I agree UAE is looking laser focused this year. Pogacar remaining really calm after stage 6 and yesterday is a great sign to me. Jumbo still has the better team but UAE looks like a better oiled machine compared to last year.
I think the key for Pogacar will be the TT. As much as I love attacking Pog, the place where he has a really clear edge over Vingegaard is his sprint. So even if he there is a stalemate in the mountains from now on he should be able to steal a few seconds here and there, and if he has a great TT that's all he will need. I'm fairly confident, as he has obviously done extremely well in hilly TT's with an uphill finish before but yeah, if he has a dominant performance there I actually think he will win the Tour.
Surely the ITT is the turning point along with Joux Plane and Mont Blanc *, while i think Grand Colombier will be raced conservatibely like 2020.
Those 2 stage wil set up how Loze is raced, and i think Pogi can benefit massively from beeing in the lead and just having to defend on that climb. However, i don't think the gap between the two in the ITT will be massive.
* Looks to me like the last 2 climb in quick succession and the profiles of said climbs really suit Pogacar, so i would not be surprised if he had circled this stage has the one where to go on an all out attack to grab the jersey, especially considering the next day is a rest day. But of course he has to survive the climb and the descent of the Joux Plane the day before, which is no easy feat when you have Vinge to follow.