Teams & Riders Tadej Pogačar discussion thread

[MariaB]

The wind direction is not certain yet, but it won't be very strong.

Although it seemed like everything went wrong with the positioning before Cipressa last year, all things considered the lead-out he got was not bad at all. I rate the chances that his lead-out will be better this year at less than 50%.

The other teams will also be better prepared for the attack, all the classic riders that fancy their chances for MSR will have specifically trained their climbing.
(A comparison would be the Kwaremont in Flanders where 4 riders could follow Pogacar's first attack in 2025 when no one could in 2023 although Pogacar was stronger last year)

If Pogacar still manages to win this year even with all these factors pointing against him, it would be an incredible achievement. It is probably easier for him to win by being lucky in some kind of way than by being strong.

Yes, I feel a Cipressa attack won't be successful this year.

They need to attack earlier. Berta is 40km from the finish. Is it difficult? Of course. But he attacked from longer distances, even considering MSR is not hard as the other races, I think this is the best possible strategy, to nuke everything on Capo Berta.

 

[Red Rick]

"Cipressa won't work, so you should attack earlier" is one of the more questionable pieces of advice I've seen on a cycling forum.

 

[Peyresourde]

If Pogacar succesfully does a solo attack from Capo Berta, we really won't need to do the actual races anymore in the future. Just award him the victory for every race where he is on the startlist.

The team making the race hard there is already a task which is very difficult to execute correctly. The straight wide road is really a problem for that. I would say that to succesfully harden Berta without just blowing your own team up is even more difficult than doing a good lead-out on Cipressa.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

If Pogacar still manages to win this year even with all these factors pointing against him, it would be an incredible achievement. It is probably easier for him to win by being lucky in some kind of way than by being strong.

It could be the easiest if he's underrated before the race (and can make a surprising move at some point: even in the last 2 kms). No chance for it until he's declined: maybe then his chances will be better!

 

[The bald fraud]

In case of headwind, attack from Capo Berta is even less likely (and significantly so) to succeed than Cipressa attack. It is more likely UAE will try to reduce the peloton there and then attack repeatedly with two options (DelToro/Pogacar) on Poggio.

But yes, for Pogacar to win MSR, he needs a decent share of luck in any case. So far, he only has bad luck (especially injuries to Wellens and Narvaez).

 

[MariaB]

If Pogacar succesfully does a solo attack from Capo Berta, we really won't need to do the actual races anymore in the future. Just award him the victory for every race where he is on the startlist.

The team making the race hard there is already a task which is very difficult to execute correctly. The straight wide road is really a problem for that. I would say that to succesfully harden Berta without just blowing your own team up is even more difficult than doing a good lead-out on Cipressa.

I agree, but it less predictable.

Everyone knows they are going to attack on Cipressa, everyone is prepared, so the surprise factor of last year is gone.

 

[rafa92]

I agree, but it less predictable.

Everyone knows they are going to attack on Cipressa, everyone is prepared, so the surprise factor of last year is gone.

there was no surprise effect last year, everybody knew pogacar would attack on cipressa already last year, just look at the position of ganna and vdp, they were both in top 5 entering cipressa, that is not the problem, the problems are headwind+bad team+level of mvdp on a false flat (I refuse to call anything in this parcour a climb). Vdp seems even stronger this year and honestly dropping him while going at 45-50 km/h seems impossible, the draft is huge, you save 15-20% (or more) in the wheel at those speeds

 

[canina82]

If Pogacar succesfully does a solo attack from Capo Berta, we really won't need to do the actual races anymore in the future. Just award him the victory for every race where he is on the startlist.

The team making the race hard there is already a task which is very difficult to execute correctly. The straight wide road is really a problem for that. I would say that to succesfully harden Berta without just blowing your own team up is even more difficult than doing a good lead-out on Cipressa.

Exactly this. Capo Berta is not hard at all, hth is Pogacar gonna attack there?