Question Tadej Pogacar and Mauro Giannetti

[GuntherL]

It's about time we address Pogacars remarkable rise since he joined UAE in 2019.

His first season as a junior wasn't anything special, but we have to remember that he was born later in year (September) which is a disadvantage at that age.
In his second season he definitely proved his talent by winning the Giro della Lunigiana.
However, in the entire season he only won two stages and never put any distance on his competitors.
His time trial abilities were less impressive. A 25th and 68th spot.

His first season as a U23 rider wasn't too great either.
He won a few youth jerseys, but didn't record a single stage win.

His second season was definitely better, but still hit and miss.
He won the Tour de l'Avenir, but didn't record a stage win.
He also finished 7th at the WC road race.
Promising, but not exceptional.

Then he moved to UAE. Its CEO is Mauro Gianetti, possibly the dirtiest rider and sports director in history.
Suddenly he started to win stage races (Algarve, California, and individual mountain stages in the Vuelta against the likes of Valverde and Roglic.
He also became a much better time trialist beating Mohoric and Tratnik in the Slovenian championship.

Give me a break.

 

[burning]

This image should be framed. Even these two couldn't believe what were they seeing...

 

[Cookster15]

That was way too unbelievable. That seems to be normal over the past twoish years now. At this point I'm convinced we're back to the early 2000's as far as doing goes and today is pretty much right there with some other unbelievable performances.

Well I am not a fan of Pogacar and I can't agree. He was showing great potential all last season and in 2020.

2019 ToC - 20 years old
2019 Vuelta podium
2020 Slovenian National Time Trial, beating Roglic

I think was under rated before this Tour. Obviously he won't be under rated now.

 

[Ripper]

Well I am not a fan of Pogacar and I can't agree. He was showing great potential all last season and in 2020.

2019 ToC - 20 years old
2019 Vuelta podium
2020 Slovenian National Time Trial, beating Roglic

I think was under rated before this Tour. Obviously he won't be under rated now.

LOLzzzzzzzzz

The degree of outlier is massive. Progression, sure ... but if you feel this all lines up, then no comment.

I don't think anyone in the race was under-rating him, least of all PR and his team. That was never part of the narrative for the racers.

 

[Koronin]

Well I am not a fan of Pogacar and I can't agree. He was showing great potential all last season and in 2020.

2019 ToC - 20 years old
2019 Vuelta podium
2020 Slovenian National Time Trial, beating Roglic

I think was under rated before this Tour. Obviously he won't be under rated now.

I don't think he's been underrated after what he did at la Vuelta last year.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Well I am not a fan of Pogacar and I can't agree. He was showing great potential all last season and in 2020.

2019 ToC - 20 years old
2019 Vuelta podium
2020 Slovenian National Time Trial, beating Roglic

I think was under rated before this Tour. Obviously he won't be under rated now.

For me it's all about this ITT. Not so much about his climbing or overall performance, since for me there were too many "loose ends" to make that case. He's shown in the past he was a decent/good timetrialist, but both Slovenian nationals aren't a benchmark. Last year, it was against guys who would easily lose 2-3 minutes in a long ITT against van Aert, Dumoulin & Roglic. He beat them with 29 and 45 seconds (Mohoric & Tratnik). This year there was Corona, the bike change incident and it was a purely climbing TT. He beat Roglic by a few seconds.

A year ago he was 18th in Pais Vasco, 5th in Algarve, 11th in the Vuelta. Two years ago he was only 16th in the Euro championships U23. And today he beats van Aert, Roglic and Dumoulin (easily three of the 10 most prominent/top ITTers, along with Dennis, Evenepoel, Ganna, Campenaerts, Küng) on the 30k flat part and further extends his lead on the climb. And while the three Jumbo riders are within half a minute of each other, he beats the best of them by 1m20s. It's a very remarkable progress to say the least. He's gone from subpar to decent to ridiculing worldbeaters in 2 years time. When you see him on the bike, he isn't compact like Evenepoel, Campenaerts or even Roglic, so i also don't think he's that aero or has progressed on his aero position on the bike to an extend that can explain what we're seeing.

 

[Cookster15]

LOLzzzzzzzzz

The degree of outlier is massive. Progression, sure ... but if you feel this all lines up, then no comment.

I don't think anyone in the race was under-rating him, least of all PR and his team. That was never part of the narrative for the racers.

I am sorry but were you making noise about Pogacar one year ago? If not why not? Bit late to wake up now. He has been riding strong all race. He came 3rd in the Vuelta at 20. Do I think its lines up - well yes I do at least as well as several other recent examples. Sorry if this doesn't work for you. You will need to try a little harder than "LOL"s to convince me. I am an open minded person so you should try. LOLs get zero respect. A poster from yesterday I oft disagreed with was the Hitch. But Hitch genuinely explained his points of view so I respected his line of argument. You haven't.

This is where the clinic really lets itself down. So many know it all's who leave facts logic and reason behind.

