Teams & Riders Tadej Pogačar discussion thread

[Peyroteo94]

Sanremo is hard to win if you're the main favorite and everyone rides on your wheel. But I'm pretty convinced at this point that just doing tempo and waiting for the final kicker is not quite gonna do it for him. I actually believe a little more in attacking earlier when everyone else is out of position.

I think he will attack on Cipressa next year. Harder climb and devastating pace until his attack

 

[Salvarani]

I think he will attack on Cipressa next year. Harder climb and devastating pace until his attack

Have more roulers before Cipressa to be able to set a pace from the bottom is key here. Don’t get swamped before it.

 

[theyoungest]

Yeah, a race like PR MVDP has to been seen as the favorite but nobody would be surprised to see Pog being a big rival there. Already beaten him in Ronde once and he has done well on the cobbles. Seen in the TdF on stages incoperating them. PR type stages.

I think in the flatter classics you can still see the difference between the more climber-type Pogacar and the more classics-type Van der Poel. The Ronde on its current course is more of an Ardennes type classic, so that's why he shines there. But if you take last year's Worlds, for instance, Pogi actually wasn't that impressive there. Neither was Evenepoel. That's where the pure Watts trump the relative Watts.

Or take the finish in last year's E3 Classic... Pogi got absolutely smoked there by Van Aert and Van der Poel. He's fast compared to climbers, but not compared to actual sprinters.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Cipressa attacks are like nuclear fusion. Always next year.

Maybe you are right but he needs to surprise everyone. He can't always wait to attack in the final km of Poggio. He will not drop MVP

 

[Peyroteo94]

I think in the flatter classics you can still see the difference between the more climber-type Pogacar and the more classics-type Van der Poel. The Ronde on its current course is more of an Ardennes type classic, so that's why he shines there. But if you take last year's Worlds, for instance, Pogi actually wasn't that impressive there. Neither was Evenepoel. That's where the pure Watts trump the relative Watts.

Or take the finish in last year's E3 Classic... Pogi got absolutely smoked there by Van Aert and Van der Poel. He's fast compared to climbers, but not compared to actual sprinters.

Pogacar was destroyed before Glasgow. Terrible example.

 

[Peyroteo94]

He was very impressive in the gravel stage this year, very impressive in the 2022 mini Roubaix. He is not Remco, he has the pure watts, he doesn't have enough power in his sprint so MSR and PR will always be tough for him.

 

[Savant12]

I think he will attack on Cipressa next year. Harder climb and devastating pace until his attack

He just needs some luck that's all. He can always try the Cipressa attack and see what happens. But they tried to drill the Cipressa this year and things got messy and eventually the momentum was lost.

 

[AmRacer]

He was very impressive in the gravel stage this year, very impressive in the 2022 mini Roubaix. He is not Remco, he has the pure watts, he doesn't have enough power in his sprint so MSR and PR will always be tough for him.

He would've won MSR hadn't Mathieu said, 'You don't win on my watch', and reeled him in.

 

[Mina.S]

Any one see Matteo Jorgenson Strava for Emilia “just zone 2”. Feel like he’s the first person who has thrown shade at Pog publicly for a while 😅🤷🏻‍♀️

 

[Peyroteo94]

He would've won MSR hadn't Mathieu said, 'You don't win on my watch', and reeled him in.

But MVP knows he can't let Pogacar go away and next year, I think we will have the same scenario

 

[Peyroteo94]

Yes and no.

It was an extremely attritional race, which favors him, no matter how tired he is. It was all efforts so short it wasn't about climbing ability anymore. That's a pivotal difference. Even in de Ronde you have climbs of 1-2 minutes and the 4 minute Kwaremont, which is different from Glasgow.

Roubaix however is a race where there's 0 actual climbing, which means his greatest strength isn't used at all.

But he wasn't close to his peak shape. I can't see MVP dropping a full peak Pogacar in any type of climb.

 

[Jack_89]

The main problem of the Cipressa attacks is sustain the effort in the 9kms flat. He's the only one who has a shot to fo it, expecially in this new form of him. Anyway, where is written that MVP or WVA or Ganna won't with him after the Cipressa...

