Teams & Riders Tadej Pogačar discussion thread

[Berniece]

Saying he was lucky his opposition was not stronger is not the same as saying he lucked into 525 victories and you know it.

Claiming Pogacar is lucky with opposition on the other hand, is ridiculous... What are you even talking about? There are 2 of his major wins which have his main opponent compromised/eliminated due to crash: TdF 2021 and TdF 2024 and both of them he won so convincingly it's really hard to argue it was luck. And that's it in my book. But please, do enlighten me...

Pogacar has some of the strongest competition in cycling. He is dealing at the same time with MvdP who is going to turn out to be one one the best one-day racers of all time and Vingegaard with whom they have been 1st/2nd for a whopping 5 times in a row now.

Saying Merckx didn't have proper opposition is such a big discredit to all the amazing riders of his generation. What are you even talking about... I mean you say MVDP is the best one-day racer of all time, and you forget Merckx had to ride against De Vlaeminck. Just say if you don't know your cycling history, that's fine you know.

But to enlighten you about wins I deem Pogacar to be lucky:
TDF 2020 - Roglic crash in Dauphine
TDF 2021 - Roglic crash
TDF 2024 - Vingegaard crash
LBL 2024 - Evenepoel crash
LBL 2025 - Evenepoel crash
De Ronde 2025 - MVDP got sick beforehand
AGR 2023 - Free drafting to keep Healy away

To be perfectly clear, because I can already imagine the number of replies I will be getting. I'm not saying he wouldn't have won all of those btw. I'm saying he is lucky he didn't have to race against the best at their best, who normally would've been at their best without their issues. I think in most cases he might still have won those, but let's not pretend he isn't lucky that he didn't have to ride against the best.

 

[AmRacer]

Saying Merckx didn't have proper opposition is such a big discredit to all the amazing riders of his generation. What are you even talking about... I mean you say MVDP is the best one-day racer of all time, and you forget Merckx had to ride against De Vlaeminck. Just say if you don't know your cycling history, that's fine you know.

But to enlighten you about wins I deem Pogacar to be lucky:
TDF 2020 - Roglic crash in Dauphine
TDF 2021 - Roglic crash
TDF 2024 - Vingegaard crash
LBL 2024 - Evenepoel crash
LBL 2025 - Evenepoel crash
De Ronde 2025 - MVDP got sick beforehand
AGR 2023 - Free drafting to keep Healy away

To be perfectly clear, because I can already imagine the number of replies I will be getting. I'm not saying he wouldn't have won all of those btw. I'm saying he is lucky he didn't have to race against the best at their best, who normally would've been at their best without their issues. I think in most cases he might still have won those, but let's not pretend he isn't lucky that he didn't have to ride against the best.

Don't bring up Remco, he has never been a threat. And Mathieu was on his best. Roglic Dauphine crash didn't impact the last ITT. 2023, tactics, he learned from 2022.

 

[Berniece]

Don't bring up Remco, he has never been a threat. And Mathieu was on his best. Roglic Dauphine crash didn't impact the last ITT. 2023, tactics, he learned from 2022.

 

[James M]

Oh, not this wishful thinking again from Remco fans, granted few making it Remcos biggest achievement that he somehow is a real threat to Pogacar. How can you watch any race and come to that conclusion?

 

[vappaxbipmv]

Saying Merckx didn't have proper opposition is such a big discredit to all the amazing riders of his generation. What are you even talking about... I mean you say MVDP is the best one-day racer of all time, and you forget Merckx had to ride against De Vlaeminck. Just say if you don't know your cycling history, that's fine you know.

