Teams & Riders Tadej Pogačar discussion thread

[geisterhome]

Yes but this time it's different. There is no rider able to beat Vinge, even in theory. His is riding the highest possible watts and he doesn't have bad days.

Pogacar is the most talented rider and if he focuses 100 procent on the Tdf/GT GC it would not only mean to race less during spring but also that he would turn into a somewhat different type of rider. As of right now I seem him as a hilly classics specialist even more than a GC rider.
He could sacrifice some of his explosiveness/VO2max for endurance/threshold. At the same time he might also lose a kilo or two of muscle mass. There is for sure smth untapped potential.

Also he could/should also spend some time in the wind tunnel and improve his TT. Being able to keep up with Vingegaard more often when it goes uphill than in flatish TTs while being the heavier rider probably means that his TT position is off.

If Pogacar puts everything into beating Vingegaard than he will.

 

[CyclistAbi]

If there is anything left in the tank Pogi could still try to blow stage 20 to pieces. Use the team to deliver the monster in a select group to Munster and blow up the Ballon. After it's anyone guess! We'll see.

P.S. Roglič would.

 

[topcat]

If there is anything left in the tank Pogi could still try to blow stage 20 to pieces. Use the team to deliver the monster in a select group to Munster and blow up the Ballon. After it's anyone guess! We'll see.

P.S. Roglič would.

You are hanging on by a very fine thread and I dig that about you.

 

[Nick2413]

I could see Pog going for a stage win on 20 but will he be riding for Yates to keep 3rd if the other 3 teams within 2 min of Yates push the pace?

 

[Panda Claws]

He needs to completely overhaul his training. Focus on endurance and constantly think like Jens Voigt "SHUT UP LEGS". You can live on your talent for a long time, but eventually you have to start digging deep to get better.

I hate how Voigt made a career out of 'digging deep' just because he had a recognisable 'pain face'.

 

[Big Doopie]

But yeah, he is still on track to having the best season of all the WT riders.

Not right now. Vingo’s season is best. Itzulia, Dauphine, TDF.

Only question is does Vingo shut it down and Pog get a few more big wins?

And Remco comes back into play if he has a second half of the season even close to last year. Everyone saying that Remco’s spring was sh!te just because of Covid stopping his Giro. People forget his spring has already been better than last year’s, so…

 

[tobydawq]

I hate how Voigt made a career out of 'digging deep' just because he had a recognisable 'pain face'.

Voigt won more than 50 races... Only 12 currently pro riders have won more than he did.

 

[Andy schleck]

Pogacar is the most talented rider and if he focuses 100 procent on the Tdf/GT GC it would not only mean to race less during spring but also that he would turn into a somewhat different type of rider. As of right now I seem him as a hilly classics specialist even more than a GC rider.
He could sacrifice some of his explosiveness/VO2max for endurance/threshold. At the same time he might also lose a kilo or two of muscle mass. There is for sure smth untapped potential.

Also he could/should also spend some time in the wind tunnel and improve his TT. Being able to keep up with Vingegaard more often when it goes uphill than in flatish TTs while being the heavier rider probably means that his TT position is off.

If Pogacar puts everything into beating Vingegaard than he will.

Wishful thinking.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

Not right now. Vingo’s season is best. Itzulia, Dauphine, TDF.

Only question is does Vingo shut it down and Pog get a few more big wins?

And Remco comes back into play if he has a second half of the season even close to last year. Everyone saying that Remco’s spring was sh!te just because of Covid stopping his Giro. People forget his spring has already been better than last year’s, so…

When Roglic wins the Vuelta he will have the best season.

 

[bNator]

Wishful thinking.

… by many. However, arguing that a guy who won Flanders and LBL does not have a theoretical “reserve” to morph into a more effective GC rider, is ridiculous as well. Whether that would be enough or not is another question. The difference of 7 minutes does not tell the whole story, which is that for the first 2 weeks he was Vinge‘s match and was able to drop him several times. If he improves TT and his 3rd week endurance, he should come close. Assuming Vinge is not at 8,5 W/kg next year, that is…

The real question here is how will this affect Pog psychologically. His aura is definitely gone after this year. Can he adapt to the new reality of being second best rider in the peloton and can he deal with that in a positive manner? That will be crucial in determining his future chances. If it was Rog instead of him, there would be no doubt that psychologically, he can handle that. For Pog, it remains to be seen..

 

[Big Doopie]

When Roglic wins the Vuelta he will have the best season.

U r absolutely right! Completely forgot about Rog.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Pogi can now go down the suggested spiral. On how he is doing everything wrong and must change everything. Obviously not a GT GC rider anymore. And then to test this theory next year. Once he becomes that.

