Teams & Riders Tadej Pogačar discussion thread

[Cycling111]

Historically Vingo won big in 1 single stage. So I guess part of the strategy is to try their luck

Along with a collapse by Pogacar.

Pogacar only has to follow his wheel, unlike in 2022, when he had to attack several times since Granon.
In 2023 Loze, he collapsed due to poor preparation.

If Pogacar loses four minutes this year, it will be due to illness.
Vingegaard hasn't doppe Pogacar for two years, there were even days in 2023 Tour that Pogacar dopped Vingegaard. Now he has to diroppe him and get 4 minutes.

The situation isn't remotely similar to those years. What's more likely is a PDB scenario: a strong attack by Vingegaard, Pogacar on his wheel, and a counterattack.

 

[kingjr]

Mads Pedersen doesn't give anything . And it's not the only time Pogacar has beaten Pedersen in a sprint. He also did it in San Remo 2023.

Pogacar's World Championship was heroic. VDP was training for the Tour, Van Aert retired early for the birth of his child and had more rest. Pedresen the same.
Pogacar arrived exhausted after his injury and the collapse in Loze.

Remco, who was really strong, judging by his ITT, was unable to fight in the main group.

That World Championship for Pogacar is one of his greatest physical and mental efforts. After the injury and the Tour, not everyone would have gone.

As I said, it doesn't diminish his performance. But Mads Pedersen made a massive tactical blunder in the final, from which Tadej benefited.

 

[ppanther92]

Historically Vingo won big in 1 single stage. So I guess part of the strategy is to try their luck

But even if Vingo manages to drop Pogi in week three (and thats a big if) - Granon 2022 would not be nearly enough, Courchevel 2023 already barely (lost 5:45 that day).

 

[Peyroteo94]

Pogacar lost the stage because Vingegaard didn't close the gap, yellow jersey riding, defending perfectly, to the point of gaining time on everyone.
And as added bonus UAE beat upYates, Soler,Navarez and asked a little less of guys who don't feel good. Pogacar likely listening to loud criticism that UAE eats too much of the candy, it cost Pogacar nothing to allow another rider, way off the back to have his day.. Intelligent racing, good sportsmanship, Pogacar taking time to congratulate winner as he sat on the ground, trying to recover.

Sivakov lost 1 minute to Thymen

 

[scribers]

I came away exactly the opposite, Visma @10 days of constant heat, trying to pressure Pogacar for what looked like no obvious reason.
Visma demanding the absolute best, the limit of their riders, epic fail.
And the achievable objectives after mid race setbacks like stage wins still are possible, but today's efforts were complete disaster, Vingegaard still losing time to Pogacar, putting out obvious energy that Pogacar did not.. and in multiple ways,

UAE all hands on deck taking turns burying themselves to keep pace, Pogacar out of wind, out of trouble.
Visma riding again all over the place spent Yates, Kuss for not..Yates giving back 6+ today ,Sepp 8+ no stage, nothing.
And the other rider involved in all the controversy, he dropped completely again today, now 32+ minutes back in GC, and same... was nowhere in today's stage.
Your description of digs is accurate, I describe what I saw was Vigegaard doing unnecessary, fruitless uphill intervals that Pogacar countered, mouth closed, in the saddle, apparently easy effort..and the digs cost Jonas any energy reserves for final sprint.. It looked like there was only the most remote, unlikely scenario for Ving to lose any time to Pogacar, instead a micro gain for yellow jersey. Each day I ask what are Visma doing.. Each day I more puzzled than day before.. The time buffer that Vigegaard has can be conserved if managed intelligently.. I have no confidence that is going to happen.
And I completely agree with you that Jonas is testing Pog..my questions day after day are why? Why so often?
Impressed by post race interviews with Vingegaard, he is mentally very strong..

I am saying the tactics RIGHT NOW are worth respect. Everything before they were attempting to break the unbreakable.

As of this moment, pogi is down is primary liuetentant and Sivakov & Yates are well below their hopeful expectiations. Normally, this would make a GC opponent vulnerable, but this isn't a normal GC opponent.

To the topic of Jonas testing pogi now or when, he is running out of road. They have to ATTACK now.