But to enlighten you about wins I deem Pogacar to be lucky:
TDF 2020 - Roglic crash in Dauphine
TDF 2021 - Roglic crash
TDF 2024 - Vingegaard crash
LBL 2024 - Evenepoel crash
LBL 2025 - Evenepoel crash
De Ronde 2025 - MVDP got sick beforehand
AGR 2023 - Free drafting to keep Healy away

To be perfectly clear, because I can already imagine the number of replies I will be getting. I'm not saying he wouldn't have won all of those btw. I'm saying he is lucky he didn't have to race against the best at their best, who normally would've been at their best without their issues. I think in most cases he might still have won those, but let's not pretend he isn't lucky that he didn't have to ride against the best.

I'm not going to say that RDV or Merckx is not one of the best. But just because you win a lot doesn't mean you're actually exceptionally good

For example, imagine this hypothetical scenario: peloton of 200 guys, 10 of which are pros, 50 are semi pros and the rest are amateurs. Those 10 will win a vast majority of races and a few will get a fantastic palmares, someone will be the best. Now imagine this: peloton of 200 guys, all pros and another 500 not even strong enough to make the cut. The best of the 1st example is unlikely to be the best in the 2nd example

That is to say that you can absolutely benefit from fewer overall riders and pros, and your palmares can look much better than it would actually be if there was more competition. People always make this fallacy

 

[Berniece]

I'm not going to say that RDV or Merckx is not one of the best. But just because you win a lot doesn't mean you're actually exceptionally good

For example, imagine this hypothetical scenario: peloton of 200 guys, 10 of which are pros, 50 are semi pros and the rest are amateurs. Those 10 will win a vast majority of races and a few will get a fantastic palmares, someone will be the best. Now imagine this: peloton of 200 guys, all pros and another 500 not even strong enough to make the cut. The best of the 1st example is unlikely to be the best in the 2nd example

That is to say that you can absolutely benefit from fewer overall riders and pros, and your palmares can look much better than it would actually be if there was more competition. People always make this fallacy

What's the point of using an example that doesn't resemble Merckx's case?

 

[vappaxbipmv]

What's the point of using an example that doesn't resemble Merckx's case?

It does to a lesser degree. Just because you win a *** ton of races doesn't mean that you're actually that good. It could just mean that the competition is small

 

[Berniece]

It does to a lesser degree. Just because you win a *** ton of races doesn't mean that you're actually that good. It could just mean that the competition is small

Which wasn't the case for Merckx.

 

[CyclistAbi]

But to enlighten you about wins I deem Pogacar to be lucky:
TDF 2020 - Roglic crash in Dauphine
TDF 2021 - Roglic crash

So true.

 

[vappaxbipmv]

Which wasn't the case for Merckx.

It was much smaller than today

 

[CyclistAbi]

It was much smaller than today

Isn't Merckx a tad taller?

 

[Tanakka]

Nibali has some idiotic comments, that's one of them

Yep.

Example of Pogacar not being the strongest and still winning based on race intelligence?

Fair point, but Nibali is off all the same

“Any race he wins, he wins through strength, not tactically,” Nibali said. “He attacks because he is stronger. But who wins with cunning and tactics? Van der Poel.”

MVDP can - partially - win by "cunning and tactics" because he is fast at the sprint even among classics top racers.
So all he might have to do is tire Pedersen; and he'd be a pretty favorite against the slovenian... on top of many others, on a normal sprint.
Plus in races like MSR 25, MSR 24, E3 2023, RVV 22, Scotland's 2023 WC he reaps the "tactical" benefits of Pog being present and going ballistic having to try to kill everybody, and managing to kill everyone else (not named MVDP... and once in a while WVA, Pedersen... Ganna).
So...it's not a far comparison.

That contrast sits at the heart of Nibali’s reading of Milano Sanremo. “Perhaps his limit, if you can even call it a limit, is that he thinks he can manage everything with strength,” he continued. “Look at Milano Sanremo: he tries to drop everyone on the climb, without thinking about the possibility of winning it the way I did, on the descent.”

Yeah, not the smartest interview by Vincenzo. For sure.