Or in short spending a couple of months in solitary in some desert almost being a must. Without Urška.

Or. While already here. He should crack Jonas on stage 20 or die trying. You don't get much (second) chances like that. And if it fails some much needed panache would still be the outcome.

On stage 20 MTF is on the Ballon. This is how UAE should race it and Pogi should go for the win. What comes after that. Just remember. Nobody will praise you for finishing second in cycling. Just don't do it. If you must you can do it next year. Finishing second behind Rogla.

 

[Andy schleck]

… by many. However, arguing that a guy who won Flanders and LBL does not have a theoretical “reserve” to morph into a more effective GC rider, is ridiculous as well. Whether that would be enough or not is another question. The difference of 7 minutes does not tell the whole story, which is that for the first 2 weeks he was Vinge‘s match and was able to drop him several times. If he improves TT and his 3rd week endurance, he should come close. Assuming Vinge is not at 8,5 W/kg next year, that is…

The real question here is how will this affect Pog psychologically. His aura is definitely gone after this year. Can he adapt to the new reality of being second best rider in the peloton and can he deal with that in a positive manner? That will be crucial in determining his future chances. If it was Rog instead of him, there would be no doubt that psychologically, he can handle that. For Pog, it remains to be seen..

Drop him several times....i don't think he was dropped on puy de dome and grand colombier. It was just top explosion in the end by pogacar, he only was able to take 11 seconds. Cambasque vingegaard was really dropped, with minimal losses after he buried himself on tourmalet.

Pogacar is still the more complete rider in the world, Vingegaard is now the best GT rider in the world.

Vingegaard has some abilities that is difficult to pogacar improve and be able to beat him in a grand tour. Apart from the watts, the endurance and recovery of Vingegaard are two areas where it's difficult to pogacar match him. We can see that pogacar suffers when the race is hard during 3 weeks. Other areas like stages with multiple mountains and altitude are an advantage for vingegaard.

There's some areas that a rider can try to improve, but it's always difficult to improve a lot.

Talking about the TT. Pogacar probably did the best TT of his life in this tour.

 

[bNator]

Drop him several times....i don't think he was dropped on puy de dome and grand colombier. It was just top explosion in the end by pogacar, he only was able to take 11 seconds. Cambasque vingegaard was really dropped, with minimal losses after he buried himself on tourmalet.

Pogacar is still the more complete rider in the world, Vingegaard is now the best GT rider in the world.

Vingegaard has some abilities that is difficult to pogacar improve and be able to beat him in a grand tour. Apart from the watts, the endurance and recovery of Vingegaard are two areas where it's difficult to pogacar match him. We can see that pogacar suffers when the race is hard during 3 weeks. Other areas like stages with multiple mountains and altitude are an advantage for vingegaard.

There's some areas that a rider can try to improve, but it's always difficult to improve a lot.

Talking about the TT. Pogacar probably did the best TT of his life in this tour.

And Vingegaard did the best TT of his life up to that point in last year’s Tour… and look where we are now.

But sure, it’s probably pointless to argue. According to you, Vingegaard will win the next 10 TDFs and there‘s nothing anyone can do about it. It sure looks that way…

…up to the point they can. Pog is 24, BTW and came to this Tour suboptimally prepared…

 

[Andy schleck]

And Vingegaard did the best TT of his life up to that point in last year’s Tour… and look where we are now.

But sure, it’s probably pointless to argue. According to you, Vingegaard will win the next 10 TDFs and there‘s nothing anyone can do about it. It sure looks that way…

…up to the point they can. Pog is 24, BTW and came to this Tour suboptimally prepared…

Everything can happen. Maybe in one or two years, another stronger rider can appear and win one, two or more tour de frances. In 2021 we all thought that pogacar was going to win 5 ou 6 tours. We never know if for example ayuso will dominate in the future.

 

[Lorzenz08]

Drop him several times....i don't think he was dropped on puy de dome and grand colombier. It was just top explosion in the end by pogacar, he only was able to take 11 seconds. Cambasque vingegaard was really dropped, with minimal losses after he buried himself on tourmalet.

Pogacar is still the more complete rider in the world, Vingegaard is now the best GT rider in the world.

Vingegaard has some abilities that is difficult to pogacar improve and be able to beat him in a grand tour. Apart from the watts, the endurance and recovery of Vingegaard are two areas where it's difficult to pogacar match him. We can see that pogacar suffers when the race is hard during 3 weeks. Other areas like stages with multiple mountains and altitude are an advantage for vingegaard.

There's some areas that a rider can try to improve, but it's always difficult to improve a lot.

