Teams & Riders Tadej Pogačar discussion thread

[CyclistAbi]

So week three is here. Next two stages likely deciding this years overall winner. We'll see.

 

[Rechtschreibfehler]

My guess as to why the sting was a bit off Pogi yesterday in his battle with Jonas is due to a distance of 180k compared to other mountain stages 145-160k short races. I think Jonas would've had the upper hand yesterday if stage has been +200k of mountains.
Not solely due to the stage length itself, but mainly due to maybe just a tad better between-stages recovery, of which is essential so deep into the race.

As I've said before, I don't really buy into that theory of long and hard hurts Pogacar. So I've had another look at stage results and there only has been one stage close to 200km in the third week in the mountains he's done. That was the stage 20 of the 2019 Vuelta. So also a bit long ago but nonetheless. It had 4559m of elevation at 190km. Pogacar won by 1:32 over Valverde and Majka to make the podium in Madrid.
The Ventoux stage in which Vingegaard distanced Pog a little on the climb (mind that with 5+ minutes advantage in GC Pogacar had no need to go all out to follow him) was nearly 200km long and had 4671m elevation, yet in the end no time loss occured. That was stage 11 though.
As the stages on which Pogacar lost big time to Vingegaard were short stages, it seems to me, the theory rest on the assumption that Vingegaards recovery is better day to day. That might be true, but it might as well not be true.
What we do know for certain on the other hand, is that Pogacar, outside of stage races, excells at long and hard efforts, on basically whatever kind of profile you offer him with. Inside stages races there isn't so much data but he still won a hard mountain stage at Tirreno-Adriatico 2022 beating Vingegaard by a minute and an uphill sprint in stage 6 of that years tour, in stages longer than 200km.
So none of that means that Vingegaard can't be better at these efforts, but it doesn't really show up in his palmares, as the longest he's ever won in a stage race was this years Dauphine stage 5 with 191km, but that was a rather impressive victory. The longest in a one day race was also about 191km.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Tomorrow and wednesday will have a hot weather?

 

[topcat]

Please tick yes or no:
Yes No
Pog suffers in hot weather
Pog suffers at altitude
Pog suffers with his sunglasses on
Pog suffers if there’s a hard pace
Jumbo pace hard so that Vinnie will attack
Vinnie will bridge to WvA
Jumbo have Pog’s data
Pog and Vinnie are the same
Castles, marital status and linguistics will decide the tour
Tour foumites will not disappear like Armstrong after stage 21

If you answered No to every question, bravo, you’re ready to be a forum DS

 

[Trofonios]

As the stages on which Pogacar lost big time to Vingegaard were short stages, it seems to me, the theory rest on the assumption that Vingegaards recovery is better day to day.

I'm certain this is what TJV thinks. Long or short hard stages might not matter that much. If Vingegaard's restitution is a little bit better then he will have an advantage in the third week. If he actually has better restitution we really don't know as you say. TJV knows however that Vinge has great restitution. In 2021 Vinge was dropped two times by Pog in the first half of the tour but in the second part Pog never really dropped Vinge when he attacked. Vinge also rode a stellar TT in stage 20 both 2021 and 2022 which is one of many signs he recovers well.

Pog can handle long and hard stages deep into a grand tour as you show, and he is surely better than almost any GC rider out there.
Question is if he compared to Vingegaard has a slight disadvantage or not. Guess we will see this week.

 

[Zoetemelk-fan]

As I've said before, I don't really buy into that theory of long and hard hurts Pogacar. So I've had another look at stage results and there only has been one stage close to 200km in the third week in the mountains he's done. That was the stage 20 of the 2019 Vuelta. So also a bit long ago but nonetheless. It had 4559m of elevation at 190km. Pogacar won by 1:32 over Valverde and Majka to make the podium in Madrid.
The Ventoux stage in which Vingegaard distanced Pog a little on the climb (mind that with 5+ minutes advantage in GC Pogacar had no need to go all out to follow him) was nearly 200km long and had 4671m elevation, yet in the end no time loss occured. That was stage 11 though.
As the stages on which Pogacar lost big time to Vingegaard were short stages, it seems to me, the theory rest on the assumption that Vingegaards recovery is better day to day. That might be true, but it might as well not be true.
What we do know for certain on the other hand, is that Pogacar, outside of stage races, excells at long and hard efforts, on basically whatever kind of profile you offer him with. Inside stages races there isn't so much data but he still won a hard mountain stage at Tirreno-Adriatico 2022 beating Vingegaard by a minute and an uphill sprint in stage 6 of that years tour, in stages longer than 200km.
So none of that means that Vingegaard can't be better at these efforts, but it doesn't really show up in his palmares, as the longest he's ever won in a stage race was this years Dauphine stage 5 with 191km, but that was a rather impressive victory. The longest in a one day race was also about 191km.

