Teams & Riders Tadej Pogačar discussion thread

[repre]

I maintain that the #1 reason that we haven't seen the Giro-Tour double is that only one rider has actually tried it while at the peak of his dominance, and that was Contador doing the sickest Giro route in 2011 and then he proceeded to crash hard in the Tour and lose 1'30 doing so before blowing himself up trying to get that all back.

Contador had a window to do it. Froome had a window to do it. Pogacar had a window to do it before. I believe it's entirely possible. Both Vingegaard and Pogacar can do it IMO

I think #1 reason nobody even tries this anymore cause it dramatically reduces chances to win TDF and this is main objective for all teams with dominant GC rider. Nowadays to win TDF you must be at 100% and it's virtually impossible to do after the GC battle at Giro.

We may dream about it and say Pogi and Vingo can do it, but the real question if they WILL. So far nobody did that.
Vingo with his insane recovery has better chances for it IMHO, but untill he crushes TDF we won't see it, cause Visma won't risk TDF win for Giro-TDF fairytail.

 

[Red Rick]

I think #1 reason nobody even tries this anymore cause it dramatically reduces chances to win TDF and this is main objective for all teams with dominant GC rider. Nowadays to win TDF you must be at 100% and it's virtually impossible to do after the GC battle at Giro.

We may dream about it and say Pogi and Vingo can do it, but the real question if they WILL. So far nobody did that.
Vingo with his insane recovery has better chances for it IMHO, but untill he crushes TDF we won't see it, cause Visma won't risk TDF win for Giro-TDF fairytail.

When Tom Dumoulin can get 2nd and 2nd, the double is hardly impossible. We just see very few of the top riders try it.

 

[foxbat]

no WVA for visma in the tour = let's see how that flushes out for jonas

 

[Didinho]

When Tom Dumoulin can get 2nd and 2nd, the double is hardly impossible. We just see very few of the top riders try it.

Also my thought.
We all think best case scenario Giro win and Tour 2nd. What if Vingo gets sick/injured, it's his to win.

 

[Froome]

no WVA for visma in the tour = let's see how that flushes out for jonas

Jonas will miss more Van hooydonck than WVA.

 

[Offline]

Yes, Sierra Nevada for three weeks, then Belgium, a bit of rest and then preparation for LBL, after preparation for Giro. This year he hasn't done altitude training yet.

No altitude before the giro also sounded weird!
Happy that’s wasn’t true

 

[repre]

When Tom Dumoulin can get 2nd and 2nd, the double is hardly impossible. We just see very few of the top riders try it.

Competition for 2nd was almost non-existent at Giro and at TDF it was Froome, who was doing the same double as Dumo, and Roglic in his first GC try. This is not good comparison to this year's TDF battle

 

[Netserk]

Competition for 2nd last year in the Tour was Pogi's dom and riders who crashed.

 

[Froome]

I believe Pogacar, Vingegaard, Roglic can do well in both races if they do Giro/Tour, but i don't believe they can be in peak shape in the second GT(Tour de France).

 

[yaf]

https://www.reddit.com/r/peloton/comments/155tq0a/power_estimation_for_the_stage_16_itt

View: https://www.reddit.com/r/peloton/comments/155tq0a/power_estimation_for_the_stage_16_itt/

Read this insightful data and never come back with lantern rouges greatest ever fisher watts

 

[Netserk]

https://www.reddit.com/r/peloton/comments/155tq0a/power_estimation_for_the_stage_16_itt

View: https://www.reddit.com/r/peloton/comments/155tq0a/power_estimation_for_the_stage_16_itt/

Read this insightful data and never come back with lantern rouges greatest ever fisher watts

We went over it last year:

Someone on /r/peloton actually ran the math in depth and found it was more likely to be ~6.9 for the climb

 

[Jan the Man]

i agree with Red Rick that a Giro Tour double is possible. But much less probable if neither Pog or Vigne are doing both (I consider both to be the preeminent GTers). If one or the other focusses on just the Tour the odds clearly favour he who focuses - Vigne has the advantage that he is a step ahead of Pog in GTs too in my view, albeit last year’s margin was not reflective of the actual gap between them.

 

[foxbat]

Jonas will miss more Van hooydonck than WVA.

nope...WVA and Kuss were the principal helpers for him winning 2022, 2023

 

[Brullnux]

TDF and Vuelta double is not the same as Giro-TDF as nobody from top riders are aiming and peaking for Vuelta, so requirements there is not the same as for standart Giro or TDF. Correct way for comparison is only doing Giro-TDF double, cause Pogi will do this and not TDF-Vuelta.

