Teams & Riders Tadej Pogačar discussion thread

[KZD]

My takes to 2025:
He will not win MSR, not even close to win to be more precise.
He will destroy MVP in RVV after not being able to drop him in E3.
No PR
Easy win in AGR, FW and LBL
Easy win in Dauphiné against Vingegaard
Huge battle in the Tour against Vingegaard. He will win by a couple of minutes, the first TT will be a huge win for Pogacar because Vingegaard will need to attack and drop Pogacar, he will not be successful though.
Rest (unfortunately he will not race the Vuelta according to our cycling prophet).
WC double (a 105 km solo in the road race).
Another demolition in Lombardia.

I agree with almost everything but you forgot UAE Tour and Strade Bianche.

 

[Tymek]

Stuyven stayed with him and his best result in PR is 4th. That's probably the limit of what he can do in Roubaix unless he trains for it specifically

I don’t think so. You can’t compare stage race 1:1 to classics. Pog probably didn’t want to get away from Stuyven.

 

[Tymek]

He will not win MSR, not even close to win to be more precise.

This year he didn’t win only, because of Van der Poel chasing him for Philipsen. Next year after UAE work there won’t be any sprinter.
I also think that Van Aert will never win monument again so the only reasonable option here is Pog.

 

[Peyroteo94]

I agree with almost everything but you forgot UAE Tour and Strade Bianche.

That's a mere formality

 

[jono]

This year he didn’t win only, because of Van der Poel chasing him for Philipsen. Next year after UAE work there won’t be any sprinter.
I also think that Van Aert will never win monument again so the only reasonable option here is Pog.

So like 2023?

 

[Peyroteo94]

This year he didn’t win only, because of Van der Poel chasing him for Philipsen. Next year after UAE work there won’t be any sprinter.
I also think that Van Aert will never win monument again so the only reasonable option here is Pog.

He won't be able to drop his rivals again.

 

[snipeheem]

He won't be able to drop his rivals again.

Idk Narvaez is huge upgrade

 

[Froome]

This year he didn’t win only, because of Van der Poel chasing him for Philipsen. Next year after UAE work there won’t be any sprinter.
I also think that Van Aert will never win monument again so the only reasonable option here is Pog.

Van der poel wasn't going to beat Pogacar in the final sprint if he didn't wait for Philipsen?

 

[Peyroteo94]

Idk Narvaez is huge upgrade

Too much drafting in a shallow climb

 

[Tim Cahill]

Poggio probably too easy for Narvaez to be the difference against the top guys, he was nowhere last year and you need hard tempo grinders and Jhonny is more a man for a steep rise/medium mountain. Difficult to see a route to victory in MSR, can't drop heaver riders/better descenders by enough by the top, opportunist last 2k attack like Stuyven won't work because he's too high profile and will be marked, WVA/VDP or better beat him in a reduced sprint.

Either spend a week riding the Poggio descent and learning every corner such that 10 seconds at the top is enough, or go on the Cipressa and hope to god you can keep Evenepoel (when he's not injured), Ganna, Kung, Tarling or someone like that with you who doesn't want it going to a group sprint. He can hold off Van Der Poel but not 50 guys for 40 minutes.

Too much needs to go right in this race, the Poggio descent is just as important as the climb. This race never suited anyone more than Peter Sagan, and he never won it.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Poggio probably too easy for Narvaez to be the difference against the top guys, he was nowhere last year and you need hard tempo grinders and Jhonny is more a man for a steep rise/medium mountain. Difficult to see a route to victory in MSR, can't drop heaver riders/better descenders by enough by the top, opportunist last 2k attack like Stuyven won't work because he's too high profile and will be marked, WVA/VDP or better beat him in a reduced sprint.

Either spend a week riding the Poggio descent and learning every corner such that 10 seconds at the top is enough, or go on the Cipressa and hope to god you can keep Evenepoel (when he's not injured), Ganna, Kung, Tarling or someone like that with you who doesn't want it going to a group sprint. He can hold off Van Der Poel but not 50 guys for 40 minutes.

Too much needs to go right in this race, the Poggio descent is just as important as the climb. This race never suited anyone more than Peter Sagan, and he never won it.

I don't know how Boonen never won it too...

 

[Cookster15]

Huge battle in the Tour against Vingegaard. He will win by a couple of minutes, the first TT will be a huge win for Pogacar because Vingegaard will need to attack and drop Pogacar, he will not be successful though.

I see you have become more optimistic (realistic) of Pog vs Vingo since the ‘24 Tour. No more concern about Vingo’s superiority on hard, hot, long or high stages. Likewise Pog’s recovery can’t be questioned now. Not when he continued after securing the Giro/Tour double to destroy everyone with ease at the worlds and Lombardia.

The ball is in Vingo’s court to close an enormous gap crash or no crash. Just hope they both stay healthy and injury free so there are no excuses.

 

[James M]

Poggio probably too easy for Narvaez to be the difference against the top guys, he was nowhere last year and you need hard tempo grinders and Jhonny is more a man for a steep rise/medium mountain. Difficult to see a route to victory in MSR, can't drop heaver riders/better descenders by enough by the top, opportunist last 2k attack like Stuyven won't work because he's too high profile and will be marked, WVA/VDP or better beat him in a reduced sprint.

Either spend a week riding the Poggio descent and learning every corner such that 10 seconds at the top is enough, or go on the Cipressa and hope to god you can keep Evenepoel (when he's not injured), Ganna, Kung, Tarling or someone like that with you who doesn't want it going to a group sprint. He can hold off Van Der Poel but not 50 guys for 40 minutes.