 

[Cycling111]

I think the accident is being underestimated because it's Pogacar. If Vingegaard had that arm wound and a blow to his hip, he'd be called a hero.

The arm wound is huge. It's uncomfortable to sleep on, and the body wastes energy healing it.

And the blows hurt more with the days. I don't know the percentage, but something must be affecting him.

 

[scribers]

Jorg is the bait. How do they play it? Let UAE tear their wheels off trying to keep him out of the break? Invest energy keeping him close and drafting Vingo into a launch place?

 

[Valv.Piti]

Pog wanted to win the stage. But a combianation of not feeling super, super well, Arensman being super strong, headwind and a mediocre team made it so that it wasn't worth it in the end. He will have three days until Ventoux to recover from the efforts of the Pyrenees and his crash for a fresh 1 hour effort from Bedoin with a huge leadout from Narvaez halfway up to Chalet Reynard, and from that point the Tour is effectively over and we are talking 6 minutes to Jonas

 

[jono]

I think the accident is being underestimated because it's Pogacar. If Vingegaard had that arm wound and a blow to his hip, he'd be called a hero.

The arm wound is huge. It's uncomfortable to sleep on, and the body wastes energy healing it.

And the blows hurt more with the days. I don't know the percentage, but something must be affecting him.

Yes, because the one thing we all see in cycling coverage is a lack of praise for Pogacar....

 

[Cycling111]

Yes, because the one thing we all see in cycling coverage is a lack of praise for Pogacar....

I've read real dramas in other cyclists' threads about less serious crashes.

But yes, accidents and abrasions affect everyone except Pogacar.

 

[Salvarani]

What if he had been struck by lightning? For me, it was clear after Peyresourde that if anyone wins the stage from the break, it would be Arensman. There was definitely no reason to chase this hard anymore at the bottom of the final climb, unless they still had an eye on possibly winning the stage themselves.

There was reason to control the group and the race for him. Pace high enough to neutralize action on the final climb.

Otherwise riders would try to start to get away if there was no order, no team taking control.

 

[Peyroteo94]

I am saying the tactics RIGHT NOW are worth respect. Everything before they were attempting to break the unbreakable.

As of this moment, pogi is down is primary liuetentant and Sivakov & Yates are well below their hopeful expectiations. Normally, this would make a GC opponent vulnerable, but this isn't a normal GC opponent.

To the topic of Jonas testing pogi now or when, he is running out of road. They have to ATTACK now.

They will go crazy on both Ventoux and Loze so 2 stage wins for Pogi if he is able to follow Vingo.

 

[kingjr]

There was reason to control the group and the race for him. Pace high enough to neutralize action on the final climb.

Otherwise riders would try to start to get away if there was no order, no team taking control.

Possibly, but this was originally about claims that UAE just didn't want anyone from Visma to win.

 

[Peyroteo94]

I think the accident is being underestimated because it's Pogacar. If Vingegaard had that arm wound and a blow to his hip, he'd be called a hero.

The arm wound is huge. It's uncomfortable to sleep on, and the body wastes energy healing it.

And the blows hurt more with the days. I don't know the percentage, but something must be affecting him.

Don't worry, he has 2 days to rest before Poggenheimer

 

[Cycling111]

Possibly, but this was originally about claims that UAE just didn't want anyone from Visma to win.

That theory is shattered by Simon's victory the other day. They did nothing to prevent it.

I read on X that they made an exception because he's Adam's brother . I think UAE will care more about he won the Giro against them. LOL
I don't think they have anything against Kuss that they don't have against Simon.

 

[Peyroteo94]

That theory is shattered by Simon's victory the other day. They did nothing to prevent it.

I read on X that they made an exception because he's Adam's brother . I think UAE will care more about he won the Giro against them. LOL
I don't think they have anything against Kuss that they don't have against Simon.

Exactly. They let Simon win the stage.

 

[Rackham]

Random fact I noticed during the broadcast: at one point Pog coughed during the stage today. He covered his mouth as well when he did so, which I thought was legitimately polite.

 

[Salvarani]

Possibly, but this was originally about claims that UAE just didn't want anyone from Visma to win.

