Teams & Riders Tadej Pogačar discussion thread

[Peyroteo94]

It's surprising to see that the second climb of the Kwaremont was faster than the third, because the third is when he created the gap. I suppose the early, gentler part was faster the second time, because they come flying at the foot with the whole bunch. I don't think he went 100% full on the second Kwaremont and the Koppenberg. He just used the succession of climbs to wear out the others, turning it into a war of attrition. He even attacked once on a slope in between two official climbs. As soon as he had a small gap on the third Kwaremont, there couldn't be much doubt about the outcome.

Fatigue my friend. This is why he is better than MVP. He recovers better.

 

[Peyroteo94]

I really believe Pogacar will surpass the GT victories and also the monuments.
And in my book, this is more than enough.

For me, he needs to win all 5 monuments and all 3 GTs. GTs (excluding crashes) is a mere formality.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

I really believe Pogacar will surpass the GT victories and also the monuments.
And in my book, this is more than enough.

Both are huge tasks. GT victories even more unlikely than monuments.

 

[James M]

Thinking about it, Pogacar just dipped into Ronde van Vlaanderen without doing any pre-build-up races (leaving the crumbs to the rest). He simply entered RVV without any preparation races and then left.

I came, I saw, I conquered is only fitting.

 

[AmRacer]

Thinking about it, Pogacar just dipped into Ronde van Vlaanderen without doing any pre-build-up races (leaving the crumbs to the rest). He simply entered RVV without any preparation races and then left.

I came, I saw, I conquered is only fitting.

Wasn't he supposed to ride E3 or Dwars, but changed mind after MSR?

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Wasn't he supposed to ride E3 or Dwars, but changed mind after MSR?

He added Roubaix to the schedule so he decided to focus on the monuments. Won't be surprised if he skips Amstel (and maybe Fleche).

 

[James M]

It's surprising to see that the second climb of the Kwaremont was faster than the third, because the third is when he created the gap. I suppose the early, gentler part was faster the second time, because they come flying at the foot with the whole bunch. I don't think he went 100% full on the second Kwaremont and the Koppenberg. He just used the succession of climbs to wear out the others, turning it into a war of attrition. He even attacked once on a slope in between two official climbs. As soon as he had a small gap on the third Kwaremont, there couldn't be much doubt about the outcome.

He destroyed anyone trying to follow on the second Kwaremont. That's why the only chance against him was not even to try to follow but to gamble—it was always the only option. He didn’t even attack; he simply rode up to his maximum limit, like we see him do in all races. In more mountainous classics or high-altitude mountains, he doesn’t go all out in a single attack. Instead, he rides up to his maximum limit, which just so happens to be way, way over the limit for everyone else.

In every single race, the others start producing lactic acid trying to follow as their bodies shift from aerobic metabolism to anaerobic metabolism (without oxygen) and they all kill themselves. But Pogacar just keeps going at the same relentless pace. In this case, attack after attack, like it’s nothing. It’s a blueprint he follows in every race mountain stage or classics, its the same everytime..

 

[Rechtschreibfehler]

Both are huge tasks. GT victories even more unlikely than monuments.

Very much depends on how long he has the level and the motivation to win them. But say he can win both GTs and Monuments untill he is 34. That's 7 more seasons, and 8 GT seasons as this one has not started yet. He'd have to average one GT per season to beat Merckx GT count. Does not seem totally outlandish to me. He needs 12 more, which would be 1,5 per season (including +1,5 this season). Given that he has 8 wins in 19 starts, it's not impossible but really hard. Right now it's not unrealistic to say he ends the season with 10 monuments to his name. Than he'd have 7 seasons for another 10. Hard, but also not totally outlandish (given his current level).

 

[CyclistAbi]

Rogla is a beast, but he started cycling a little too late.

Otherwise I think he would be on par with Vingegaard on GTs, and be able to win WC and LBL.

He did win LBL. As for other monuments, GTs and WC, the plan still is to win a couple more. Anyway, lets focus on Pogi and PR now, as i am interested in seeing if he will be able to be dominant on this race. Or is this the race on where he will look human. I don't know if he is chubby enough for winning this race and hence best to wait and see.

