TdF '17 - stage 5: Vittel>La Planche des Belles Filles 160km

[Põhja Konn]

Re: Re:

Next time they won't let Aru go so let us be more realistic. Nevertheless very good performance by Fabio and the podium looks doable. Quintana can go home, Contador will battle for the last available podium spot with Richie. Froome remains the main favorite.

Not sure SKy could have done anything about Aru today; he was easily the strongest climber. He basically destroyed the Sky train and forced Froome to act earlier than he would have liked. It wasn't like Sky 'let him go', they were basically on their limit when he attacked and could do nothing to reel him in.

He was easily stronger than Thomas, Landa, Henao and also some of the presumed contenders like Quintana and Contador. We don't really know if he was stronger than the four who followed the Sky doms, then chased and then stopped and looked at each other and finally raced each other. He put in a continuous max effort, they didn't. Apples, oranges.

They started looking around, because Froome was unable to keep his attack going. He has the mentality of a predator, specially in the Tour, and wouldn't have stopped and started looking around if he had the legs to continue his attack. That also none of the others countered him, suggests they were all on the limit. All that strongly indicates that they were all weaker than Aru, who started attacking much earlier and kept it going to the line.

Again, we don't know that. Froome knocking off his attack is more likely to be about Porte, his presumed main threat, sitting on his wheel than an outsider up the road. Decisions about whether to go with an attack at 2.2 km with a Sky train pulling are likely to be made on the basis of assumptions about the likely speed the train will go at rather than the strength of the attacker. There are perfectly rational reasons for riders to ride as they did that say nothing about their strength relative to Aru.

All we factually know is that Aru, while putting in a continuous max effort, put 16 to 20 seconds into four riders who put in a significantly sub optimal effort, wasting time behind the Sky doms and then stopping and looking at each other. No objective conclusion about objective strength can be drawn from that apples to oranges comparison, although the question of who was the best racer today was certainly answered.

I just don't agree with the premise that Froome chose to let Aru go and concentrated on Porte and Martin, latter of whom jumped away from him anyway. Much simpler and more logical explanation is that Froome just ran out of legs trying to catch Aru and stopped because of that. Froome and co didn't gift a second to Aru, he took all he got on the account of his own strenght.

 

[yaco]

Re: Re:

It's not just today though. Aru has been absolutely flying for the past six weeks. Today was just the latest chapter in his recent return to form. 20 seconds is a big amount on a climb as short as this; I think it's clear Aru was strongest.

I don't think 5th at the Dauphine provides solid evidence he was "the strongest" rather than among the strongest.16 to 20 seconds would be impressive if it was done optimal effort versus optimal effort. In fact there would be nothing to argue about. But all of that time was won in two periods when the chasing four weren't putting in an optimal effort. So all we are left with is people projecting their preexisting opinions onto inconclusive evidence. Which is, of course, a lot of what we do on a cycling forum.

A rider for one of the rare times breaks the Sky train and you imply Aru was lucky. The Sky train was smashed to smithereens.

 

[HelloDolly]

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The pace Kwia put on the front on the early stages of the climb eventually dropped Landa and Heano before they even got on the front!

90% certain that Landa and Henao's form has been targeted to later in the race and we'll see them doing the Wout Poels for Froome this year.

OH please ...such nonsense ....

 

[SeriousSam]

They did gift plenty of seconds to Aru by virtue of not doing a continuous max effort. Now, it's true that if Froome was feeling extremely good he likely wouldn't have slowed down but just kept going so yeah, he was not feeling extremely good. But slowing down and looking for others to work rather than TTing up like Aru certainly slowed that group down

 

[JosephK]

Re: TdF '17 - stage 5: Vittel>La Planche des Belles Filles 1

Shrewd move by Sky to have Froome and Thomas sandbag it today -- keeps the worldwide interest higher ... better TV ratings. LOL.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re:

4 mori
3 colore
2 legs
1 heart

aru

just seen this, very good

 

[ontheroad]

Re: Re:

Sky and Froome were very weak by their own standards - No hard pacing by them throughout the entire climb length, and a shallow attack by the Alien was not enough today.......... Perhaps the freshness of Aru, a good day from Porte, a surprise attack by Bardet & perhaps an epic assault by Contador can break the Sky train apart.

Sky were weaker on the climb because BMC rode the whole stage at a fast tempo. Its fantastic that Aru is in form because Astana will ride hard the multi mountain stages.

If that's Sky weaker then god help us if they break into full choo choo mode. Still 6 of them there until Kwiatowski dropped off just after 3km to go.

 

[Poursuivant]

Re:

Porte did not impress me at all.

Same here, I expected more. When there was just a group of four with himself, Froome, Martin and Bardet, and they were looking at each other, he seemed to even soft pedal a bit, allowing the resurgent Contador to catch them relatively easily.

 

[Ruby United]

Re: Re:

The pace Kwia put on the front on the early stages of the climb eventually dropped Landa and Heano before they even got on the front!