 

[Unchained]

Well, I don't know what are your standards but if a rider who finishes 5th in a 2.1 race as the Tour of Slovenia (with some decent names like Majka, Haig, Polanc, Cunego, Visconti, etc. riding) in their first U23 year and has a consistent year with 21 top-10 has, in your opinion, a season that "wasn't too great either", well you can only be satisfied with someone like Evenepoel.

I don't want to comment about his rise as I don't have any negative opinion of it, but since I first saw results of Pogacar as a junior I always considered him a pretty big prospect for the future and had his name under my radar since at least 2016.

Thanks for this post then and now..we have seen lots of young riders do things during this TDF, not crash,not ride off the front unnecessarily..and putting together some great climbing days and uphill time trial greatness..doesn't sound sinister,it's sounds of talent and control. For the haters they will turn one day into an over the top conspiracy..with 4 days left in the tour..6 or 7 riders could have stood on the boxes, nobody ran away with anything,this was a tight ultra competitive tour..
Well deserved win for Pog

 

[Cookster15]

For me it's all about this ITT. Not so much about his climbing or overall performance, since for me there were too many "loose ends" to make that case. He's shown in the past he was a decent/good timetrialist, but both Slovenian nationals aren't a benchmark. Last year, it was against guys who would easily lose 2-3 minutes in a long ITT against van Aert, Dumoulin & Roglic. He beat them with 29 and 45 seconds (Mohoric & Tratnik). This year there was Corona, the bike change incident and it was a purely climbing TT. He beat Roglic by a few seconds.

A year ago he was 18th in Pais Vasco, 5th in Algarve, 11th in the Vuelta. Two years ago he was only 16th in the Euro championships U23. And today he beats van Aert, Roglic and Dumoulin (easily three of the 10 most prominent/top ITTers, along with Dennis, Evenepoel, Ganna, Campenaerts, Küng) on the 30k flat part and further extends his lead on the climb. And while the three Jumbo riders are within half a minute of each other, he beats the best of them by 1m20s. It's a very remarkable progress to say the least. He's gone from subpar to decent to ridiculing worldbeaters in 2 years time. When you see him on the bike, he isn't compact like Evenepoel, Campenaerts or even Roglic, so i also don't think he's that aero or has progressed on his aero position on the bike to an extend that can explain what we're seeing.

Thank you. A good post. I hope Ripper takes note how it should be done.

But as you would also know stage 20 TTs are not just about the best time trialist or climber but about who is recovering the best after three weeks of racing. With the exception of Dumoulin none of those names you listed in your second paragraph are Grand Tour leaders. And since he only came on the scene last season at 20 years of age I don't think we can say Pogacar came from nowhere. He is simply young. When Contador arrived at 2006 Tour de Romandie at 23 years of age I don't recall instant claims of doping then and that was despite his rumored implication of Puerto.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Thank you. A good post. I hope Ripper takes note how it should be done.

But as you would also know stage 20 TTs are not just about the best time trialist or climber but about who is recovering the best after three weeks of racing. With the exception of Dumoulin none of those names you listed in your second paragraph are Grand Tour leaders. And since he only came on the scene last season at 20 years of age I don't think we can say Pogacar came from nowhere. He is simply young. When Contador arrived at 2006 Tour de Romandie at 23 years of age I don't recall instant claims of doping then and that was despite his rumored implication of Puerto.

That's too easy, imho. He was already strong enough last year in the Vuelta to climb with the best, and still he was only 11th in the ITT. So while you could explain his rise as a climber, for me his rise as a worldbeating ITT'er is a lot harder to take. If he really was "still too young" last year, he also wouldn't have been on the podium of the Vuelta either.

It's also combined with the fact that he beat the climbing record here, regardless of the 30k all-out ITT before the climb, including his bikechange, while in the third week...

The sad part is, you can never be sure a rider is clean. You can only be sure he's not if he gets caught.

 

[IndianCyclist]

Well the new arms race is begun. What we saw was the opening salvos of the war. The other teams are not going to go gently into the night. Especially Astana, QST, Movistar. After all their budget goal is not to be cannon fodder.

 

[gregrowlerson]

What strikes me is this ability to rebound after being on the down side in the last couple of mountain stages.

He looked to be fading in last year's Vuelta as well (losing a minute to Roglic, Valverde and others on Becerril de la Sierra) only to completely erase the field a couple of days later and get his spot on the podium.

Now exactly the same happens in the Tour. There must be something to it.

Seems a bit Vino like.

 

[TourOfSardinia]

I don't see how Pogacar has protected status.
Hardly Giuseppe Saronni's wallet?
Is Slovenia such a big new market for the UCI to develop?
Did the UAE overlords step in with backhanders?

Harder to swallow
than the Anglo/Sky/Dawg protection theory

 

[gregrowlerson]

I wish that Murray Walker was still with us, and would try his hand at commentating cycling, as his favourite phrase would be apt quite often:

"What an incredible development!"