Talking about the TT. Pogacar probably did the best TT of his life in this tour.

No about the TT, I don't think so. His pedal stroke were really lacking, way less aerial than usual. Even compared to 2020, it was just not the way he rides when he is in form.

A fit Pogacar could have shaved 40 secs in this TT. Just speculation of course, but I believe it.

For everything else I believe you are right that for the moment I don't know how can Pogacar beats Vingegaard in the Tour.

For the moment, even in the best case scenario I see Pogi losing by a minute to Vinge.

 

[ChewbaccaDefense]

If there is anything left in the tank Pogi could still try to blow stage 20 to pieces. Use the team to deliver the monster in a select group to Munster and blow up the Ballon. After it's anyone guess! We'll see.

P.S. Roglič would.

...which, based on yesterday, has the possibility of blowing him the f**k up, and losing the podium...and what about Jonas has given you the impression that, in the last week, he is anywhere near being dropped by anyone, including the entire UAE team?

 

[ChewbaccaDefense]

Drop him several times....i don't think he was dropped on puy de dome and grand colombier. It was just top explosion in the end by pogacar, he only was able to take 11 seconds. Cambasque vingegaard was really dropped, with minimal losses after he buried himself on tourmalet.

Pogacar is still the more complete rider in the world, Vingegaard is now the best GT rider in the world.

Vingegaard has some abilities that is difficult to pogacar improve and be able to beat him in a grand tour. Apart from the watts, the endurance and recovery of Vingegaard are two areas where it's difficult to pogacar match him. We can see that pogacar suffers when the race is hard during 3 weeks. Other areas like stages with multiple mountains and altitude are an advantage for vingegaard.

There's some areas that a rider can try to improve, but it's always difficult to improve a lot.

Talking about the TT. Pogacar probably did the best TT of his life in this tour.

And imagine if that TT had been 44k...

 

[Big Doopie]

And imagine if that TT had been 44k...

if only...

still dreaming of a return to long TTs.

 

[Cookster15]

...which, based on yesterday, has the possibility of blowing him the f**k up, and losing the podium...and what about Jonas has given you the impression that, in the last week, he is anywhere near being dropped by anyone, including the entire UAE team?

As was pointed out by CyclistAbi, in professional cycling nobody cares about 2nd. Contador would have tried - like he did in the 2011 TdF stage 19 after he cracked on stage 18. I would be happy to see Pog try and crash. But equally I would be happy to see him secure a podium.

 

[Extinction]

Not really, just unfortunate reality and everyone is wiser in hindsight.

Pogacar's LBL crash and his wrist injury was a stark reality. I think Pog was hoping this interruption to his training meant he could regain his top level by the 3rd week of the TdF. But he, like us, was guessing. In fact he ran out of base load condition just as Contador warned us (below is the story). On Loze Pog has also earned another black card against his name on his ability at altitude - but again, maybe this was his condition?

So 2023 is another what if. What if no cash? We have to wait until 2024 and a possible three way fight with Remco. Next year Pog will still only be 25. But as of now, yes of course Vingegaard is the strongest rider in the world.

Exclusive: Contador 'worried' about Pogacar's Tour preparations ahead of Vingegaard battle

Alberto Contador has admitted he is worried as to whether Tadej Pogacar’s wrist injury has impacted on his Tour de France preparations.

www.eurosport.com

That's one theory. My opinion is that the wrist injury has less to do with his decline than all the efforts in the first two weeks to try and beat Vingeggard. Although admittedly it could be a combination of both factors. We can only speculate upon how much the Liege fall compromised his Tour prep, but if they brought him to the race it wasn't to finish 2nd. So his numbers must have been comparable with his best, because UAE must have known that anything less would be futile to confront Jonas and slay him. Hence I don't imagine next year his level will be significantly higher. This is why I think his (over) aggressive riding that was in a certain sense necessary to stay in the game, more than the wrist, was the cause of his eventual implosion.

 

[Cookster15]

That's one theory. My opinion is that the wrist injury has less to do with his decline than all the efforts in the first two weeks to try and beat Vingeggard. Although admittedly it could be a combination of both factors. We can only speculate upon how much the Liege fall compromised his Tour prep, but if they brought him to the race it wasn't to finish 2nd. So his numbers must have been comparable with his best, because UAE must have known that anything less would be futile to confront Jonas and slay him. Hence I don't imagine next year his level will be significantly higher. This is why I think his (over) aggressive riding that was in a certain sense necessary to stay in the game, more than the wrist, was the cause of his eventual implosion.

