Hello everyone, my first post here even though I've been casually browsing this forum for a while.
I think the momentum has shifted a lot since the beginning of the Tour. Before the start there was an almost unanimous consent over here that Pog will destroy the Tour and break all the climbing records. It was also the same regarding the gap to Vingegaard and that they are not in the same league anymore.
However things are not actually like that, especially the later, and Vingo can still hurt and push him a lot. I think the discussion about conserving energy for Vuelta is actually irrelevant at this point, because, as I was saying, the momentum is shifting day by day, Vingo is gaining more and more confidence and I feel that even if Pog hangs on and wins the Tour, if Vingo manages to drop him even a single time until the end, what do you guys think will happen in the Vuelta ? At the moment I am struggling to see a scenario where Pog could drop Vingo again, either in the Tour or Vuelta if they face each other again this year.
The reality is that Pogacar only dropped Vingo one single time this Tour and that was after an imense lead out by Narvaez. I would dare to say the gap isn't that big, if there even is one at the moment. After the demolition in Dauphine things just went pretty 'underwhelming' in the Tour, even if it sounds harsh.
The team has been very bad (except for Narvaez and Wellens), and unlucky with Almeida's crash but the only other possible explanation that I can find is that Vingo definitely came undercooked in the Dauphine and that Pog peaked a little bit too soon. Can't be just the bike or the crash. Or maybe we need to accept the reality that, again, the gap between him and Vingo maybe doesn't exist at the moment.
Anyways, sorry for the long post, I lost a lot of confidence after the last days, just hoping he can somehow hang on and take this over the line, but it will be very, very hard and Visma & Vingo will put him through hell.