 

[Monsi]

The main problem of the Cipressa attacks is sustain the effort in the 9kms flat. He's the only one who has a shot to fo it, expecially in this new form of him. Anyway, where is written that MVP or WVA or Ganna won't with him after the Cipressa...

Pogacar sustaining the effort from Cipressa until the finish is not the problem. We know he can TT that until the finish. Rather, the problem is whether UAE can set such a pace that will drop the domestiques and reduce the group to like 10-20 guys where G2 syndrome can take effect. Remember that Cipressa is still only 5.6 km long with a 4.1% average. Also, as you said, there's even no guarantee that Pogacar can break away solo because the likes of MVDP, Wout, Ganna, etc., can still follow him there if they choose to do so.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Pogacar sustaining the effort from Cipressa until the finish is not the problem. We know he can TT that until the finish. Rather, the problem is whether UAE can set such a pace that will drop the domestiques and reduce the group to like 10-20 guys where G2 syndrome can take effect. Remember that Cipressa is still only 5.6 km long with a 4.1% average. Also, as you said, there's even no guarantee that Pogacar can break away solo because the likes of MVDP, Wout, Ganna, etc., can still follow him there if they choose to do so.

He needs Manie back and let him do a 90 km solo

 

[Salvarani]

The main problem of the Cipressa attacks is sustain the effort in the 9kms flat. He's the only one who has a shot to fo it, expecially in this new form of him. Anyway, where is written that MVP or WVA or Ganna won't with him after the Cipressa...

I guess it will depend on how large the gaps are after the Cipressa and if there is enough time to organize a chase, which will depend on how many teammates are left.

Will have a smaller group with only leaders left be able to cooperate, wait for others to come back, or will they attack each other to try and get away?

But as seen this year what happens before Cipressa is way more important. UAE ending up being swamped with 5-6 other teams trying to position themselves. Then they covered the road and first half of Cipressa went really slow. It took time for riders to get to the front. So it ended up being Poggio left as most times.

If UAE manage to drive the Capos and has the firepower to keep themselves in the front going into Cipressa to be able to ride hard from the bottom, it can get interesting. Could happen but will be hard. Not impossible though.

 

[Bombarolo]

Attacking during Cipressa is only possible if the peloton is already destroyed and down to pretty much only the leaders.

Therefore, it's almost impossible.

The more likely scenario is a nuclear attack on Poggio at the perfect moment with the others not at their best.

 

[Peyroteo94]

I guess it will depend on how large the gaps are after the Cipressa and if there is enough time to organize a chase, which will depend on how many teammates are left.

Will have a smaller group with only leaders left be able to cooperate, wait for others to come back, or will they attack each other to try and get away?

But as seen this year what happens before Cipressa is way more important. UAE ending up being swamped with 5-6 other teams trying to position themselves. Then they covered the road and first half of Cipressa went really slow. It took time for riders to get to the front. So it ended up being Poggio left as most times.

If UAE manage to drive the Capos and has the firepower to keep themselves in the front going into Cipressa to be able to ride hard from the bottom, it can get interesting. Could happen but will be hard. Not impossible though.

Politt
Wellens
Rui Oliveira
Vermeesh
Bjerg
These 5 guys need to be in MSR next year. They can win it.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Yes and no.

It was an extremely attritional race, which favors him, no matter how tired he is. It was all efforts so short it wasn't about climbing ability anymore. That's a pivotal difference. Even in de Ronde you have climbs of 1-2 minutes and the 4 minute Kwaremont, which is different from Glasgow.

Roubaix however is a race where there's 0 actual climbing, which means his greatest strength isn't used at all.

Yes, MVP has a great engine in terms of pure watts so he excels in attritional races, which have no climbs or only short anaerobic climbing. It's true that Pog loses watts per kilo advantage in a race like Roubaix and MVP being more explosive on flat (at the finish or on a cobbled section) is a problem for him. OTOH Roubaix can be a bit unpredictable as well (mechanicals, crashes), which could give Pog a better chance to win (I don't doubt he will be in contention for top spots).