So from your list only Kuss and Dumo qualify. Kuss was 14th and 12th as a dom (not the same as GC threat), and Dumo was 2nd at both Giro and TDF. Which is great for Dumo and probably greatest attempt for the double in recent seasons, but won't qualify as success for Pogi.

You are not really gonna find the guy who has won Giro and TDF the same year in modern cycling. And there is a reason for this.

As i recall, nobody won Giro and TDF the same year after Pantani in 1998, so nobody at all in modern era. Which is why i said that Pogi aiming for Giro win is almost a white flag for TDF battle against Vingo. He can try, this is not bad at all, he already did things that were unimaginable in his career.

But chances to win both GTs are minimal even for him.

Froome came 1st and 3rd in the same season Dumo came 2nd twice. Would've come 2nd had he not lost ca one minute in a crash on stage one. This was at a point he was nowhere near as dominant as his peak/Pogacar, too.

 

[Cookster15]

I maintain that the #1 reason that we haven't seen the Giro-Tour double is that only one rider has actually tried it while at the peak of his dominance, and that was Contador doing the sickest Giro route in 2011 and then he proceeded to crash hard in the Tour and lose 1'30 doing so before blowing himself up trying to get that all back.

Contador had a window to do it. Froome had a window to do it. Pogacar had a window to do it before. I believe it's entirely possible. Both Vingegaard and Pogacar can do it IMO

In 2011 Contador didn't blow himself up trying to claw back lost time - he was dropped when trying to follow the Evans group on the Galibier when he was already 3'15" down. He cracked on stage 18 due to fatigue from the super hard Giro and the super aggressive way he rode that edition. He still bounced back the following day then rode a great TT. Pogacar should be capable of all that.

Agree, with the much easier Giro route this year I think its possible for Pogacar to pull it off. But more likely Vingegaard will prevail with fresher legs in the 3rd week. I also agree Vingegaard could try in the future. That should be obvious after how good he was in last year's Vuelta.

 

[repre]

Froome came 1st and 3rd in the same season Dumo came 2nd twice. Would've come 2nd had he not lost ca one minute in a crash on stage one. This was at a point he was nowhere near as dominant as his peak/Pogacar, too.

True, and at the point where no one was dominant and G was winning Le Tour. And still froomey had 1st and 3rd which is great comparison for this year Pogi in results

 

[Poursuivant]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1772316298590011536

View: https://twitter.com/ammattipyoraily/status/1772316298590011536

 

[bNator]

TDF and Vuelta double is not the same as Giro-TDF as nobody from top riders are aiming and peaking for Vuelta, so requirements there is not the same as for standart Giro or TDF. Correct way for comparison is only doing Giro-TDF double, cause Pogi will do this and not TDF-Vuelta.

So from your list only Kuss and Dumo qualify. Kuss was 14th and 12th as a dom (not the same as GC threat), and Dumo was 2nd at both Giro and TDF. Which is great for Dumo and probably greatest attempt for the double in recent seasons, but won't qualify as success for Pogi.

You are not really gonna find the guy who has won Giro and TDF the same year in modern cycling. And there is a reason for this.

As i recall, nobody won Giro and TDF the same year after Pantani in 1998, so nobody at all in modern era. Which is why i said that Pogi aiming for Giro win is almost a white flag for TDF battle against Vingo. He can try, this is not bad at all, he already did things that were unimaginable in his career.

But chances to win both GTs are minimal even for him.

You are forgetting Froome, he also podiumed Giro/TDF double…

But that’s not the point, really. What I was trying to say is, you can do two consecutive GTs and be still at the top of your game in the second one. The result doesn’t even matter that much. You can’t argue Kuss was not at his best in last years Vuelta and you probably can’t argue Carapaz was not at his best in 2020 Vuelta. Dumo was mich better at the Tour than he was at the Giro. In fact, Dumoulin at 2018 Tour is probably best we’ve ever seen him.

Once we establish it’s possible to be at your best in the second GT, I see absolutely no reason why Pog couldn’t be at his best in TDF. Whether that will be enough for the double is another question…

But I really doubt Pogi doing the double is out of fear of Vinge. I just don’t see it, sorry…

 

[Slavique Nuke]

Giro or without Giro, Vingegaard is still a massive favourite for the TdF. In this perspective it's smart for Pog to go to the Giro, maybe the confidence that another GT win will give him is worth more than a less than ideal physical condition. As he lost his cool several times last year against Vingegaard. He can't afford to do that again if he wants to win the TdF.

