Teams & Riders Tadej Pogačar discussion thread

[YavorD]

MSR is can be a recipe race (see Merckx's pattern). If Pogi solves it, he can rinse and repeat until organizers change the course. His remaining three options are a ridiculously long solo (pick anywhere up the road that he can get a split), Cipressa solo, or jump out from the selection from the finish stretch.

But the first 2 options require the relative difference of strength between him and the peloton to be huge in his favour and that's unlikely to last long.
The last one is a possibility but none of the options seems like recipe for a long term success.

 

[scribers]

I am curious to see what UAE is cooking. Cipressa launch seems like the likliest for success, but they have to do a better job managing the bottleneck at the base. This was done in the 90's, bruyneel said, and given the octane present around at the time, Bruyneel considered it unthinkable until now.

Gapping close to the finish is possibly, but not such a high probability of success unless a greater selection of strong finishers has been excluded (see cipressa again to shake these off better)

Long solo seems highly unlikely to me too. But what he did at Worlds cannot be overlooked in terms of possibility. Still, very low probability.

 

[Poursuivant]

I am curious to see what UAE is cooking. Cipressa launch seems like the likliest for success, but they have to do a better job managing the bottleneck at the base. This was done in the 90's, bruyneel said, and given the octane present around at the time, Bruyneel considered it unthinkable until now.

Gapping close to the finish is possibly, but not such a high probability of success unless a greater selection of strong finishers has been excluded (see cipressa again to shake these off better)

Long solo seems highly unlikely to me too. But what he did at Worlds cannot be overlooked in terms of possibility. Still, very low probability.

I think he will definitely get them to drill it as much as they can on the Cipressa and he will launch. He will want to go alone but having 2/3 stay with him might be beneficial to hold off the pack before Poggio.

 

[Peyroteo94]

I think he could be extremely competitive 10 years from now given his qualities

I don't believe it. No other rider could stay 15 years at his best

 

[scribers]

Best and competitive are two different things, and not such a wide gap to the competition given Pogi's qualities.

 

[Berniece]

Good thing he’s not actually going for Roubaix in this shape, he would be destroyed by WVA and MVDP

 

[Peyroteo94]

Good thing he’s not actually going for Roubaix in this shape, he would be destroyed by WVA and MVDP

Heard this in 2022 too... guess what, MVP was on the ropes trying to follow Pogi in Paterberg

 

[Peyroteo94]

Best and competitive are two different things, and not such a wide gap to the competition given Pogi's qualities.

Valverde was competitive in GTs, not strong and close enough to win GTs (I know he won one but that Vuelta was tailormade for him and Cadel's bad luck striked again).

 

[Lequack]

Pog is such a tease

 

[Peyroteo94]

Pog is such a tease

Those legs look ready to rock

 

[Peyroteo94]

Pogacar
Vine
Molano
Bjerg
Novak
Vermeersch
Herregodts

This team is great for echelons

 

[hayneplane]

Pogacar
Vine
Molano
Bjerg
Novak
Vermeersch
Herregodts

This team is great for excelons

Startlist is still very incomplete but currently the best climbers in the race are Gall, Pellizzari, Carlos Rodriguez and Rubio along with Van Eetvelt who won here last year.

All of those will lose at least 30 seconds in the ITT so I have a hard time believing anyone will finish within 90 seconds of Pogacar on GC.

 

[Cookster15]

Pog is such a tease

This is his old bike right? Not the new super aero model?

 

[MerkantilMerch]

I think Paris Roubaix profile is going to be hard to for Pogi. I have a hard time understanding at which point he could attack and shake off MVP from his wheel. Theres no hill and a lot of long straight sections haha
Even at the WC he broke away on the flat but the hills is what kept him away (in addition of other factors ofc ) until the finish line.

 

[scribers]

P-R selections are a combination of luck (mechanical/accidents) and sheer strength. It's not so much shaking someone at key moments (less the luck factor), it just not being able to stay on that wheel over a sustained period of time.

 

[MerkantilMerch]

P-R selections are a combination of luck (mechanical/accidents) and sheer strength. It's not so much shaking someone at key moments (less the luck factor), it just not being able to stay on that wheel over a sustained period of time.

Thats the problem Pogi usually use these key moments. Here with no special points to do an attack I dont see where he can go away from MVP.

 

[Shortcut]

Thats the problem Pogi usually use these key moments. Here with no special points to do an attack I dont see where he can go away from MVP.

I know Pogi is always unpredictable but if he can stays in MvDP wheel without attacking, that would already be amazing. BUT everytime Pogi rode on cobbles or gravel he looked as the strongest guy out there, even on the flat stages.

 

[Berniece]

Heard this in 2022 too... guess what, MVP was on the ropes trying to follow Pogi in Paterberg

Ah yes, exactly the same

 

[Peyroteo94]

Startlist is still very incomplete but currently the best climbers in the race are Gall, Pellizzari, Carlos Rodriguez and Rubio along with Van Eetvelt who won here last year.

All of those will lose at least 30 seconds in the ITT so I have a hard time believing anyone will finish within 90 seconds of Pogacar on GC.

I don't know if he will win with a 90 seconds gap. Neither of UAE tour's climbs produced big gaps. Jebel Jais is normally an uphill sprint so he needs to gain almost a minute in Jebel Hafeet

 

[Monsi]

Paris-Roubaix remains off Tadej Pogačar's race plan (for now)

Slovenian completes recon of Flanders, Roubaix and Gent-Wevelgem alongside Tim Wellens and Fabio Baldato

dnlbenson.substack.com

Some more details of that Arenberg recon from Matxin. Roubaix may be off for now but maybe the door to a Pogi Roubaix debut this year may not be totally closed.

 

[Salvarani]

They probably want to see how the classics goes and how he feels before making a commitment.

Nothing wrong with getting some practice in the meantime. He also done well in the Tour stages that has included cobbles. He will definitely try to go for it in the future.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Ah yes, exactly the same

Not exactly the same but it was similar. People were talking about Pogacar being able (or maybe not) to follow both Vans. Guess what, he almost dropped MVP in Paterberg. Pogacar is from another planet, don't compare him with MVP or WVA.

 

[Peyroteo94]

They probably want to see how the classics goes and how he feels before making a commitment.

Nothing wrong with getting some practice in the meantime. He also done well in the Tour stages that has included cobbles. He will definitely try to go for it in the future.

Yes, a little bit like the Vuelta in previous years. He was supposed to ride the Vuelta in 2022 but he didn't race it. I think he will race PR if everything goes according the plan. He would not waste time if PR wasn't in his bucket list this year.

 

[AmRacer]

Yes, a little bit like the Vuelta in previous years. He was supposed to ride the Vuelta in 2022 but he didn't race it. I think he will race PR if everything goes according the plan. He would not waste time if PR wasn't in his bucket list this year.

If he finally wins MSR...

 

[Berniece]

Not exactly the same but it was similar. People were talking about Pogacar being able (or maybe not) to follow both Vans. Guess what, he almost dropped MVP in Paterberg. Pogacar is from another planet, don't compare him with MVP or WVA.

You clearly know better than Pogacar himself who said he needs to train differently and weigh a bit more to really be a contender for Roubaix. Writing things like that is why I barely take you seriously. This echo chamber isn't helping you think logically.

And sure, Pogacar is from another planet, he has never lost a monument, classic or WC against MVDP or WVA. Oh wait...