 

[James M]

Wasn't he supposed to ride E3 or Dwars, but changed mind after MSR?

PR being added, it was only sensible to remove it which they decided during the UAE Tour early this season.

I'm curious what he’ll do about Amstel and Flèche. Not sure if he’ll skip them imo. Flèche, for him, is just a medium training ride. I guess it depends on his status after PR. Personally, I don’t think he’ll skip them (maybe Amstel, but I doubt it—let’s see).

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Very much depends on how long he has the level and the motivation to win them. But say he can win both GTs and Monuments untill he is 34. That's 7 more seasons, and 8 GT seasons as this one has not started yet. He'd have to average one GT per season to beat Merckx GT count. Does not seem totally outlandish to me. He needs 12 more, which would be 1,5 per season. Given that he has 8 wins in 19 starts, it's not impossible but really hard. Right now it's not unrealistic to say he ends the season with 10 monuments to his name. Than he'd have 7 seasons for another 10. Hard, but also not totally outlandish (given his current level).

Almost 8 more seasons (till 2032) in winning prime is a huge assumption. Alternatively it's 5-6 more seasons of peak performance (aka last year), still very hard. Doable but very hard to reach, the more we extend time horizon, the more variables are in play.

 

[Rechtschreibfehler]

Almost 8 more seasons (till 2032) in winning prime is a huge assumption. Alternatively it's 5-6 more seasons of peak performance (aka last year), still very hard. Doable but very hard to reach, the more we extend time horizon, the more variables in play.

Well I am not assuming he will be as dominant as he's now until than. But the track he is now on he might have half of the needed GTs and 5 more monuments in his bag at the end of next season. And mind you: he does not need super Pogi level to win a GT or a Monument. I can see him winning more tactically later on, he also has a pretty good sprint for Lombardia and Liege.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Well I am not assuming he will be as dominant as he's now until than. But the track he is now on he might have half of the needed GTs and 5 more monuments in his bag at the end of next season. And mind you: he does not need super Pogi level to win a GT or a Monument. I can see him winning more tactically later on, he also has a pretty good sprint for Lombardia and Liege.

I know but he's already had 5 seasons of his prime. He will have to end up with 12-13 prime seasons. It hardly ever happens in cycling, not in case of the greatest guys of all time.

 

[AmRacer]

PR being added, it was only sensible to remove it which they decided during the UAE Tour early this season.

I'm curious what he’ll do about Amstel and Flèche. Not sure if he’ll skip them imo. Flèche, for him, is just a medium training ride. I guess it depends on his status after PR. Personally, I don’t think he’ll skip them (maybe Amstel, but I doubt it—let’s see).

Hope he rides Fleche and Amstel, Remco is scheduled to be there.

 

[MerkantilMerch]

I know but he's already had 5 seasons of his prime. He will have to end up with 12-13 prime seasons. It hardly ever happens in cycling, not in case of the greatest guys of all time.

2020-2023 Pogi wasnt his prime. He didnt know how to train, Bardet said it. Thats the scary thing.

Pogi entered his prime last year.

 

[Rechtschreibfehler]

I know but he's already had 5 seasons of his prime. He will have to end up with 12-13 prime seasons. If hardly ever happens in cycling, not in case of the greatest guys of all time.

How do you define prime? Years in which one typically is in the beste biophysiological state for sports or peak performance years? I get your point though. But on the other hand you can be very good pretty long in endurance sports, and he could change his approach later on. If he wins a ton the next few seasons, going for more selected targets might be a way to achieve it even with a overall not peak level anymore. I am not arguing that it's not a huge taskt and less likely than it is likely, all I am saying given his current level, it does not seem totally outlandish to me.

 

[James M]

It’s impossible to know if he has even entered his prime yet. Just because his level is outrageous doesn’t automatically mean he is in his prime. We have no indicators suggesting he won’t continue to improve further, as he has already done this year. It’s hard to fathom, but objectively, it’s a fact. It might be the case but we dont know.