90% certain that Landa and Henao's form has been targeted to later in the race and we'll see them doing the Wout Poels for Froome this year.

OH please ...such nonsense ....

So Landa top form for Giro, then down for start of Tour, then up for end of Tour. Nobody can control form like that, this isn't PCM.
Though it might be they just need to ride into the race, so to speak.

 

[huangho]

It's too early to tell, Tour is long enough to give us different horses each day, next week Nairo and Contador can create an ambush to Porte/Froome and change everything and we all might say that this is a 2-way horse battle, and the next day we might see Porte smashing them all, and then we will say that Porte will win with a leg...

Tomorrow is a diferent day, on saturdat and sunday we will have a different stage profile with different cards, so relax and enjoy!

 

[SeriousSam]

Re:

It's too early to tell, Tour is long enough to give us different horses each day, next week Nairo and Contador can create an ambush to Porte/Froome and change everything and we all might say that this is a 2-way horse battle, and the next day we might see Porte smashing them all, and then we will say that Porte will win with a leg...

Tomorrow is a diferent day, on saturdat and sunday we will have a different stage profile with different cards, so relax and enjoy!

All possible, but not probable. You can always speculate wildly and people have done that in previous years. It comes true, but only rarely, hence Froome being the overwhelming favourite at this point just like he was in previous years.

 

[jilbiker]

I still think this TDF will be won by a newbie (one who has not won TDF before). Aru, not sure but I am thinking Porte or Martin.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Re: Re:

It's not just today though. Aru has been absolutely flying for the past six weeks. Today was just the latest chapter in his recent return to form. 20 seconds is a big amount on a climb as short as this; I think it's clear Aru was strongest.

I don't think 5th at the Dauphine provides solid evidence he was "the strongest" rather than among the strongest.16 to 20 seconds would be impressive if it was done optimal effort versus optimal effort. In fact there would be nothing to argue about. But all of that time was won in two periods when the chasing four weren't putting in an optimal effort. So all we are left with is people projecting their preexisting opinions onto inconclusive evidence. Which is, of course, a lot of what we do on a cycling forum.

A rider for one of the rare times breaks the Sky train and you imply Aru was lucky. The Sky train was smashed to smithereens.

Where did I say or imply that Aru was "lucky" to smash up a Sky train that clearly couldn't follow him?

That's not what is being debated, because there's nothing to debate on that subject. Aru was clearly stronger that (a) the much vaunted Sky doms, Thomas, Landa, Henao, etc, (b) some presumed big contenders, like Contador and Quintana and (c) everyone else in the field bar four riders. What is being discussed is whether putting 16-20 seconds into those four riders indicates that he was stronger than those four riders when he was putting in a continuous optimal effort and they spent two prolonged periods not doing so.

My view is that we can't know, because they wasted at least that amount of time, firstly sitting behind a collapsing Sky train and then looking at each other after Froome's attack. Just look at how much ground the well and truly dropped second chase group made up on them while they did that. A couple of others have a different opinion, one which in my view concludes too much about who was the strongest in a lab sense from who was the best racer on a given day.

 

[klintE]

This shows difference between usual 2.UWT and GT. Porte didn't smash anything today
Also disappointing performance from Contador, Nairito, Majka and Birdsong,.
But hope was not lost.
Aru finally found his form and Irish Martin has a full powerbank. It won't be 'easy peasy' for Sky.

 

[yaco]

Re: Re:

Sky and Froome were very weak by their own standards - No hard pacing by them throughout the entire climb length, and a shallow attack by the Alien was not enough today.......... Perhaps the freshness of Aru, a good day from Porte, a surprise attack by Bardet & perhaps an epic assault by Contador can break the Sky train apart.

Sky were weaker on the climb because BMC rode the whole stage at a fast tempo. Its fantastic that Aru is in form because Astana will ride hard the multi mountain stages.

If that's Sky weaker then god help us if they break into full choo choo mode. Still 6 of them there until Kwiatowski dropped off just after 3km to go.

This is on a solitary 6km climb. How will they go in multi mountain stages.

 

[HelloDolly]

While Aru was the strongest ...but there wasn't that much in it as you clearly see Froome and Porte were marking each other and still for me are the strongest in the race ...

Everyone on this forum are mad to discount Dan MArtin...excellent ride today & Monday as he soaks up bonus seconds
yeah and where is all the Betencur, LaTour, Landa hype ??? Dan Martin is the real thing in comparison in THIS race

And the Tour changed the course to have few MNT finishes , mainly it is agreed to combat SKY ....would be ridiculous that inadvertently they may have played into SKYs hand ....not enough now to help Aru & Richie (Contador & Quintana) take time back...oh the irony of it all

 

[Rollthedice]

Nieve's pace was too slow, he was no Poels so in theory anybody could've attacked, it wasn't as they were on their limits. Aru choose to go and nobody closed it down right then. Thomas couldn't follow, we saw in the end his form so later Froome decided to take matters into his own hands. Next time when Aru will attack be sure that Froome or Richie will go with him and then we'll see if Aru can drop them all, not saying that he is not capable.
Re-watch the 2012 stage, with 3-2.5 K to go there were about 8 guys left, three Sky. Richie and Froome pulling 450W with Wiggo, no way anybody could've attacked.