Especially since Vingegaard has not only had a physical transformation in recent years, but has also become a monster mentally. Guy just seems super sharp all the time, focused, never panics. What a change from 2 years ago when he was crashing into other riders even on ascents.

 

[AmRacer]

It's five weeks between Giro anf TdF. 2018 it was six weeks. One week extra to prepare/recover means a lot. But on the other hand, 2018 Giro was ridden pretty hard. Poggi can compensate the missing week with not riding the Giro at full capacity, he will win it anyway.

 

[repre]

Giro or without Giro, Vingegaard is still a massive favourite for the TdF. In this perspective it's smart for Pog to go to the Giro, maybe the confidence that another GT win will give him is worth more than a less than ideal physical condition. As he lost his cool several times last year against Vingegaard. He can't afford to do that again if he wants to win the TdF.

Especially since Vingegaard has not only had a physical transformation in recent years, but has also become a monster mentally. Guy just seems super sharp all the time, focused, never panics. What a change from 2 years ago when he was crashing into other riders even on ascents.

He can celebrate with hands up in the air now too, what a monster he became!!!

 

[Bolder]

When Tom Dumoulin can get 2nd and 2nd, the double is hardly impossible. We just see very few of the top riders try it.

Indeed. Problem is if you can win the Tour, especially if you’re the incumbent, then you almost HAVE to focus on it. Maybe once you’ve collected enough Tour wins you could go for the double. I always wished Armstrong would have tried.

Vingegaard in current form might be able to do it, but I’m not positive he’s mentally capable, he has said that winning the Tour takes a lot out of him. That’s not meant as a criticism.

 

[danielovichdk2]

Giro or without Giro, Vingegaard is still a massive favourite for the TdF. In this perspective it's smart for Pog to go to the Giro, maybe the confidence that another GT win will give him is worth more than a less than ideal physical condition. As he lost his cool several times last year against Vingegaard. He can't afford to do that again if he wants to win the TdF.

Especially since Vingegaard has not only had a physical transformation in recent years, but has also become a monster mentally. Guy just seems super sharp all the time, focused, never panics. What a change from 2 years ago when he was crashing into other riders even on ascents.

Pog is undoubtedly aware of the fact that he is not a favourite in TdF when Vingegaard is there. Pretty obvious why looking at the history. No need to debate it and especially this year where Pogs plan is both different and absolutely not in favour for winning two GTs. That is definitely not happening, only if Vingegaard crashes out.

 

[AmRacer]

Pog is undoubtedly aware of the fact that he is not a favourite in TdF when Vingegaard is there. Pretty obvious why looking at the history. No need to debate it and especially this year where Pogs plan is both different and absolutely not in favour for winning two GTs. That is definitely not happening, only if Vingegaard crashes out.

Jonas will show R&R who's the boss at Itzulia and Daupuine. But R&R will try do something at TdF, so Poggi may take advantage of it. Unless Jonas puts the three of them at thier place.

 

[Extinction]

Gauging level by W/kg estimates from completely different climbs makes no sense. It makes more sense if you have similar climbs, it's preferable to have the exact same climb, and even then the gap to the competition is a better metric still.

In that regard, Pogacar is at a similar level as in 2022 and 2023 IMO. Crushing Tirreno/PN/Catalunya, very strong, but couldn't make the difference in Sanremo each year. Taking big time on the climbs that suit him, at quite similar rates IMO. Compare San Isidre to Col d'Eze. Maybe 2022 was a bit weaker with the smaller gap in Strade and the difficulty he had beating Yates in UAE, but that's about it. I wouldn't lose my mind over Strade cause a rainy 220km Strade is the #1 perfect race for Pog and he probably wins that hungover.

I'm inclined to say the same of Vingegaard, who is probably around the same level as last year. The fluctuations in their winning gaps are very heavily down to the parcourses they race in the stage races.

But then, after an 81 km rant at Strade and then a near breaking the elastic at MSR, even though the course isn't suited to him, he crushed Catalunya. As I said he is leaner, hasn't lost power, has benefited from maturity, etc. He thus is on a higher level.It might not be possible today to win the Giro-Tour double, but he is perhaps, right now, the only one who feasably can. But then it remains to be seen what Vingo brings to the table come July.