- Jun 17, 2024
- 1,260
- 2,975
- 8,180
Pogacar and MvdP have won 15 of the last 17 major one-day races (Monuments/WC). The two they didnt win were MSR, where MvdP waited for Philipsen, and Liege, where Pogacar crashed out.
- Mar 20, 2022
- 13,342
- 18,093
- 22,180
- Mar 20, 2022
- 13,342
- 18,093
- 22,180
You should count Olympics IMO.
5 Races in 2025
7 races in 2024
6 races in 2023
Since 2023, we had 18 major one day races and Remco won 2, Philipsen 1 and MVP/Pogacar 15 wins.
We still have GdL where Pogacar is a strong favorite so there is a possibility MVP/Pogacar won 17 of the last 20 major one day races.
- Oct 30, 2023
- 5,336
- 8,253
- 16,180
Brilliant thinking. That’s the 5D chess vaughters wishes he was playing
- Mar 26, 2023
- 368
- 809
- 4,480
- Mar 20, 2022
- 13,342
- 18,093
- 22,180
- Jul 8, 2017
- 2,425
- 3,115
- 17,180
Yeah, 3 riders are winning 22 of the last 25 (going back to 2022), with 2 of them winning 19, big one day races and you're telling me that competition nowadays is big...
Certainly the stats don't confirm it.
The scary thing is that similar thing applies to GT's as well. The only GT that either Pogacar, Roglic or Vingegaard finished, but didn't win was the Vuelta 2023. And we all know the story of this race.
- Mar 26, 2023
- 368
- 809
- 4,480
- Mar 20, 2022
- 13,342
- 18,093
- 22,180
The problem is this dominance will probably last 2 more years.
- Oct 30, 2023
- 5,336
- 8,253
- 16,180
- Sep 14, 2019
- 710
- 1,269
- 8,180
The problem for Pogi on MSR is MVDP.
Without MVDP, big chances Pogi would have already won 2x MSR
2024 MSR good chances that no one bridges the gap on the Pogio, 2025 no one follows on Cipressa and he go solo.
It is pretty sad to say but I think unless MVP is having a bad day only luck can get Pogi to win over MVP in MSR.
And probably same thing for PR.
Without MVDP, big chances Pogi would have already won 2x MSR
2024 MSR good chances that no one bridges the gap on the Pogio, 2025 no one follows on Cipressa and he go solo.
It is pretty sad to say but I think unless MVP is having a bad day only luck can get Pogi to win over MVP in MSR.
And probably same thing for PR.
- May 10, 2024
- 117
- 254
- 1,230
Here's my first attempt. Data taken of course from PCS, the GOAT of cycling stats.
Methodology: take a cycling race and evaluate it as a series of one-to-one matches.
Then calculate ELO of riders with this system. From 1900 - 2025, each year 15 ELO points are reduced from each rider and riders with no races are eliminated from next year's list. When two riders are compared, their relative ELO difference plays a huge role in how ELO is redistributed. Read link below for more info.
I experimented a lot. The first idea was to calculate all possible matchups in a race and adjust ELO rating of all pairs of riders. ELO is standard formula used for example in chess.
Instead of calculating all N*(N-1)/2 pairs, I decided to just compare top 10 or top 20 (for one-day/gc result tables) to all others. makes sense, since in most rases places below 10/20 are not really contested and cannot be treated as "matches" between two riders. Since ELO is exchange (rider A gains X ELO and rider B loses same X amount), the calculation is stable in any pairwise situation. I have taken a list of races (GT's + all GT stages , WC races, monuments, major week races (gc only), classics), 116 races in all (past and present) and ran the calc with many different parameters. Things depend on them, of course, but one thing remains stable in all scenarios: Tadej Pogačar has the highest ELO of all time.
If you find this approach interesting, I can post more about it when I find the time.
Methodology: take a cycling race and evaluate it as a series of one-to-one matches.
Then calculate ELO of riders with this system. From 1900 - 2025, each year 15 ELO points are reduced from each rider and riders with no races are eliminated from next year's list. When two riders are compared, their relative ELO difference plays a huge role in how ELO is redistributed. Read link below for more info.
I experimented a lot. The first idea was to calculate all possible matchups in a race and adjust ELO rating of all pairs of riders. ELO is standard formula used for example in chess.
Instead of calculating all N*(N-1)/2 pairs, I decided to just compare top 10 or top 20 (for one-day/gc result tables) to all others. makes sense, since in most rases places below 10/20 are not really contested and cannot be treated as "matches" between two riders. Since ELO is exchange (rider A gains X ELO and rider B loses same X amount), the calculation is stable in any pairwise situation. I have taken a list of races (GT's + all GT stages , WC races, monuments, major week races (gc only), classics), 116 races in all (past and present) and ran the calc with many different parameters. Things depend on them, of course, but one thing remains stable in all scenarios: Tadej Pogačar has the highest ELO of all time.
If you find this approach interesting, I can post more about it when I find the time.
- Jul 14, 2024
- 76
- 76
- 780
- Mar 20, 2022
- 13,342
- 18,093
- 22,180
Don't look to results only. You need to see if he was relevant in the race.
He got third in LBL and he was closer to be 20th than 1st.
- Mar 20, 2022
- 13,342
- 18,093
- 22,180
He didn't say that. He said the only GT, Pogacar or Vingegaard or Roglic didn't win was the 2023 Vuelta. Pogacar didn't race it but Vingo and Roglic did.
More than 6 minutes behind Fulsang.
He has no chance of winning even without Pogacar.
- Mar 20, 2022
- 13,342
- 18,093
- 22,180
He has almost 2x more points than Vingegaard (2nd). He will probably have 2x more after GdL.
cyclinguptodate.com
UCI Rankings Riders Update | Tadej Pogacar remains on top after back-to-back Worlds; Remco Evenepoel closes in on the top 5
The World Championships were the main event last week, awarding many points in both the individual time trial and the road race. Tadej Pogacar and Remco Evenepoel headline this week's ranking for obvi...
cyclinguptodate.com
- Feb 20, 2012
- 54,091
- 44,477
- 28,180
And if they had been allowed to race, Vingegaard and Roglic would have been the top 2 spots in that race. It's pretty semantic really
- Mar 20, 2022
- 13,342
- 18,093
- 22,180
So Slovenia without Roglic will be even weaker. I don't see anyone but Novak in the group after the second long climb.
Honestly, having just won the WC, I think Pogacar will be thinking more about making history in Lombardy than this European Championship.
- Mar 20, 2022
- 13,342
- 18,093
- 22,180
Which is commendable but needs a big asterisk of it being Covid year and 95% of the field were those doing the Giro.
Pogacar/Roglic/Valverde/Alaphillipe etc all not there as doing the TDF schedule with the Covid bubble situation.
- Mar 20, 2022
- 13,342
- 18,093
- 22,180
MVP will never win LBL or GdL. It's out of reach for him.
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