Too much needs to go right in this race, the Poggio descent is just as important as the climb. This race never suited anyone more than Peter Sagan, and he never won it.

Yes sir I agree very much on everything here. Even though I think its gonne be much harder for Pogacar to win vs MvdP in PR than in RVV, Pogacar engine is so unmatched and so clear to the point he makes up technical deficits to MvdP even and most likely just gonne end up like when he stomped into RVV, with this level, his engine is simply to ridiculous.

I believe MSR remains his hardest race to win for many of these reasons you highlighted, and its so easy that his engine will never get used relative to others - and as you said to much needs to go right in that race with alot of x factors and not necessarily strenght things duo to the course. He also (almost) have to put the season on the line down Poggio, its just alot of things. For me remains the hardest monument for him to win.

 

[pupupi]

As a beginner who recently started watching cycling, I have a question. I've heard that Milan-San Remo is like a lottery, where all types of riders have a chance to win, making it hard for one rider to dominate. So how was Eddy Merckx able to win Milan-San Remo so many times? Was the course different back then? Or was it because the competition was weaker?

 

[James M]

As a beginner who recently started watching cycling, I have a question. I've heard that Milan-San Remo is like a lottery, where all types of riders have a chance to win, making it hard for one rider to dominate. So how was Eddy Merckx able to win Milan-San Remo so many times? Was the course different back then? Or was it because the competition was weaker?

He was the fastest sprinter. Rumours has it he swapped to aero bike while everyone else stopped to get more wine

 

[James M]

This is more as a joke and not serious but personally would have Strade as a monument over MSR for my taste but it also would be zero sprint stages in any GT, only rouleur and mountain stages so this obv not deep. (just a personal preference thing) Therse also zero reason to turn on MSR besides scenery before the last hour.

Give Strade 40km more and it has everything a monument needs for my taste. MSR is so piss easy course but I get the love for it as it represents the monument for sprinters and different from what the rest does which obv is as it should be. The monuments should cover every area so it def is nice dont get me wrong. - also its somewhat anticlimax as the course is so easy it gets so hard aswell to win which is kinda ironic but true.

 

[Cookster15]

I know we are joking but just to be clear, I don’t think we you can have grand tours with no sprint stages. Sprint stages provide an opportunity for the climbers and GC riders to recover. Without those the mountain stages would be boring: Little attacking and simply a race of survival / attrition. And sprint stages are still valuable to the towns that host them and teams who do not have a top class climbers. As long as there are not too many.

 

[scribers]

As a beginner who recently started watching cycling, I have a question. I've heard that Milan-San Remo is like a lottery, where all types of riders have a chance to win, making it hard for one rider to dominate. So how was Eddy Merckx able to win Milan-San Remo so many times? Was the course different back then? Or was it because the competition was weaker?

Bruyneel said merckx would take off at the exact some moment in each of his wins. He was just a stronger rider for this to happen.

 

[James M]

I know we are joking but just to be clear, I don’t we you can have grand tours with no sprint stages. Sprint stages provide an opportunity for the climbers and GC riders to recover. Without those the mountain stages would be boring: Little attacking and simply a race of survival / attrition. And sprint stages are still valuable to the towns that host them and teams who do not have a top class climbers.

It wasnt serious. Variety def adds flavour and gives the mountain stages extra suspense.

If im being real though could just hold back on using 7 sprint stages and add in a few rouleur ones gotte make Mvdp and the boys happy aswell, especially if the peloton gonne continue to ride the flat ones like they did this year as a new norm. But thats a different conversation for a different time.

 

[scribers]

I think anymore a roleur stage is just a sprint stage. Breakaway stages depends on if GC decides ut wants to partake. Politt said at the start riders come to him and ask if it’s worth going in the break that day. If politt would shrug it wasn’t worth it to those guys and they stay in the peloton

 

[Peyroteo94]

As a beginner who recently started watching cycling, I have a question. I've heard that Milan-San Remo is like a lottery, where all types of riders have a chance to win, making it hard for one rider to dominate. So how was Eddy Merckx able to win Milan-San Remo so many times? Was the course different back then? Or was it because the competition was weaker?

Competition was weaker and there weren't sprinters at all.

 

[Peyroteo94]

I see you have become more optimistic (realistic) of Pog vs Vingo since the ‘24 Tour. No more concern about Vingo’s superiority on hard, hot, long or high stages. Likewise Pog’s recovery can’t be questioned now. Not when he continued after securing the Giro/Tour double to destroy everyone with ease at the worlds and Lombardia.

The ball is in Vingo’s court to close an enormous gap crash or no crash. Just hope they both stay healthy and injury free so there are no excuses.

Even after 2023, I thought Pogi only lost the Tour because he didn't have a good preparation. With a perfect preparation, he wouldn't lose any time in Marie Blanque (he wouldn't win time in Cauterets though) so he would go to the TT with probably a 45 seconds gap.

 

[Peyroteo94]

He is already feeling the pressure of being compared to Pogacar. Poor Del Toro... Ayuso got compared too and he has not delivering good performances in GTs.

UAE gem Del Toro cycles too fast for his friends, but not (yet) as fast as Pogacar: "Metrics much better"

Third in the Down Under Classic, stage win and third in the Tour Down Under, fourth in the time trial in the Algarve, fourth in the Tirreno-Adriatico, seventh in the Basque Country, stage and overall...

www.idlprocycling.com

 

[Red Rick]

Races that Pog has trouble winning are illegitimate races confirmed.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Races that Pog has trouble winning are illegitimate races confirmed.

Interesting that some years ago, you were moaning about MSR route... you were even open to adding Pompeiana between Cipressa and Poggio or putting some climbs to increase hardness in the race.