But that fits MVDP perfectly and excludes Philipsen. Philipsen cant decide the outcome on his own, doesn't hava a chance to stay with Pog and can't win solo. MVDP can do all of this. The only way of Jasper winning is if somebody catches (MVDP) Pogacar for him. But then the likes of Pedersen/WVA/Matthews are very likely to be on the group as well and any of them beasts Pog in a sprint, so I don't see how you can claim that Philipsen is the one deciding the outcome.
Cipressa is a very easy climb where a peloton of 30 may be 5-10 seconds behind Pogacar. And as strong as his engine is, I see no chance of him holding a dedicated group of domestics. I don't think it's fair to compare MSR to any race Pogacar won this year.