 

[gregrowlerson]

I am sorry but were you making noise about Pogacar one year ago? If not why not? Bit late to wake up now. He has been riding strong all race. He came 3rd in the Vuelta at 20. Do I think its lines up - well yes I do at least as well as several other recent examples. Sorry if this doesn't work for you. You will need to try a little harder than "LOL"s to convince me. I am an open minded person so you should try. LOLs get zero respect. A poster from yesterday I oft disagreed with was the Hitch. But Hitch genuinely explained his points of view so I respected his line of argument. You haven't.

This is where the clinic really lets itself down. So many know it all's who leave facts logic and reason behind.

I think that people's suspicions come from the fact that Pogacar went as fast as Dumoulin on the flat section, and in addition to that, did a faster climb (and much faster than everyone but Porte, who was much slower on the flat) than everyone.

Also, whilst big natural improvements can be expected with younger riders, historically, a reason why top GT GC riders are usually in their late 20's, is because strength to ride out three week races strongly tends to build over time (having said that, Bernal is also young of course).

 

[Ripper]

I think that people's suspicions come from the fact that Pogacar went as fast as Dumoulin on the flat section, and in addition to that, did a faster climb (and much faster than everyone but Porte, who was much slower on the flat) than everyone.

Also, whilst big natural improvements can be expected with younger riders, historically, a reason why top GT GC riders are usually in their late 20's, is because strength to ride out three week races strongly tends to build over time (having said that, Bernal is also young of course).

To the first paragraph, this is exactly something I noted earlier, along with some pretty drastic changes this year and in this race.

It is interesting because there are always breakout performances and it is not like TP was an unknown or not doing well. The only thing that just made me laugh was today (it takes a fair bit). And if others were falling apart, it would be one thing, but there were some really strong rides and the level of this race appeared, based on reports and the data we've seen so far, to have been quite high. So I anticipate everyone was knackered. But major outlier performances don't tend to age well, do they? One of the only ones I can think of that has not been really trashed, at least yet, was the year of the Froomination Transformation. All the others have really been popped in one way or another.

 

[ngent41]

I don't see how Pogacar has protected status.
Hardly Giuseppe Saronni's wallet?
Is Slovenia such a big new market for the UCI to develop?
Did the UAE overlords step in with backhanders?

Harder to swallow
than the Anglo/Sky/Dawg protection theory

There probably is no protected status for a specific individual. The UCI/national federations just don't want to shoot themselves in the foot with star rider doping scandals, or they are just incompetent. If there is a protected status, it all comes down to money, and the backers of UAE easily got money for those kinda things

 

[MartinGT]

Any other tour and he would be popped. He won't on this one due to mad year it's been.

 

[SafeBet]

Well the new arms race is begun. What we saw was the opening salvos of the war. The other teams are not going to go gently into the night. Especially Astana, QST, Movistar. After all their budget goal is not to be cannon fodder.

Yeah I agree with this.
If he is not busted by the end of the year I expect fireworks in 2021.

 

[F_Cance]

As if they bust a TDF winner. Maybe in 8 years like Cobo, but never at the end of the year.

 

[macbindle]

As if they bust a TDF winner. Maybe in 8 years like Cobo, but never at the end of the year.

Landis

4 days

 

[bambino]

Landis

4 days

Was about to say that was too ridiculous to get away without notice, but then I realized yesterday was at least as ridiculous.

 

[IndianCyclist]

So far all the commentators are all skirting around the issue but i hope some reporter asks him the hard questions and he better be ready for those, young kid or not.

 

[Red Rick]

As if they bust a TDF winner. Maybe in 8 years like Cobo, but never at the end of the year.

Landis.

And they busted Contador. Came out by the time of the Worlds.

 

[hulkgogan]

So far all the commentators are all skirting around the issue but i hope some reporter asks him the hard questions and he better be ready for those, young kid or not.

If all the mainstream cycling podcasts are to go by, not gonna happen. Richard Moore, Caley Fretz and all the rest, all fan boys.

 

[Saint Unix]

Discussing his results as if it matters. Lets look at the circumstances here. He's a 21 year old rookie who's been by far the most aggressive rider in the mountains during the race, which historically is a bit suspect on its own, and he's been in relentless attack mode despite being isolated on every single mountain stage while guys like Roglic, Mas, Landa, Lopez and Porte have had at least one mountain dom to help them. Despite all the work he's done on his own, and the fact that he's seemingly been fading a bit in the last couple of days, he rocks up to a TT on the final day of a Tour with one of the hardest third weeks I can remember seeing and not only bangs out a 40 minute flat TT that would probably put him on the podium at the Worlds, but follows that with a 6.9W/kg effort on the final 16 minute climb, despite stopping on the hill for something like 15 seconds to do a bike change.

I swear he could be going up the hill on a Kawasaki and some of you would still be like "Yeah, but the Slovenian nationals, though!"