Poggio probably too easy for Narvaez to be the difference against the top guys, he was nowhere last year and you need hard tempo grinders and Jhonny is more a man for a steep rise/medium mountain. Difficult to see a route to victory in MSR, can't drop heaver riders/better descenders by enough by the top, opportunist last 2k attack like Stuyven won't work because he's too high profile and will be marked, WVA/VDP or better beat him in a reduced sprint.
Either spend a week riding the Poggio descent and learning every corner such that 10 seconds at the top is enough, or go on the Cipressa and hope to god you can keep Evenepoel (when he's not injured), Ganna, Kung, Tarling or someone like that with you who doesn't want it going to a group sprint. He can hold off Van Der Poel but not 50 guys for 40 minutes.
Too much needs to go right in this race, the Poggio descent is just as important as the climb. This race never suited anyone more than Peter Sagan, and he never won it.