So I think my point was not clear enough.
My base point of departure is the hardest 3-week stage race on the calendar where ability to restitute between stages becomes more and more crucial as the days goes by deeper into the race. And here stage distance atually matters when between-stages restitution ability differs, even if only a little.

In my world, a rider like Vingegaard with his physique and stature should logically have (slightly) better opportunities to recover in the 3rd week.

It becomes a bit cheap to sweep my thesis off the table when the longest mountain stage we've had has been a barely 180km stage. More days in a row with long hard stages should benefit a very light rider like Vingegaard compared to his heavier competitor Pogi.

Furthermore, you cannot use the first stages of the year for a real conclusion, as Pogi came without race distance in his legs and lost a huge time margin on the very first serious mountain. After which he has shown great stability.

And then you could also argue that Pogi has more endurance than Roglic in terms of his first tour win and the last ITT, but Vingegaard is not Roglic.

However I'll give you that much that I've been positively surprised about Pogi's stamina on Gran Colombier. And I've literarily bounced over his training entourage up Pico Veleta just pre tour.

Btw: 2019 Vuelta, what a splendid edition, think most of os were completely blown away by Pogi, but it's difficult to use Valverde and Majka as referencepoints in relation to stamina of 2023 TdF edition against a very well prepared Vingegaard.

 

[Unchained]

I may not see what others do.. But in a drag race my money is on Pogocar. From what I have observed each time the two are next to each other and it's full on, Pog looks to have a little more speed and power, not sure if that's will translate in the time trial but I am thinking Pococar in yellow by @30 seconds afterwards

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I may not see what others do.. But in a drag race my money is on Pogocar. From what I have observed each time the two are next to each other and it's full on, Pog looks to have a little more speed and power, not sure if that's will translate in the time trial but I am thinking Pococar in yellow by @30 seconds afterwards

He looked tired yesterday, and i'm fearing his recovery after Liège might have set him back ever so slightly too far. In absolute peak form, he should have gapped Vingegaard if only by a few meters. I still think he could win the TT, but i fear for what comes after.

 

[Unchained]

He looked tired yesterday, and i'm fearing his recovery after Liège might have set him back ever so slightly too far. In absolute peak form, he should have gapped Vingegaard if only by a few meters. I still think he could win the TT, but i fear for what comes after.

Yeah,I don't know? Will be interesting to watch, and because of all the one off performances, don't know what the podium will look like. I personally enjoy watching different guys I don't expect to get good results. WvA certainly comes up with a surprise here and there

 

[Didinho]

Doing backflips in the swimming pool an the restday, he’s just having fun.

 

[Ripper]

Really interesting stage yesterday, especially at the end. Pogo made quite the serious acceleration at the end, and dropped Rodriguez like a bad habit, so it wasn't lacking in total power. But Vingo was able to ride right on his wheel, in the saddle, and then draw up next to him. A changing of form? Just a random thing?

 

[Salvarani]

Really interesting stage yesterday, especially at the end. Pogo made quite the serious acceleration at the end, and dropped Rodriguez like a bad habit, so it wasn't lacking in total power. But Vingo was able to ride right on his wheel, in the saddle, and then draw up next to him. A changing of form? Just a random thing?

We will see tomorrow but most likely on Col de Loze.

 

[Poursuivant]

Big week for Pog, third MJ incoming and two more stages for his annual three stage wins.

 

[Rechtschreibfehler]

So I think my point was not clear enough.
My base point of departure is the hardest 3-week stage race on the calendar where ability to restitute between stages becomes more and more crucial as the days goes by deeper into the race. And here stage distance atually matters when between-stages restitution ability differs, even if only a little.

I get that point, it still builds on Vingegaard actuall having the upper hand in this department, of which I don't see sufficient evidence just yet. Ofc Pogacar had a sub par third week last year, yet he also threw the sink at JV and overall seemed a little of peak form.

In my world, a rider like Vingegaard with his physique and stature should logically have (slightly) better opportunities to recover in the 3rd week.

In my world it should be the other way around, because historically, the heavier allrounder riders won the the Tour rather than the pure climbers, not just because of better TTs ,but because they usually had more consistency as they weren't so frail. That at least is the classic theory I know, might be just my idiosyncratic perception though.

It becomes a bit cheap to sweep my thesis off the table when the longest mountain stage we've had has been a barely 180km stage. More days in a row with long hard stages should benefit a very light rider like Vingegaard compared to his heavier competitor Pogi.

