- Feb 12, 2025
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If you want to use berta use it to hurt or at least put the lactate on vdp, & grobschartener isn’t the one who can do that. IMO if your plan is to make the race as hard as possible, use either christin or deltoro to go all out on berta which would hurt vdp & wait at the top for everyone to comeback. Uae isn’t responsible to control the race from berta to cipressa so they just need to reorganize themselves for the position battle of cipressa.
The main issue I see with this team is they lack firepower for the first 250k.
Any other team should try to go in the early break and any other team should put the burden on UAE to chase.
Any other team should try to go in the early break and any other team should put the burden on UAE to chase.
The burden will be on Alpecin because they have a favourite - MvdP
- Jul 7, 2013
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Yup, no Wellens and Narvaez complicates things on Cipressa and earlier: they won't be able to nuke those climbs like they would like to.
Agreed MdvP is the favourite, Alpecin will control for him.
The problem will be the positioning before cipressa. Everbody wants to be at the front.
If they are in front with 2 or 3 riders and one of them is del toro they have a chance.
The best case would be if van der poel is in a position like pogacar last year. But van der Poel is one of best rider in positioning himself and he will probably be in the best possible position in front of the cipressa.
If they are in front with 2 or 3 riders and one of them is del toro they have a chance.
The best case would be if van der poel is in a position like pogacar last year. But van der Poel is one of best rider in positioning himself and he will probably be in the best possible position in front of the cipressa.
Only if they have the guys available to chase. Long breaks can't be reeled in by just one team, Imo.
Quick check of finish weather showed possible light rain. Not sure fireworks won't start earlier to chase off the faint of heart. The descent could be a tire/pressure selection exposition.
- Feb 23, 2025
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weather update: no rain and headwind in the last 40 Kms of the race, I think people will be surprised by how unselective this edition will be, because they might have in their eyes last year's edition. With this weather conditions, plus the absence of wellens/narvaez, plus the level of the peloton in this edition (I'm thinking specifically at how good visma might be this year) and the fact that everybody is prepared for a cipressa attack I believe it will be less selective than last year despite pogacar being stronger
But since Tadej Pogačar is so much stronger, wouldn’t a tougher climb actually play to his advantage?
- Sep 12, 2022
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No, it's only tougher for Pogacar, not for everyone in his wheel they don't feel as much of the wind
Yes, but if Pogi can get a separation, everyone is going to feel the wind.
The wind direction is not certain yet, but it won't be very strong.
Although it seemed like everything went wrong with the positioning before Cipressa last year, all things considered the lead-out he got was not bad at all. I rate the chances that his lead-out will be better this year at less than 50%.
The other teams will also be better prepared for the attack, all the classic riders that fancy their chances for MSR will have specifically trained their climbing.
(A comparison would be the Kwaremont in Flanders where 4 riders could follow Pogacar's first attack in 2025 when no one could in 2023 although Pogacar was stronger last year)
If Pogacar still manages to win this year even with all these factors pointing against him, it would be an incredible achievement. It is probably easier for him to win by being lucky in some kind of way than by being strong.
Although it seemed like everything went wrong with the positioning before Cipressa last year, all things considered the lead-out he got was not bad at all. I rate the chances that his lead-out will be better this year at less than 50%.
The other teams will also be better prepared for the attack, all the classic riders that fancy their chances for MSR will have specifically trained their climbing.
(A comparison would be the Kwaremont in Flanders where 4 riders could follow Pogacar's first attack in 2025 when no one could in 2023 although Pogacar was stronger last year)
If Pogacar still manages to win this year even with all these factors pointing against him, it would be an incredible achievement. It is probably easier for him to win by being lucky in some kind of way than by being strong.
Yes, I feel a Cipressa attack won't be successful this year.
They need to attack earlier. Berta is 40km from the finish. Is it difficult? Of course. But he attacked from longer distances, even considering MSR is not hard as the other races, I think this is the best possible strategy, to nuke everything on Capo Berta.
- Feb 20, 2012
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"Cipressa won't work, so you should attack earlier" is one of the more questionable pieces of advice I've seen on a cycling forum.
If Pogacar succesfully does a solo attack from Capo Berta, we really won't need to do the actual races anymore in the future. Just award him the victory for every race where he is on the startlist.
The team making the race hard there is already a task which is very difficult to execute correctly. The straight wide road is really a problem for that. I would say that to succesfully harden Berta without just blowing your own team up is even more difficult than doing a good lead-out on Cipressa.
The team making the race hard there is already a task which is very difficult to execute correctly. The straight wide road is really a problem for that. I would say that to succesfully harden Berta without just blowing your own team up is even more difficult than doing a good lead-out on Cipressa.
- Jul 7, 2013
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It could be the easiest if he's underrated before the race (and can make a surprising move at some point: even in the last 2 kms). No chance for it until he's declined: maybe then his chances will be better!
In case of headwind, attack from Capo Berta is even less likely (and significantly so) to succeed than Cipressa attack. It is more likely UAE will try to reduce the peloton there and then attack repeatedly with two options (DelToro/Pogacar) on Poggio.
But yes, for Pogacar to win MSR, he needs a decent share of luck in any case. So far, he only has bad luck (especially injuries to Wellens and Narvaez).
But yes, for Pogacar to win MSR, he needs a decent share of luck in any case. So far, he only has bad luck (especially injuries to Wellens and Narvaez).
I agree, but it less predictable.
Everyone knows they are going to attack on Cipressa, everyone is prepared, so the surprise factor of last year is gone.
- Feb 23, 2025
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- 486
- 2,380
there was no surprise effect last year, everybody knew pogacar would attack on cipressa already last year, just look at the position of ganna and vdp, they were both in top 5 entering cipressa, that is not the problem, the problems are headwind+bad team+level of mvdp on a false flat (I refuse to call anything in this parcour a climb). Vdp seems even stronger this year and honestly dropping him while going at 45-50 km/h seems impossible, the draft is huge, you save 15-20% (or more) in the wheel at those speeds
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