 

[clydesdale]

Re: TdF '17 - stage 5: Vittel>La Planche des Belles Filles 1

I got something right! Good job Aru...love that guy, good stage.

Regarding Porte: I will not and do not understand the faith people have in this guy. I think he will end up in the 4-7 range overall. He will crack and lose three minutes on some climb later on.

Regarding Bardet: I'm a fan of his and I thought he was fine here. He isn't really an explosive rider so he will do better later. I don't think he has what it takes to win overall unless the others let him go early on a climb. Still, I think he will do fine.

Regarding Pinot: I read an interview where he said he wasn't interested in today and he will be looking for stages later on in the tour.

Dan Martin: Similar feelings toward him as Porte. Good on them if they win, but there are a long ways down the list of people I'd put money on.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Further down the order:

Among the non team leaders who would still be expected to be good here, Henao, Kreuziger, Chaves and Mollema were all poor. Roche was surprisingly strong.

Of the prospective leaders: Fuglsang, Talansky, Barguil in order bad, worse, terrible

 

[wheresmybrakes]

Sky DS said that they got some of their doms to drop back to save themselves for later stages as its still early doors in the Tour. Maybe that's why they seemed to disappear about 2/3 to go.

 

[clydesdale]

Re:

Further down the order:

Among the non team leaders who would still be expected to be good here, Henao, Kreuziger, Chaves and Mollema were all poor. Roche was surprisingly strong.

Of the prospective leaders: Fuglsang, Talansky, Barguil in order bad, worse, terrible

Wouldn't Mollema be here for Contador? I never really expected anything from him.

 

[Krokro]

Amazing Aru. I've such a special feeling for that guy. Can't realistically see him winning with the last TT and Sky train but he should be a real plague for them on the mountains. He seems on top top form. He tested his legs today, gained some time. Now he can recover the following days. Just affraid by the help he can get on the mountains.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

Nieve's pace was too slow, he was no Poels so in theory anybody could've attacked, it wasn't as they were on their limits. Aru choose to go and nobody closed it down right then. Thomas couldn't follow, we saw in the end his form so later Froome decided to take matters into his own hands. Next time when Aru will attack be sure that Froome or Richie will go with him and then we'll see if Aru can drop them all, not saying that he is not capable.
Re-watch the 2012 stage, with 3-2.5 K to go there were about 8 guys left, three Sky. Richie and Froome pulling 450W with Wiggo, no way anybody could've attacked.

You make it sound as though forcing Froome act alone and earlyish wouldn't be a major result for Aru, or any of the other contenders. One of the biggest obstacles for the other contenders is getting Froome isolated. Once he is, then they can in theory take turns attacking him.

It's a shame that most of the other big mountain finishes - Peyresourde, Galibier, Foix - are either shallow gradients or have a long, gradual descent afterwards where the Sky train will still be very useful. Basically leaves just Chat and Izoard for Aru/Porte/Bardet to take the 1:30" or so they need.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Re: Re:

Sky and Froome were very weak by their own standards - No hard pacing by them throughout the entire climb length, and a shallow attack by the Alien was not enough today.......... Perhaps the freshness of Aru, a good day from Porte, a surprise attack by Bardet & perhaps an epic assault by Contador can break the Sky train apart.

Sky were weaker on the climb because BMC rode the whole stage at a fast tempo. Its fantastic that Aru is in form because Astana will ride hard the multi mountain stages.

If that's Sky weaker then god help us if they break into full choo choo mode. Still 6 of them there until Kwiatowski dropped off just after 3km to go.

This is on a solitary 6km climb. How will they go in multi mountain stages.

I don't think we can tell very much from this kind of effort. They got suddenly smashed by one of the strongest climbers doing an anaerobic 2km charge. Usually the big advantage of the train is that each of them can take it in turn to bury themselves completely riding against riders who can't risk killing themselves before the finish. That doesn't apply with a steep 2 km to go. A second advantage, drafting, is also reduced on very steep inclines.

What we can say is that it doesn't look as if Sky has a single super dom who is by himself as strong as almost any challenger to Froome, thank God.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Re: Re:

Further down the order:

Among the non team leaders who would still be expected to be good here, Henao, Kreuziger, Chaves and Mollema were all poor. Roche was surprisingly strong.

Of the prospective leaders: Fuglsang, Talansky, Barguil in order bad, worse, terrible

Wouldn't Mollema be here for Contador? I never really expected anything from him.

Yes, but he wasn't there for Contador, he was back down the mountain! Look at where the top doms for Froome and Porte were.