And on Saturday, they can't do a worse job before Cipressa than 2025 MSR. I still think they will fail but it's not their fault Narvaez and Wellens had severe injuries.
- Jun 17, 2024
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about selecting people for positioning etc its not that easy for UAE since everyone and their grandma look at them and the onus is on them to make the selection and you cant do that with many big guys on ompaa loompa %.Catch 22.
- Jun 17, 2024
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Good theyre trying something different, especially with key people injured. I still expect it to be close to mission impossible, but you cant fault anyone for trying.
If the goal is to brute‑force everyone off the wheel on the Cipressa which it seems, that process needs to start on Berta anyway. They will clearly try that this year. The peloton will already be significantly thinned out there now.
Not having Narvaez is major loss for Pog trying to drop MVDP. The others don't have that punch. Yes, they can set a hard tempo but they did that last year and MVDP looked very good holding on; he looks even better this year.
UAE only has to pull hard a bit more than half of the flat between Berta and Cipressa because teams will start fighting for position and entrance into the climb and increase the pace then anyway
Cipressa has 4% gradients. It's very shallow for Pogacar to drop MVP (specially when MSR is so flat before Cipressa).
I think they will go all out with Felix on Berta, McNulty takes over and does the first part of flat, Vermeersch leadout into Cipressa and forst few hundred meters then Christen and Del Toro and nuclear attack. Will it be enough, we don't know
- Feb 12, 2025
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If you want to use berta use it to hurt or at least put the lactate on vdp, & grobschartener isn’t the one who can do that. IMO if your plan is to make the race as hard as possible, use either christin or deltoro to go all out on berta which would hurt vdp & wait at the top for everyone to comeback. Uae isn’t responsible to control the race from berta to cipressa so they just need to reorganize themselves for the position battle of cipressa.
The main issue I see with this team is they lack firepower for the first 250k.
Any other team should try to go in the early break and any other team should put the burden on UAE to chase.
Any other team should try to go in the early break and any other team should put the burden on UAE to chase.
The burden will be on Alpecin because they have a favourite - MvdP
- Jul 7, 2013
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Yup, no Wellens and Narvaez complicates things on Cipressa and earlier: they won't be able to nuke those climbs like they would like to.
Agreed MdvP is the favourite, Alpecin will control for him.
The problem will be the positioning before cipressa. Everbody wants to be at the front.
If they are in front with 2 or 3 riders and one of them is del toro they have a chance.
The best case would be if van der poel is in a position like pogacar last year. But van der Poel is one of best rider in positioning himself and he will probably be in the best possible position in front of the cipressa.
If they are in front with 2 or 3 riders and one of them is del toro they have a chance.
The best case would be if van der poel is in a position like pogacar last year. But van der Poel is one of best rider in positioning himself and he will probably be in the best possible position in front of the cipressa.
Only if they have the guys available to chase. Long breaks can't be reeled in by just one team, Imo.
Quick check of finish weather showed possible light rain. Not sure fireworks won't start earlier to chase off the faint of heart. The descent could be a tire/pressure selection exposition.
- Feb 23, 2025
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weather update: no rain and headwind in the last 40 Kms of the race, I think people will be surprised by how unselective this edition will be, because they might have in their eyes last year's edition. With this weather conditions, plus the absence of wellens/narvaez, plus the level of the peloton in this edition (I'm thinking specifically at how good visma might be this year) and the fact that everybody is prepared for a cipressa attack I believe it will be less selective than last year despite pogacar being stronger
The TDU was a disaster race for UAE. Two months later Vine, Staeke-laengen, Narvaez and Berg are still injured.
But since Tadej Pogačar is so much stronger, wouldn’t a tougher climb actually play to his advantage?
- Sep 12, 2022
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No, it's only tougher for Pogacar, not for everyone in his wheel they don't feel as much of the wind
Yes, but if Pogi can get a separation, everyone is going to feel the wind.
The wind direction is not certain yet, but it won't be very strong.
Although it seemed like everything went wrong with the positioning before Cipressa last year, all things considered the lead-out he got was not bad at all. I rate the chances that his lead-out will be better this year at less than 50%.
The other teams will also be better prepared for the attack, all the classic riders that fancy their chances for MSR will have specifically trained their climbing.
(A comparison would be the Kwaremont in Flanders where 4 riders could follow Pogacar's first attack in 2025 when no one could in 2023 although Pogacar was stronger last year)
If Pogacar still manages to win this year even with all these factors pointing against him, it would be an incredible achievement. It is probably easier for him to win by being lucky in some kind of way than by being strong.
Although it seemed like everything went wrong with the positioning before Cipressa last year, all things considered the lead-out he got was not bad at all. I rate the chances that his lead-out will be better this year at less than 50%.
The other teams will also be better prepared for the attack, all the classic riders that fancy their chances for MSR will have specifically trained their climbing.
(A comparison would be the Kwaremont in Flanders where 4 riders could follow Pogacar's first attack in 2025 when no one could in 2023 although Pogacar was stronger last year)
If Pogacar still manages to win this year even with all these factors pointing against him, it would be an incredible achievement. It is probably easier for him to win by being lucky in some kind of way than by being strong.
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