Oh yes that would be cheap, but where did I do this? I only pointed out that the stages in which Vingegaard gained significant time one Pogacar in the Tour were actually short not long. So I argue that from this one can hardly with confidence conclude that he's inferior in the long ones. As to the point that lighter riders should take multiple efforts better look above.

Furthermore, you cannot use the first stages of the year for a real conclusion, as Pogi came without race distance in his legs and lost a huge time margin on the very first serious mountain. After which he has shown great stability.

True and none of my points rest on the first stages. The only one I reference is stage 5 as it is one were Vingegaard gained about 1 min and that in fact was also a short stage of 163km. So I guess my question is: if all the big time gains of Vingegaard came in short stages, why is the normal theory Pogacar suffers from distance? I just don't really get it.

And then you could also argue that Pogi has more endurance than Roglic in terms of his first tour win and the last ITT, but Vingegaard is not Roglic.

However I'll give you that much that I've been positively surprised about Pogi's stamina on Gran Colombier. And I've literarily bounced over his training entourage up Pico Veleta just pre tour.

Btw: 2019 Vuelta, what a splendid edition, think most of os were completely blown away by Pogi, but it's difficult to use Valverde and Majka as referencepoints in relation to stamina of 2023 TdF edition against a very well prepared Vingegaard.

I agree, I also put an asterix on the 2019 result myself pointing out it was a longer time ago. But yet it is one of the few peaks into long stage late GT Pogacar, and on this occasion, even being a very young pro, he succeeded rather spectacularly. This should not be the case if he was weak in late GT long hard stages, that was the only thing I was pointing out. It is ofc no where near "proof" of his abilities right at the moment and we will just have to wait. I am as exite as anyone else to find out, as I don't know who's gonna be better. All I really wanted to say is that I don't see where the theory comes from to begin with, because it seems to be in contradiction with the data, or not based upon data from actually long stages.

 

[LookProGoSlow]

I get that point, it still builds on Vingegaard actuall having the upper hand in this department, of which I don't see sufficient evidence just yet. Ofc Pogacar had a sub par third week last year, yet he also threw the sink at JV and overall seemed a little of peak form.



In my world it should be the other way around, because historically, the heavier allrounder riders won the the Tour rather than the pure climbers, not just because of better TTs ,but because they usually had more consistency as they weren't so frail. That at least is the classic theory I know, might be just my idiosyncratic perception though.



Oh yes that would be cheap, but where did I do this? I only pointed out that the stages in which Vingegaard gained significant time one Pogacar in the Tour were actually short not long. So I argue that from this one can hardly with confidence conclude that he's inferior in the long ones. As to the point that lighter riders should take multiple efforts better look above.



True and none of my points rest on the first stages. The only one I reference is stage 5 as it is one were Vingegaard gained about 1 min and that in fact was also a short stage of 163km. So I guess my question is: if all the big time gains of Vingegaard came in short stages, why is the normal theory Pogacar suffers from distance? I just don't really get it.




I agree, I also put an asterix on the 2019 result myself pointing out it was a longer time ago. But yet it is one of the few peaks into long stage late GT Pogacar, and on this occasion, even being a very young pro, he succeeded rather spectacularly. This should not be the case if he was weak in late GT long hard stages, that was the only thing I was pointing out. It is ofc no where near "proof" of his abilities right at the moment and we will just have to wait. I am as exite as anyone else to find out, as I don't know who's gonna be better. All I really wanted to say is that I don't see where the theory comes from to begin with, because it seems to be in contradiction with the data, or not based upon data from actually long stages.

You 2 get a room please

 

[Miha81]

Clearly enjoying day off

https://twitter.com/x/status/1681052894169030662

View: https://twitter.com/opaisdociclismo/status/1681052894169030662

 

[RedheadDane]

Apparently he almost left the Tour after Zigart's crash in the Giro. However, she told him he wasn'g going anywhere!

 

[Miha81]

Apparently he almost left the Tour after Zigart's crash in the Giro. However, she told him he wasn'g going anywhere!

He should learn that sometimes pool party with boys is better than dinner with girlfriends

 

[RedheadDane]

He should learn that sometimes pool party with boys is better than dinner with girlfriends

I think it shows what an absolute sweetheart he is. He's trying to win the Tour de France, but his fiancée is more important!
Of course, he already showed that last year, when he pulled out of LBL to be by Zigart's side when her mother was dying.

 

[Zoetemelk-fan]

I get that point, it still builds on Vingegaard actuall having the upper hand in this department, of which I don't see sufficient evidence just yet. Ofc Pogacar had a sub par third week last year, yet he also threw the sink at JV and overall seemed a little of peak form.



