Teams & Riders Tadej Pogačar discussion thread

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Jun 19, 2009
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I think Remco has problems staying "light". He probably loses power.
Realistically doing the longer work loads that benefit Pogacar and other GT contenders would accomplish both of those things. It's always been a balance, IMO. Could he do it if really wanted that increased climbing ability? Hard to say with the theatrics coming from Saddlegate. He doesn't deal well with actual failure when he feels he's put out the effort.
One thing he should seek some comfort in: he was that close to Pogacar in horrible ozone/air quality and terrain conditions. Granted, Pogacar rode 100km at his pace with little that resembled substantial pace changing attacks. He's gotten good at the subtle tempo changes that build and blow sh*t up.
 
Mar 20, 2022
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Pogacar and MvdP have won 15 of the last 17 major one-day races (Monuments/WC). The two they didnt win were MSR, where MvdP waited for Philipsen, and Liege, where Pogacar crashed out.
You should count Olympics IMO.
5 Races in 2025
7 races in 2024
6 races in 2023

Since 2023, we had 18 major one day races and Remco won 2, Philipsen 1 and MVP/Pogacar 15 wins.
We still have GdL where Pogacar is a strong favorite so there is a possibility MVP/Pogacar won 17 of the last 20 major one day races.
 
Jul 8, 2017
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You should count Olympics IMO.
5 Races in 2025
7 races in 2024
6 races in 2023

Since 2023, we had 18 major one day races and Remco won 2, Philipsen 1 and MVP/Pogacar 15 wins.
We still have GdL where Pogacar is a strong favorite so there is a possibility MVP/Pogacar won 17 of the last 20 major one day races.
Yeah, 3 riders are winning 22 of the last 25 (going back to 2022), with 2 of them winning 19, big one day races and you're telling me that competition nowadays is big...
Certainly the stats don't confirm it.

The scary thing is that similar thing applies to GT's as well. The only GT that either Pogacar, Roglic or Vingegaard finished, but didn't win was the Vuelta 2023. And we all know the story of this race.
 
Mar 20, 2022
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The problem is this dominance will probably last 2 more years.
Yeah, 3 riders are winning 22 of the last 25 (going back to 2022), with 2 of them winning 19, big one day races and you're telling me that competition nowadays is big...
Certainly the stats don't confirm it.

The scary thing is that similar thing applies to GT's as well. The only GT that either Pogacar, Roglic or Vingegaard finished, but didn't win was the Vuelta 2023. And we all know the story of this race.
 
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Sep 14, 2019
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The problem for Pogi on MSR is MVDP.
Without MVDP, big chances Pogi would have already won 2x MSR

2024 MSR good chances that no one bridges the gap on the Pogio, 2025 no one follows on Cipressa and he go solo.

It is pretty sad to say but I think unless MVP is having a bad day only luck can get Pogi to win over MVP in MSR.
And probably same thing for PR.
 
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Oct 30, 2023
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Reverse fortunes on positioning at the base of the cirpessa then mvp ain’t catching pogi and catches a lot of air trying
 
May 10, 2024
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Here's my first attempt. Data taken of course from PCS, the GOAT of cycling stats.
Methodology: take a cycling race and evaluate it as a series of one-to-one matches.
Then calculate ELO of riders with this system. From 1900 - 2025, each year 15 ELO points are reduced from each rider and riders with no races are eliminated from next year's list. When two riders are compared, their relative ELO difference plays a huge role in how ELO is redistributed. Read link below for more info.
I experimented a lot. The first idea was to calculate all possible matchups in a race and adjust ELO rating of all pairs of riders. ELO is standard formula used for example in chess.
Instead of calculating all N*(N-1)/2 pairs, I decided to just compare top 10 or top 20 (for one-day/gc result tables) to all others. makes sense, since in most rases places below 10/20 are not really contested and cannot be treated as "matches" between two riders. Since ELO is exchange (rider A gains X ELO and rider B loses same X amount), the calculation is stable in any pairwise situation. I have taken a list of races (GT's + all GT stages , WC races, monuments, major week races (gc only), classics), 116 races in all (past and present) and ran the calc with many different parameters. Things depend on them, of course, but one thing remains stable in all scenarios: Tadej Pogačar has the highest ELO of all time.
If you find this approach interesting, I can post more about it when I find the time.
3ka-OUtv-Imgur.png
 
Jul 14, 2024
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Very true, but I'd like to see him try!
Yeah, 3 riders are winning 22 of the last 25 (going back to 2022), with 2 of them winning 19, big one day races and you're telling me that competition nowadays is big...
Certainly the stats don't confirm it.

The scary thing is that similar thing applies to GT's as well. The only GT that either Pogacar, Roglic or Vingegaard finished, but didn't win was the Vuelta 2023. And we all know the story of this race.
Pogacar at the 2023 Vuelta?
 
Apr 21, 2025
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The problem for Pogi on MSR is MVDP.
Without MVDP, big chances Pogi would have already won 2x MSR

2024 MSR good chances that no one bridges the gap on the Pogio, 2025 no one follows on Cipressa and he go solo.

It is pretty sad to say but I think unless MVP is having a bad day only luck can get Pogi to win over MVP in MSR.
And probably same thing for PR.
I also see MSR as almost impossible for him to win.
 
Mar 20, 2022
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Mar 20, 2022
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So Slovenia without Roglic will be even weaker. I don't see anyone but Novak in the group after the second long climb.