Teams & Riders Tadej Pogačar discussion thread

[Nick2413]

Bonette is just not a climb at all where Pogacar is gonna crack.

Never say never. Might have to screenshot this

 

[Froome]

I honestly think the Tour de France is gonna depend so much on where the TT + sprint balance falls in that it depends on who is forced to attack.

There's no really great stages for Vingegaard IMO. Plateau de Beille is a super hard stage, but the final climb comes after a plateau and it requires Vingegaard to attack relatively early on the climb. Bonnette is just not a climb at all where Pogacar is gonna crack.

Actually i think Tour 2024 suits better Vingegaard than the Tour 2023. La loze stage was almost the only mountain stage really good for him.

Now in the Tour 2024, there will be mountain stages with more altitude, more vertical meters accumulated, and mountain finishes like plateau de beille and isola 2000, who are really long climbs.

He can do a lot of damage on cime de la bonette because of the altitude.

The fact that almost every hard stage(+the hilly TTl is backloaded in the last week and half, also suits him.

 

[Froome]

Altitude is underrated. Altitude creates a lot of gaps because some riders can deal better with that, others not so well, because of the difficulty to breath.

Iseran wasn't that steep, and Bernal still created a very good gap.

 

[Cookster15]

Altitude is underrated. Altitude creates a lot of gaps because some riders can deal better with that, others not so well, because of the difficulty to breath.

Iseran wasn't that steep, and Bernal still created a very good gap.

I note Bonnette isn't a MTF. The finish is at Isola 2000 which while long at 16km is only 7%. IMO, it still all comes back to how Pogacar recovers after the Giro, else this all might be academic by then.

 

[dazaau]

I'm sorry if this has already been posted but I can't keep up with this thread and all the mou back and forward but I see there is a lot of talk about FTP and weight, so:

Johan from the move (39min into the MSR episode) noted that Pog currently has an FTP of about 430 (6.58w/kg) and that he plans to go down to 63kg for the tour (losing another 1.5 to 2kg). He wants to be able to hold 7.5w/kg for 15min and 7w/kg for 30 min to win the tour and uae are putting a lot of work into his TT.

He also confirmed he has a new trainer.

No idea where his source is. Might be Mou

 

[topcat]

To get to the truth in here, you have to listen to about 8.5kg of lies.

 

[Nick2413]

Vingegaard flipped the script last year and made some of his biggest gains in Pogacar territory. And we saw Pogacar blow early on Loze, obviously after the TT but still. This year’s edition has 5 stages with over 4K vert vs 3 stages last year. 3 stages over 2000m altitude vs 2 last year. Maybe altitude isn’t the end all be all but when you add it all together, this will be a hard race and climbs like Bonette can do big damage.

 

[Cookster15]

IMO altitude is a bit misunderstood. It makes existing gaps in level bigger because drafting gets harder, and it makes recovery much harder, so if you blow up you blow up harder.

Iseran was also largely cause the chase group was waiting on domestique pace.

Altitude isn't that much of a specific ability or skill. Some riders got a name for being great or bad at high altitude based on selection bias mostly.

I think regulars here know your views on altitude. I tend to think ability at altitude has as much to do with genetic predisposition as selection bias. Also in the mountain climbing world they say you can’t predict how someone will respond to altitude until they do it? Not sure if this is backed by any studies?

It was well known that Alejandro Valverde suffered more at over 2,000 metres relative to other GC rivals. Iseran is over 2,700 metres. Bonette is 2,800, but comes mid stage. That may help Pogacar stay in contention but only if he isn’t already dead from the Giro by that point.

 

[Cookster15]

Vingegaard flipped the script last year and made some of his biggest gains in Pogacar territory. And we saw Pogacar blow early on Loze, obviously after the TT but still. This year’s edition has 5 stages with over 4K vert vs 3 stages last year. 3 stages over 2000m altitude vs 2 last year. Maybe altitude isn’t the end all be all but when you add it all together, this will be a hard race and climbs like Bonette can do big damage.

IMO, we can’t read too much into last year. Pog suffered due to the lingering effects of losing base condition after his late April LBL crash and broken wrist. First he buried himself in the stage 16 TT, then lack of recovery killed him on Loze the following day. Possible loss of recovery due to his interrupted training. Not necessarily altitude. This is just my opinion.