In my world it should be the other way around, because historically, the heavier allrounder riders won the the Tour rather than the pure climbers, not just because of better TTs ,but because they usually had more consistency as they weren't so frail. That at least is the classic theory I know, might be just my idiosyncratic perception though.



Oh yes that would be cheap, but where did I do this? I only pointed out that the stages in which Vingegaard gained significant time one Pogacar in the Tour were actually short not long. So I argue that from this one can hardly with confidence conclude that he's inferior in the long ones. As to the point that lighter riders should take multiple efforts better look above.



True and none of my points rest on the first stages. The only one I reference is stage 5 as it is one were Vingegaard gained about 1 min and that in fact was also a short stage of 163km. So I guess my question is: if all the big time gains of Vingegaard came in short stages, why is the normal theory Pogacar suffers from distance? I just don't really get it.




I agree, I also put an asterix on the 2019 result myself pointing out it was a longer time ago. But yet it is one of the few peaks into long stage late GT Pogacar, and on this occasion, even being a very young pro, he succeeded rather spectacularly. This should not be the case if he was weak in late GT long hard stages, that was the only thing I was pointing out. It is ofc no where near "proof" of his abilities right at the moment and we will just have to wait. I am as exite as anyone else to find out, as I don't know who's gonna be better. All I really wanted to say is that I don't see where the theory comes from to begin with, because it seems to be in contradiction with the data, or not based upon data from actually long stages.

I fully acknowledge your considerations.

My POV is partly based on Vingegaard's development, both on a physical but especially on a mental level, ever since he fell completely through in Tour of Poland now several years ago after winning a mountain stage and getting into the leaders jersey - only to fall completely to the buttom on the following stage.

And partly (mainly) in the direct comparison between Pogi and Jonas speaking deep into Le Tour stages.

In 2021, when Jonas unexpectedly became the leader of TJV after being dom for Roglic, he grew with the new task as leader and only won time at Pogi after the moment of Roglic abandoning.

And most recently last year, when Vingegaard was also the strongest at the last ITT (and perhaps with a possible even bigger margin, if the Netflix nonsense is to be believed).

But as I also say, Pogi is a big unknown this year - and it is only completely out of the nuances that I am of the opinion that Jonas MAY have a tiny advantage in relation to endurance deep into a GT.

And it is seen in this relation that logics points towards more evident differences in Jonas' favor with longer mountain stages when fatigue is playing a far more decisive role. But maybe the Loze stage is enough to reveal though only 166k in all - ofcourse apart from the high altitude question where my guess is that Pogi has developed so they once again are quite equal (and maybe the tiny bit of difference comes down to Jonas' mental state and willingness to take the risk).

And ofcourse it's just down to theories when the long mountain stages are not a part of this Tour edition.

And it's really primarily down to my eager curiosity regarding Pogi's development here in the direct comparison with Jonas' ditto.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Apparently he almost left the Tour after Zigart's crash in the Giro. However, she told him he wasn'g going anywhere!

He is such a nice guy, and huge respect for Zygart. Thats the support a champion such as Pogi needs, obviously she doesn't want to be the 'reason' for him leaving either. I think she enjoys watching him race just as much as every other cycling fan!

You gotta love them´

 

[QueenStagiaire]

Of course Urska Zigart‘s boyfriend would leave the Tour for Urska Zigart.

 

[RedheadDane]

Of course Urska Zigart‘s husband would leave the Tour for Urska Zigart.

Have they gotten married? Both Vingegaard and Pogacar doing the "secret wedding" thing?

 

[QueenStagiaire]

Have they gotten married? Both Vingegaard and Pogacar doing the "secret wedding" thing?

Oh, right, Urska Zigart‘s boyfriend

 

[komarts]

I think it shows what an absolute sweetheart he is. He's trying to win the Tour de France, but his fiancée is more important!
Of course, he already showed that last year, when he pulled out of LBL to be by Zigart's side when her mother was dying.

Pogi looks like a guy who has his life priorities straight. He knows cycling isn't everything in life. Puts great importance to family matters. Always saying he is thankful he can ride a bike and have fun for a living. Always saying that Tour of Slovenia is his favorite race. Mentioned numerous times how he is thankful for all the fans that cheer along the road.

And he mentioned the other day in an interview to one of the Slovenian journalists that sometimes when he is going downhill in a race, a thought comes to his mind if it's worth it in the end to go all out. It's probably the reason why we've seen him not nuke it on the descents recently. There's life outside and after one's cycling career is over.