Who knows.

But it just makes sense to keep a decent pace so you can control the race as well on a hard stage, that comes at the end of two other ones where you have put out big efforts. Today was also a big effort and many climbing metres. These type super-hard stages often turn-out this way though, because it is easy to blow-up if try to do too much or go to early. It just becomes an elimination race.

 

[Lorzenz08]

Along with a collapse by Pogacar.

Pogacar only has to follow his wheel, unlike in 2022, when he had to attack several times since Granon.
In 2023 Loze, he collapsed due to poor preparation.

If Pogacar loses four minutes this year, it will be due to illness.
Vingegaard hasn't doppe Pogacar for two years, there were even days in 2023 Tour that Pogacar dopped Vingegaard. Now he has to diroppe him and get 4 minutes.

The situation isn't remotely similar to those years. What's more likely is a PDB scenario: a strong attack by Vingegaard, Pogacar on his wheel, and a counterattack.

Yes I think so as well, I was just guessing what Jumbo are trying to do.

Because in 2023, even though Pogi collapsed. Jumbo said they had "ticked" these exact 2 days (ITT and Loze) as the 2 key days where apprently they knew they would take Pogi a lot of time. They supposedly knew even before the TdF started

 

[hayneplane]

Who knows.

But it just makes sense to keep a decent pace so you can control the race as well on a hard stage, that comes at the end of two other ones where you have put out big efforts. Today was also a big effort and many climbing metres. These type super-hard stages often turn-out this way though, because it is easy to blow-up if try to do too much or go to early. It just becomes an elimination race.

Also that neither of the last 2 climbs were legitimately hard enough to naturally shred the GC group down to 6-8 riders even without major attacks.

Had this stage been deep in week 3 the damage would have been far greater as the attrition rate would have been more significant.

 

[Barnacle Bill]

Sometimes even cannibals have eaten their fill. But he'll be hungry again soon enough...

Spoiler

Stage 14 monsieur? Or can I tempt you with a naughty little Ventoux '25?

 

[Peyroteo94]

Along with a collapse by Pogacar.

Pogacar only has to follow his wheel, unlike in 2022, when he had to attack several times since Granon.
In 2023 Loze, he collapsed due to poor preparation.

If Pogacar loses four minutes this year, it will be due to illness.
Vingegaard hasn't doppe Pogacar for two years, there were even days in 2023 Tour that Pogacar dopped Vingegaard. Now he has to diroppe him and get 4 minutes.

The situation isn't remotely similar to those years. What's more likely is a PDB scenario: a strong attack by Vingegaard, Pogacar on his wheel, and a counterattack.

Pogacar will not collapse this year.

 

[Oldman]

I am saying the tactics RIGHT NOW are worth respect. Everything before they were attempting to break the unbreakable.

As of this moment, pogi is down is primary liuetentant and Sivakov & Yates are well below their hopeful expectiations. Normally, this would make a GC opponent vulnerable, but this isn't a normal GC opponent.

To the topic of Jonas testing pogi now or when, he is running out of road. They have to ATTACK now.

For that to happen Jonas has to actually put Pogacar in discomfort. The expense of effort is as Unchained and others have pointed out. They walked in the door with a "kick ass" strategy and they've managed to kick their own. Remco being underprepared for the stress of 3 weeks also works against JV as there are fewer riders that pose a risk to UAE. Until an RBH or Ineos rider gets 4 minutes up the road or more; Pogacar can just wait until Jonas rises to defend his second place. It'll take some gastronomical anomaly like the one that caused him to slip out of a pack of 30 when no one was attacking and Jonas won or an accident.

 

[yaf2]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1946650999176774004

View: https://x.com/tomdanielson/status/1946650999176774004?t=-jy9yrfsITUPNqfx5opFXA&s=19

 

[Valv.Piti]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1946650999176774004

View: https://x.com/tomdanielson/status/1946650999176774004?t=-jy9yrfsITUPNqfx5opFXA&s=19

Great analysis, I agree with most of his points. In regards to Tadej, thats also how I read him today. Will need a couple of easier days, hopefully break goes relatively easy tomorrow and then a rest day into full launch