At the same time he is still only 26 and not unlikely he will just continue to improve, we dont know if he infact has entered his prime for a fact even or just continue to further improve - yet.

 

[Shortcut]

I hope he skips Fleche and Amstel. It is all about LBL this spring. If he wins it, then would already be his best spring season ever. He never has won 2 monuments in spring.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Some people said MVP did a lot of work to catch Pogacar. And say "What?" He did a half pull, almost all the work was done by Pogacar as you can in the video below.

View: https://youtu.be/3I3YLLzmVh0?si=8gXhlKc1f1U4HP8N

 

[Peyroteo94]

It’s impossible to know if he has even entered his prime yet. Just because his level is outrageous doesn’t automatically mean he is in his prime. We have no indicators suggesting he won’t continue to improve further, as he has already done this year. It’s hard to fathom, but objectively, it’s a fact. It might be the case but we dont know.

At the same time he is still only 26 and not unlikely he will just continue to improve, we dont know if he infact has entered his prime for a fact even or just continue to further improve - yet.

You are absolutely right and this is scary. I still remember when we thought he was at his peak in 2021 due to his incredible level.

 

[2WpK]

Can’t wait to hear bruyneel admit he was wrong and struggle to pick a stronger rider for P-R

I completely ignore Bruyneel since he claimed to have inside info when he was just repeating what he read on this Forum last year.

 

[bNator]

For me, he needs to win all 5 monuments and all 3 GTs. GTs (excluding crashes) is a mere formality.

I don't think in order to be considered GOAT, he needs to win MSR or Vuelta if he manages to win other GTs/monuments several more times in a similarly convincing manner as he does now. Vuelta and MSR are both firmly in the bottom half of GTs/Monuments, ranked by prestige and can easily be compensated by any other race of the same category.

At the same time, I also don't think he needs to match Merckx numbers to be considered GOAT by the majority over Merckx just because times are so different now and it's that much harder to pull off the same results as it was in the 70s. If Pog wins somewhere in the area of 5 TDFs, 5 other GTs, 15 monuments and 2 WCs it's going to be enough IMO. If we ask who is the greatest F1 driver of all times, very few will say Schumacher or Hamilton - most will go with Senna even though his results are no match for the former two gentlemen.

Pog's greatness will be painfully obvious once he stops and we're back to business as usual - classics won by classics specialists and GTs won by stage-race specialists. And at that point, a fair few more people will be on the GOAT bandwagon than they are today.

 

[2WpK]

Stunning victory by the GOAT. His durability is his greatest asset.

I was super impressed by his team's efforts (the ones who survived the crash)

MVP was over confident going in.

Hope he survives PR without any injuries. It is going to be difficult for him due to the lack of climbs.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

2020-2023 Pogi wasnt his prime. He didnt know how to train, Bardet said it. Thats the scary thing.

Pogi entered his prime last year.

How do you define prime? Years in which one typically is in the beste biophysiological state for sports or peak performance years? I get your point though. But on the other hand you can be very good pretty long in endurance sports, and he could change his approach later on. If he wins a ton the next few seasons, going for more selected targets might be a way to achieve it even with a overall not peak level anymore. I am not arguing that it's not a huge taskt and less likely than it is likely, all I am saying given his current level, it does not seem totally outlandish to me.

By prime I mean level good enough to win big races on consistent basis. History shows that almost no big champion was able to do it for more than a decade so it's very hard.

As for 2024, Pogacar entered his peak years (not prime), it usually lasts considerably shorter than prime.

 

[JoãoRamos]

Both are huge tasks. GT victories even more unlikely than monuments.

When he gets 6 TdF, then he can focus on Giros and Vueltas.

In 5 years, focusing only on them, he can get around 6 to more GTs. So I think is doable.

6 Tours + 4 Giros + 4 Vueltas

Monuments, imho, are more difficult for him to surpass Merckx.

He needs 12 more, and 2 of them (MSR and P-R) are very tough for him.