesday. Part of it was due to clever racing: riding defensively until the final 3 km; exploiting Jumbo's overconfidence. Part of it was the nature of the final climb: middle altitude, only steep towards the end. His uphill explosiveness was a factor, but he kept gaining time in the final km.

The Puy de Dome will tell a lot, even if the battle is limited to the final 4 km. In theory the climb should suit him, but I also thought that of the Marie Blanque.

In the end it doesn't matter, because a duel in the Tour is bound to be decided by a crash or some other form of bad luck.

 

[Peyroteo94]

I have a lot of doubts. Somehow I think his win on Cauterets come from a lot of anger and passion. A little bit like Froome on Zoncolan. I really think he doesn't have the legs to win the Tour and he will probably lose a minute on puy de dome.
Hope to be wrong.

 

[Rackham]

I have a lot of doubts. Somehow I think his win on Cauterets come from a lot of anger and passion. A little bit like Froome on Zoncolan. I really think he doesn't have the legs to win the Tour and he will probably lose a minute on puy de dome.
Hope to be wrong.

I don't think Pog follows on Tourmalet without super form.

Jumbo didn't expect him to follow & they clearly believed Vingegaard was stronger. The data we've seen floating around since also confirms Vinge did an absolutely massive attack on Tourmalet in terms of numbers which Jumbo probably thought would be sufficient enough to drop Pog.

So there's more to Pog's performance than anger & passion. It was Vingegaard who started to slow on Cauterets because by that point he'd spent everything on Tourmalet (this even allowed Kwiatkowski to roll back the years for a few hundred meters); so if there's concern for Pog's level after Wednesday, I believe Jumbo & Vinge shouldn't be overly confident either after Thursday.

They basically found Vingegaard's limits. So did Pog & UAE.

 

[Trofonios]

I think Pog will be fine on Puy de Dome. Like many have pointed: given how strong Pog was on stage 6 his "wekaness" on Marie Blanque was probably more due to a long race break - first real big effort in two months - than not being in top shape. If the stage was harder before Puy de Dome, had a couple of big mountains in it, then I might have given Vingegaard the edge on Puy de Dome. But as it is now, Pog should be relatively fresh when they enter Puy de Dome, and then it will be hard for Vingegaard to ride away from Pog on a 20 minute effort. Could the heat play a factor, if the stage was harder yes, but now, I doubt it.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Impossible to ride like Pog did on anger and frustration. He looked like a greek god on Cauterets, high cadence, breathing through his nose, looking around surveying the situation, on top of the pedals.. in Danish, we would say he has a kattepottetråd. Well, I don't even know if thats a word, but Rolf Sørensen said so and its a perfect way to describe his state on the last climb. He was going easy until his attack, and you could feel it miles away. Mind you, that was after an insane 15 min performance on Tourmalet which in theory should suit Vingegaard more.

I have a hard time seeing Vinge drop Pogacar on Puy de Dome as well. I think that stage is Pog's to lose, and I'd expect UAE to try to set him up for a legendary stage win and some bonus seconds. Maybe even a 1-2 km attack.

 

[Lorzenz08]

This is just my opinion (I could be entirely wrong, obviously) but there's other factors to consider as well, like Pogačar coming into the Tour undercooked & having a difficult first day in the mountains. It happens. There's also the possibility Vingegaard has been at his peak for a little while now (since the Dauphiné) & doesn't exactly have much room for improvement in this Tour.

Then there's other stuff completely irrespective of climb profiles & weather, i.e. like which rider expends the most energy during the stage & sets himself up for a bit of a drop on the final climb. On Thursday, that was Vingegaard who did all the attacking & pulling on the Tourmalet (a reverse of last year's Granon stage when it was Pog who did the pulling on Galibier).

Honestly, from my chair here there's no scientific method of determining which climb suits which rider better or 'who' performs better in which type of weather, i.e. there's just form levels. And these can change on a stage to stage basis as well.

If Pog rides smart on Sunday & doesn't put himself in the wind, he can stay (at the very least) with Vingegaard on Puy-de-Dôme.

I agree.

Vingegaard did the pulling starting at the at the Tourmalet because Jumbo thought he could go away like in stage 5. Maintain the lead in the descent and the flat, and then take again more time in the last climb.
Even when it didn't happen in the Tourmalet,during the descent in the radio Jumbo were saying " Good job, you put Pog is at his limit, next climb he will crack for sure".