 

[scribers]

Have we just considered pogi just wanted Vingo to win a couple?

Think about. The long game on this is the French love pogi now. They don’t love domination.

 

[kn0s]

IMO, we can’t read too much into last year. Pog suffered due to the lingering effects of losing base condition after his late April LBL crash and broken wrist. First he buried himself in the stage 16 TT, then lack of recovery killed him on Loze the following day. Possible loss of recovery due to his interrupted training. Not necessarily altitude. This is just my opinion.

The race was gone and dead after Marie Blanque, no more was needed. Not hot, no high altitude, not third week, no Roglic one/two. Was it enough "missing base condition" at stage 5? Anything else we can use as an excuse?

I'm kidding a little of course, but to me it seems like they are very evenly matched, but when the needle tips the way of Jonas he just takes more time and he (so far) has less bad days.

 

[yaf]

I have to inform you that as of tomorrow we are no longer hanging out, the annual vacation is over, so we have to bring this good banter to an end, we will hear from each other from time to time during Giro, bye to all true fans of Pog 🥳🥳🥳🥳

Thanks for all the hype it would be nice if you come by liege.

 

[Miha81]

I think regulars here know your views on altitude. I tend to think ability at altitude has as much to do with genetic predisposition as selection bias. Also in the mountain climbing world they say you can’t predict how someone will respond to altitude until they do it? Not sure if this is backed by any studies?

Exactly. For example my former climbing partner was animal on most of terrains up to 3.000m altitude and all I could do was following his lead. It was my biggest fear how my body will react on higher altitudes but I was coping with it. On the other hand my climbing partner had large difficulties on higher altitudes and we had to abandon some of the summits for this exact reason. Off course we did not have luxury of hyperbaric chamber, specific training regimes, nutricionists,... but nevertheless I think genetic predispositions played part in it.

 

[iBanesto]

The Giro has a very underwhelming field and because of that, I think Pog will walk there at 90% of his level. Hope for good weather to not take a lot of energy from Pog. I want Vingegaard to be challenged

It will be an easy ride for Pogacar barring a crash or the UAE screwing up controlling the peloton.

The latter is very possible.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

Exactly. For example my former climbing partner was animal on most of terrains up to 3.000m altitude and all I could do was following his lead. It was my biggest fear how my body will react on higher altitudes but I was coping with it. On the other hand my climbing partner had large difficulties on higher altitudes and we had to abandon some of the summits for this exact reason. Off course we did not have luxury of hyperbaric chamber, specific training regimes, nutricionists,... but nevertheless I think genetic predispositions played part in it.

I previously worked for a charity whose work included having people (nearly all from US, UK or Ireland) throughout Peru, Ecuador and Bolivia. It was effectively impossible to anticipate who would be able to operate well at altitude, and who would be no good at all, at least for some time. No obvious correlation of younger, apparently fitter people suffering altitude sickness any less.

 

[Extinction]

Who's most talented , Pog or Remco?
That's a debate for the ages.

With Pog's palmarès there isn't much to question, although Remco had a serious set-back. Now Remco needs to beat him in Liege and the Tour, unfortunately there is also a certain Vingegaard to contend with in France.

 

[TrekCyclist]

Who's most talented , Pog or Remco?
That's a debate for the ages.

I dont know who's more talented, let alone how to measure talent.
But I know who has been bay far the better rider during the last years.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Vingegaard flipped the script last year and made some of his biggest gains in Pogacar territory. And we saw Pogacar blow early on Loze, obviously after the TT but still. This year’s edition has 5 stages with over 4K vert vs 3 stages last year. 3 stages over 2000m altitude vs 2 last year. Maybe altitude isn’t the end all be all but when you add it all together, this will be a hard race and climbs like Bonette can do big damage.

I wouldn't say altitude alone is that important. It's really about who's the strongest on climbs and the effect of cumulated fatigue. Bonette + Isola combo could be very important (alongside Nice ITT) especially due to its position in the race: by then Vingo can have more in tank than anybody else and he likes long climbs. If you look at Vingo's gains vs Pog then Granon is an example of high altitude but Hautacam, Marie Blanque and last year's ITT aren't. Even Loze isn't as Pog cracked completely at a much lower elevation and would've lost minutes regardless of the climb location.