Pog cannot win Sanremo the way Nibali did, because the latter in spite of being an elite among the elites, wasn't a top5 favorite at MSR 2018.
That's why the Squalo was able to surprise everyone.
Tadej is always on the top 1-2 'FBI wanted list', as the modern GOAT.
Good luck with winning MSR by 'cunning and tactics': he gets more stares than Sidney Sweeney's breasts.
Add to that the fact that at races like MSR, which aren't hard enough, everybody knows he has to try to do something massive at either Poggio or Cipressa, it's not like there are so many opportunities to get "creative".
He's not getting any separation without brute force.

Therefore, what my "compaesano" said doesn't make much sense.

 

[Oldman]

Yep.

Far point, but Nibali is off all the same

MVDP can - partially - win by "cunning and tactics" because he is fast at the sprint even among classics top racers.
So all he might have to do is tire Pedersen; and he'd be a pretty favorite against the slovenian... on top of many others, on a normal sprint.
Plus in races like MSR 25, MSR 24, E3 2023, RVV 22, Scotland's 2023 WC he reaps the "tactical" benefits of Pog being present and going ballistic having to try to kill everybody, and managing to kill everyone else (not named MVDP... and once in a while WVA, Pedersen... Ganna).
So...it's not a far comparison.


Yeah, not the smartest interview by Vincenzo. For sure.

Pog cannot win Sanremo the way Nibali did, because the latter in spite of being an elite among the elites, wasn't a top5 favorite at MSR 2018.
That's why the Squalo was able to surprise everyone.
Tadej is always on the top 1-2 'FBI wanted list', as the modern GOAT.
Good luck with winning MSR by 'cunning a tactics': he gets more stares than Sidney Sweeney's breasts.
Add to that the fact that at races like MSR, which aren't hard enough, everybody knows he has to try to do something massive at either Poggio or Cipressa, it's not like there are so many opportunities to get "creative".
He's not getting any separation without brute force.

Therefore, what my "compaesano" said doesn't make much sense.

If there was a chance that Pogacar would admit that he sat on a strong rider a)because he was fatigued b)he wasn't fatigued but could tell that rider was killing himself trying to set up an attack we would know for sure. IMO he's a very astute tactician and, when he goes off early it is calculated. In a non GC races last year he'd work to get a gap fully, aware of who is behind him and what dynamics are in play. He didn't just pile on ego minutes. The long term tactical advantage is the same; make other teams work to establish a position for what he intends to do.
Undoubtedly there were times that demanded he dispatch everyone but it was usually at the end of a race. Tour of Flanders is a good example of his tactical jousts on each hill but not complete commitment until the Kwaremont and Paterberg with 12km left. He doubled his gap on the run in just to be sure. LBL was an extended version of the same tactics with his team. Fleche Wallonne actually looked like the cold, wet weather took something out of earlier ambitions and he sat on his finish sprint as the best tactic; everyone else let him do that.
Nibali won SR because he had a plan and others let him get enough distance to go kamikaze on the finish with no one near him. Smart tactics and a one-trick strategy that wouldn't have worked had someone caught him.
Nibali, like some other pros press their relevancy by making personal comparisons in that are personal. I don't speak Italian so there could be forgivable nuance to how he framed his critique. Tadej not being tactically superior is a stretch in any language.

 

[No Excuses]

The leading sports media in France and Spain, but not even nominated in UK to nominate Salah .

Dembele has changed a lot

 

[ChewbaccaDefense]

https://www.domestiquecycling.com/e...hinks-he-can-manage-everything-with-strength/

Just read this. I'd never seen these numbers compared. Hard to deny that Pog's fans claims he is the GOAT (I've said he was as well), fall short. Sorry, but you don't get the cookie yet Pog.

 

[MariaB]

Saying Merckx didn't have proper opposition is such a big discredit to all the amazing riders of his generation. What are you even talking about... I mean you say MVDP is the best one-day racer of all time, and you forget Merckx had to ride against De Vlaeminck. Just say if you don't know your cycling history, that's fine you know.