Now however they have seen that it didn't happen, and that Pogi is very strong. So I think from now on, they are going to be much more conservative, setting a fast tempo, and Vingo trying to attack in the final few kms of the climb. If Pogi doesn't attack before.

 

[Elos Anjos]

I have a lot of doubts. Somehow I think his win on Cauterets come from a lot of anger and passion. A little bit like Froome on Zoncolan. I really think he doesn't have the legs to win the Tour and he will probably lose a minute on puy de dome.
Hope to be wrong.

I always find approaches based on anime to be the most plausible.

 

[veganrob]

Despite Vingegaard being in the lead, I think it is JV that now has to reconsider its tactics. They thought they would break Pogi early on and it didn't happen. I was worried about his condition and hope he would ride himself into shape by the third week. Tables are somewhat turned. Sunday will be interesting. Don't know if we'll see the fireworks of the first 6 stages. It's been crazy fun so far.

 

[Miha81]

They actually believed he is as good as gone.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1677006351065571341

View: https://twitter.com/charlottebikech/status/1677006351065571341?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1677006351065571341%7Ctwgr%5Eeb83ee1081f15167921435d77559d7d598d98e3c%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zurnal24.si%2Fsport%2Fkolesarstvo%2Fneverjetno-kaj-je-jumbo-visma-po-radijski-zvezi-govorila-vingegaardu-408706

 

[pelotonIQ]

It is a unipuerto stage and this favors Pogi, however I think he will be dropped specially with this hot weather.

Everytime you predict something the opposite happens.

Looks good for Poga

 

[Tonton]

The table is set, before rest day, no holding back. No past-performance data. It will come down to the real stuff and Tadej has plenty of it.

 

[Peyroteo94]

This is looking good!! He has the upper hand now. And I think he will take time on Vinge in the TT. GO GO Tadej!

 

[Berniece]

Wasn’t a big gap but it was also not that hard of a day. Well raced, he’s in a good position to win the TDF. 2 more weeks to go though

 

[Peyroteo94]

He looks fresher than Vingegaard. He looks way more cautious. He has Adam Yates to helping earning bonus seconds and he will definetly benefit from the fight for third place.

 

[Eddy Evenepoel]

Im starting to expect an absolute outstanding TT now from Pogi.

 

[Miha81]

He looks strong

 

[solo80k]

Headwind narrowed the gap IMO. Pogi looking stronger than Jonas right now. It's not the first time Jumbo drops like a stone.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Im starting to expect an absolute outstanding TT now from Pogi.

If the TT was tomorrow, he would gain 20/30 seconds to Vingegaard.

 

[EddyMazzoleni]

If the TT was tomorrow, he would gain 20/30 seconds to Vingegaard.

I don't think so, they were really close today, and also Vingegaard is a way more agressive and skilled bike handler, so if the TT as some technical section he can reduce the gap even if he has less power.

 

[Salvarani]

The momentum has swung in favor of Pog, but Vinge still holds the lead.

Twice he has been able to drop Vinge now, only by seconds but the knock-out may come later.

Vinge won the first round, but Pog has taken the second and third.

 

[tobydawq]

This was not supposed to be a stage where Vingegaard would lose out to Pogi - especially considering what happened on Marie Blanque.

He really has to hope a supposedly superior recovery will help him turn the tables but right now it looks like Pogacar has the cards on his hand.

 

[theyoungest]

This was not supposed to be a stage where Vingegaard would lose out to Pogi - especially considering what happened on Marie Blanque.

He really has to hope a supposedly superior recovery will help him turn the tables but right now it looks like Pogacar has the cards on his hand.

I think we can throw normal expectations out of the window, there is no logic to what's happening. Which makes it exciting, of course.

Vingegaard always looks rather pale, but Pogi has made him look white as a sheet these last couple of stages. Still, on paper it's probably a win for Vingegaard that he's ahead after one week. In reality it doesn't look that way though.

 

[Trofonios]

Last year Pog didn't really ride smart all the time, spent a lot of extra energy, probably thinking he would break Vingegaard and maybe underestimating Vingegaard a bit.

So far he has ridden smarter. On both stage 6 and 9 he just followed wheel and attacked hard in the end. When he can ride like this he is unstoppable I think. His attacks lasting 4-5 minutes are almost impossible to follow.

The tacit should now be clear: follow wheel and do a hard attack in the end, and also see to it that bonus seconds are up for grabs. Do that and he will eat up Vingegaards advantage and eventually force Vingegaard to be more aggressive, which will suit Pog just fine.