 

[snipeheem]

Politt
Wellens
Rui Oliveira
Vermeesh
Bjerg
These 5 guys need to be in MSR next year. They can win it.

Narvaez

 

[Peyroteo94]

Narvaez

He will be there to launch him. Other 5 to put a hard tempo

 

[Salvarani]

Politt
Wellens
Rui Oliveira
Vermeesh
Bjerg
These 5 guys need to be in MSR next year. They can win it.

I agree but maybe not Oliveira.

Politt, Wellens, Vermeersch, Bjerg, Narvaez and Novak could/should be likely.

The last spot is tricky.

Do you pick another climber? Like Del Toro.

An all-rounder? Baroncini.

Another young talent? Christen or Morgado.

Someone to just be on the front on the flat? Laengen, who will be done after the first capos. Or someone like Oliveira as you suggested.

Covi has ridden MSR 4 times, after-all, so could be a bet as well.

 

[James M]

Please don't be rude to me: I read that post perfectly accurately. I am challenging whether you are being consistent in making the statement.

I have also read many posts in which you express delight that others are not keeping up with (i.e. competitive with) Pogacar. Do you believe that he is better than others do a degree at which results are predictable or not?

Yes ofc. But nothing new either just more extreme imo since he raised the level a few bars even. (if he gets hurt it equal the playing field again) - also the competition is very very good I might add its just that he is insane.

Sorry if you feelt I was rude that wasnt my intention at all. Im sure some dont like the predictability I get that no problem, thats perfectly fine and easy to get especially if you have a bone against him (not saying anyone particual have just talking in general), it just as I could argue more people like watching it - its sport you cant please em all I think thats normal too.

For instance im only talking about myself if I was given a choice to watch Thos Hushovd vs Niki Terpstra go at it in the biggest stage in the sport and it was really close and the suspension who was gonne win was high or watch Eddy Merckx plummet someone. I personally would choose to watch the latter anyday of the week, thats more fun for me, cause thats history, thats rare, thats special, the other is mediocer theres plenty of that in all sports , thats not what draws me into sport or get me excited no matter what sport it is, those rare generational talents are way more fun/exciting to watch for me, they are rare no matter what sport again talking personally if someone else feel different thats fine as I said, cant please em all in sport.

 

[Izzyeviel]

He needs Manie back and let him do a 90 km solo

He needs to attack on the Turchino.

 

[James M]

Cipressa attacks are like nuclear fusion. Always next year.

I would be shocked to see a solo on Cipressa, the flat section to Poggio is to long on wide open roads in every possible metric seems like a suicide attack - but then again weve seen things recently which I would think was the same. But I would be shocked to see it happen still, somewhat dont see that happening but yeah.

Politt
Wellens
Rui Oliveira
Vermeesh
Bjerg
These 5 guys need to be in MSR next year. They can win it.

Narvaez I think can be the vital piece for launch in MSR. Imo better version than Wellens as last man in that kinda circuit you have to include Narvaez into that equation he gonne be vital.

 

[scribers]

I guess it will depend on how large the gaps are after the Cipressa and if there is enough time to organize a chase, which will depend on how many teammates are left.

Will have a smaller group with only leaders left be able to cooperate, wait for others to come back, or will they attack each other to try and get away?

But as seen this year what happens before Cipressa is way more important. UAE ending up being swamped with 5-6 other teams trying to position themselves. Then they covered the road and first half of Cipressa went really slow. It took time for riders to get to the front. So it ended up being Poggio left as most times.

If UAE manage to drive the Capos and has the firepower to keep themselves in the front going into Cipressa to be able to ride hard from the bottom, it can get interesting. Could happen but will be hard. Not impossible though.

Positioning leading to the cipressa is everything. I did a review of last years race. Before the cipressa pogis team was driving hard at the front. Cameras could stay in the village bottle neck so we couldn’t see what happened, but at the base of the cipressa i think it was a few EF guys, all of the favorites, and pogi stuck behind them. Because pogi’s cipressa attempt was the worst kept secret in the peloton.

If pog and two capable climbers come out of that bottle neck first, he can gap and stay away.