UAE and Pog have their own opinions / theories too. Nothing is certain even with the best medical science. Pog also rode more conservatively this Tour compared to 2022, but that wasn't enough to save him when it mattered. I commend UAE/Pog for trying but they (and everyone else) were obviously shocked by the TT and then Pog was completely empty the following day on Loze. Pog's collapse on Loze points to lack of condition (base).

Contador is an example of a rider who would throw caution to the wind even if he was a long shot - I think he won his first grand tour after his ban this way (Vuelta, defeating Purito)?

On the other hand we also don't know how Vingegaard would have fared with a similar setback?

As for next year, Pog will still only be 25 then. Logically (bell curve) he should be slightly stronger with a good prep / no injuries or sickness. But these are all hypotheticals, nothing is right or wrong until it actually plays out. Everyone is wiser in hindsight

 

[Extinction]

UAE and Pog have their own opinions / theories too. Nothing is certain even with the best medical science. Pog also rode more conservatively this Tour compared to 2022, but that wasn't enough to save him when it mattered. I commend UAE/Pog for trying but they (and everyone else) were obviously shocked by the TT and then Pog was completely empty the following day on Loze. Pog's collapse on Loze points to lack of condition (base).

Contador as an example of a rider who would throw caution to the wind even if he was a long shot - I think he won his first grand tour after his ban this way (Vuelta, defeating Purito)?

On the other hand we also don't know how Vingegaard would have fared with a similar setback?

As for next year, Pog will still only be 25 then. Logically (bell curve) he should be slightly stronger with a good prep / no injuries or sickness. But these are all hypotheticals, nothing is right or wrong until it actually plays out. Everyone is wiser in hindsight

In theory Pog should be stronger next year, but so too Vingeggard. Yet Pogacar has been burning with such an intensity since he was 20, such that his flame could burn out sooner than a typical rider's longevity. Returning to the previous issue, it may be that Pog's numbers were just as good as in previous years prior to the start of the Tour, but that the foundation upon which his form was based was not as substantial. At any rate, he rode a solid TT, but the problem was that Jonas was stratospheric. I believe Pog went so deep in the TT, because he had to, that he emptied himself and couldn't recover for the next day. Here his base condition could have played a role. In theory he wouldn't have gone any faster in the TT, but his recovery would have been better and so he wouldn't have imploded on the Col de la Loze. I still think that against this Vingeggard it would not have been enough, however.

 

[Cookster15]

In theory Pog should be stronger next year, but so too Vingeggard. Yet Pogacar has been burning with such an intensity since he was 20, such that his flame could burn out sooner than a typical rider's longevity. Returning to the previous issue, it may be that Pog's numbers were just as good in previous years just prior to the start of the Tour, but that foundation upon which his form was based was not as substantial. At any rate, he rode a solid TT, but the problem was that Jonas was stratospheric. I believe Pog went so deep in the TT, because he had to, that he emptied himself and couldn't recover for the next day. Here his base condition could have played a role. In theory he wouldn't have gone any faster in the TT, but his recovery would have been better and so he wouldn't have imploded on the Col de la Loze. I still think that against this Vingeggard it would not have been enough, however.

Yeh, I think Pog rode a great TT - but he completely emptied himself and paid the price due to running out of condition / recovery. It’s impossible to predict their relative strengths next year. I hear you that sometimes riders burn out earlier. We will see. In the meantime stage 20 might be interesting.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

In theory Pog should be stronger next year, but so too Vingeggard. Yet Pogacar has been burning with such an intensity since he was 20, such that his flame could burn out sooner than a typical rider's longevity. Returning to the previous issue, it may be that Pog's numbers were just as good as in previous years prior to the start of the Tour, but that the foundation upon which his form was based was not as substantial. At any rate, he rode a solid TT, but the problem was that Jonas was stratospheric. I believe Pog went so deep in the TT, because he had to, that he emptied himself and couldn't recover for the next day. Here his base condition could have played a role. In theory he wouldn't have gone any faster in the TT, but his recovery would have been better and so he wouldn't have imploded on the Col de la Loze. I still think that against this Vingeggard it would not have been enough, however.

I agree that Pog's threshold was very high during this Tour, maybe highest ever. His performances on Tourmalet, Puy de Dome and Joux Plane stages confirm it. He clearly lacked something for the 3rd week though (it looked like he peaked for a 2-week race) and it likely was associated with preparations. As for the TT, sure, Vinge performed superbly well. But since yesterday I'm actually starting to think that maybe top form Pog wouldn't be that far off (6.8 w/kg for 20 min is outrageous but Pog did 6.5 w/kg for 29 min at the end of difficult stage at a higher altitude so maybe he would be able to produce i.e. 6.7 w/kg for last 20 mins of a TT losing i.e. 30-40 seconds instead of 100).