But to enlighten you about wins I deem Pogacar to be lucky:
TDF 2020 - Roglic crash in Dauphine
TDF 2021 - Roglic crash
TDF 2024 - Vingegaard crash
LBL 2024 - Evenepoel crash
LBL 2025 - Evenepoel crash
De Ronde 2025 - MVDP got sick beforehand
AGR 2023 - Free drafting to keep Healy away

To be perfectly clear, because I can already imagine the number of replies I will be getting. I'm not saying he wouldn't have won all of those btw. I'm saying he is lucky he didn't have to race against the best at their best, who normally would've been at their best without their issues. I think in most cases he might still have won those, but let's not pretend he isn't lucky that he didn't have to ride against the best.

Always here trying to diminish Pogi feats.

 

[HashRouge]

Example of Pogacar not being the strongest and still winning based on race intelligence?

Dauphine stage 1? I think MdvP was stronger but Pogacar was clever enough to sit back, because he knew that ultimately MdvP would do too much work and tire himself out for the sprint. Remco did too much work on that stage too. Pogacar can be quite canny when he needs to be. Worlds 2024 is another possible example - he read the race incredibly well and attacked when he knew he'd essentially run out of team mates. It was so early that no-one was ready and he got the jump on MdvP and Remco. Pogacar might well have been stronger than both regardless, but we never got to see a head to head match up because of how early he went. It's a good example of him getting a gap because no-one was expecting his move, rather than because he was so strong he just rode everyone off the wheel.

 

[Berniece]

Always here trying to diminish Pogi feats.

Someone asked a question.

 

[bNator]

Saying Merckx didn't have proper opposition is such a big discredit to all the amazing riders of his generation. What are you even talking about... I mean you say MVDP is the best one-day racer of all time, and you forget Merckx had to ride against De Vlaeminck. Just say if you don't know your cycling history, that's fine you know.

But to enlighten you about wins I deem Pogacar to be lucky:
TDF 2020 - Roglic crash in Dauphine
TDF 2021 - Roglic crash
TDF 2024 - Vingegaard crash
LBL 2024 - Evenepoel crash
LBL 2025 - Evenepoel crash
De Ronde 2025 - MVDP got sick beforehand
AGR 2023 - Free drafting to keep Healy away

To be perfectly clear, because I can already imagine the number of replies I will be getting. I'm not saying he wouldn't have won all of those btw. I'm saying he is lucky he didn't have to race against the best at their best, who normally would've been at their best without their issues. I think in most cases he might still have won those, but let's not pretend he isn't lucky that he didn't have to ride against the best.

I never said "MVDP is the best one-day racer of all time". I said is going to be one of the best... I also never said Merckx didn't have proper opposition - I just said in case of MSR he was lucky MvdP was not around. That doesn't mean they were all lemons at that time - it merely means MvdP's profile is ideal for following Pogi up those two climbs. There may have been better one day racers in the past, maybe even in Merckx time that had slightly different characteristics to MvdP which made Merckx's life easier...

As for your list, you have barely made 7 entries, 4 of them being there just to boost your numbers... Realistically there are only 2-3 cases where Pog would most likely score lower - TdF 2020 where the margin was thin and maybe one or two of the monuments. And I'm being generous here.

So 2-3 cases where Pog may have been lucky with competition and you call that "barely any opposition because they crashed out before major races."

 

[Berniece]

As for your list, you have barely made 7 entries, 4 of them being there just to boost your numbers... Realistically there are only 2-3 cases where Pog would most likely score lower - TdF 2020 where the margin was thin and maybe one or two of the monuments. And I'm being generous here.

So 2-3 cases where Pog may have been lucky with competition and you call that "barely any opposition because they crashed out before major races."

I disagree

 

[Fos]

I disagree

It's simpler than all that; the further back in time you go, the less likely it is that someone with superior potential to those competing at that moment has been discovered.