 

[AmRacer]

I wouldn't say altitude alone is that important. It's really about who's the strongest on climbs and the effect of cumulated fatigue. Bonette + Isola combo could be very important (alongside Nice ITT) especially due to its position in the race: by then Vingo can have more in tank than anybody else and he likes long climbs. If you look at Vingo's gains vs Pog then Granon is an example of high altitude but Hautacam, Marie Blanque and last year's ITT aren't. Even Loze isn't as Pog cracked completely at a much lower elevation and would've lost minutes regardless of the climb location.

I wouldn't say Pog cracked completely. He was the runner up in Paris. He cracked vs Jonas, but that's all to it.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

I wouldn't say Pog cracked completely. He was the runner up in Paris. He cracked vs Jonas, but that's all to it.

On that day he really cracked completely. He was second in Paris because his advantage over the rest of the field was huge in the previous 16 stages. Their performances (his and Vingo's) were very impressive but he paid for it in the 3rd week.

 

[AmRacer]

On that day he really cracked completely. He was second in Paris because his advantage over the rest of the field was huge in the previous 16 stages. Their performances (his and Vingo's) were very impressive but he paid for it in the 3rd week.

Had he lost 27 minutes, how much time did S. Yates lose in that Giro?
Then I'd say Pog cracked completely.

 

[Cookster15]

I wouldn't say altitude alone is that important. It's really about who's the strongest on climbs and the effect of cumulated fatigue. Bonette + Isola combo could be very important (alongside Nice ITT) especially due to its position in the race: by then Vingo can have more in tank than anybody else and he likes long climbs. If you look at Vingo's gains vs Pog then Granon is an example of high altitude but Hautacam, Marie Blanque and last year's ITT aren't. Even Loze isn't as Pog cracked completely at a much lower elevation and would've lost minutes regardless of the climb location.

Yes. But Pog had suboptimal prep last year so I don't think we can read too much into that. Cumulative fatigue is related to your base condition. But Pogacar did well on Cauteret stage the following day after Marie Blanque. He did a good TT but still lost time to an imperious Vingo. But that effort drained his reserves - again, related to his interrupted training from his LBL crash. Hence his capitulation on the lower slopes of Loze.

Not sure if an uninterrupted prep will make any difference as he has chosen to do the Giro. But it will be interesting to see him try. This is one reason why he is more popular than Vingegaard.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Yes. But Pog had suboptimal prep last year so I don't think we can read too much into that. Cumulative fatigue is related to your base condition. But Pogacar did well on Cauteret stage the following day after Marie Blanque. He did a good TT but still lost time to an imperious Vingo. But that effort drained his reserves - again, related to his interrupted training from his LBL crash. Hence his capitulation on the lower slopes of Loze.

Not sure if an uninterrupted prep will make any difference as he has chosen to do the Giro. But it will be interesting to see him try. This is one reason why he is more popular than Vingegaard.

Sure, his preparations was strongly affected and this could've been an important factor on Loze day. Still, even without that it would've been hard to beat Vingo (the ITT was the mother of thermonuclear performances! Plus no chance to drop him on Loze anyway).

 

[Cookster15]

Sure, his preparations was strongly affected and this could be a decisive factor on Loze day. Still, even without that it would've been hard to beat Vingo (the ITT was the mother of thermonuclear performances! Plus no chance to drop him on Loze anyway).

Yeh, I was kind of inferring that ("an imperious Vingo"). Anyway, let see what a smooth prep delivers. He is also skipping some classics races since he needs to do the Giro.

Not sure what all this means in terms of what he might have left by July. It was too much for Alberto Contador in 2011. But Contador raced a crazy Giro in 2011 and that edition had far more climbing than this year.

 

[Nick2413]

I wouldn't say altitude alone is that important. It's really about who's the strongest on climbs and the effect of cumulated fatigue. Bonette + Isola combo could be very important (alongside Nice ITT) especially due to its position in the race: by then Vingo can have more in tank than anybody else and he likes long climbs. If you look at Vingo's gains vs Pog then Granon is an example of high altitude but Hautacam, Marie Blanque and last year's ITT aren't. Even Loze isn't as Pog cracked completely at a much lower elevation and would've lost minutes regardless of the climb location.

That’s fair. I think Pogacar’s best hope is that Visma isn’t as strong, to limit the overall build of fatigue in the race.